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18 May 2024 - 02:30 

- SF

Australia - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
VS
Melbourne Victory

Prediction :

Under 2.5

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Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction & Betting Tips - A-League

 by Ian John in Football Predictions

Wellington Phoenix faces Melbourne Victory in the second leg of their A-League Championship playoff semi-final on Saturday (kick off 7.30am UK Time). After a hard-fought first game at the Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, the teams could not be separated and headed into this game after a 0-0 draw. That seems to hand Wellington the advantage, given that they have won their last six games at home and also ten of their 13 league games played at the Sky Stadium. That run included a narrow 1-0 win over today’s opponents in April. The winner will progress into the playoffs' final for a shot at the A-League Championship against either Sydney City FC or Central Coast Mariners.

Although Melbourne Victory could not establish a first-leg lead, this tie is far from over. Tony Popovic’s team have played four games against the Phoenix this season, drawing three and losing just once. All four of those games have been very tight, just as the first leg between the two was at the weekend. One issue that Victory will have to overcome is that they have won just one game in their last eight away matches, drawing five of those games and losing two. Victory have not won any of their last five games, losing two, drawing three. It will certainly be a tough test for the Big V to earn a place in the final, and given the closely contested nature of all four previous games between the two this season, extra time and penalties could come into contention.

The Best Betting Odds for Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory Match

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Bet365
451 13 1.04
Ladbrokes
2.45 2.87 2.7
NetBet
2.32 3.05 2.57
Betwinner
2.53 3.22 2.88
Melbet
2.61 3.52 2.58
Tonybet
2.46 3.2 2.85
Check all Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory odds
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What is the prediction for the football match between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory?

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/05/2024 between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory in A-League :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.27% for a win of Wellington Phoenix against Melbourne Victory with odds of 451 at Bet365.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory is 34.82% with odds of 13 at Bet365.
  • Our prediction model gives a 13.9% chance ⭐ for a win of Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix with odds of 2.88 at Betwinner.

Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory Prediction and Best Odds:

Wellington Phoenix Melbourne Victory Prediction Probability Odds
Wellington Phoenix wins 51.27% 451 at Bet365
Under 2.5 55.95% 2.42 at Tonybet
Both Team To Score 52.08%
Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Wellington Phoenix 23.06% 6 at Bet365

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Form

Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory Last Matches

Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix Last matches
W L W D W D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

Total goals
1.67
BTTS
33%
Goals scored
1.17
Goals conceded
0.5
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%

12 May 2024 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
0 :  0
Wellington Phoenix

27 Apr 2024 - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
3 :  0
Macarthur FC

19 Apr 2024 - A-League

Newcastle United Jets
1 :  1
Wellington Phoenix

12 Apr 2024 - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
1 :  0
Melbourne Victory

6 Apr 2024 - A-League

Central Coast Mariners
2 :  1
Wellington Phoenix

30 Mar 2024 - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
1 :  0
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory Last matches
W L D L D D
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

Total goals
2.17
BTTS
50%
Goals scored
1
Goals conceded
1.17
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%

12 May 2024 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
0 :  0
Wellington Phoenix

5 May 2024 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
1 :  1
Melbourne City

27 Apr 2024 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
3 :  4
Western Sydney Wanderers

20 Apr 2024 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
0 :  0
Brisbane Roar

12 Apr 2024 - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
1 :  0
Melbourne Victory

6 Apr 2024 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
2 :  1
Melbourne City

Wellington Phoenix against Melbourne Victory : Head to Head (H2H)

Wellington Phoenix

25 %

Draw

75 %

Melbourne Victory

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

Total goals
1.25
BTTS
50%
Goals scored (Team 1)
0.75
Goals scored (Team 2)
0.5
Over 2.5
0%
Under 2.5
100%

12 May 2024 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
0 :  0
Wellington Phoenix

12 Apr 2024 - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
1 :  0
Melbourne Victory

19 Jan 2024 - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
1 :  1
Melbourne Victory

10 Nov 2023 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
1 :  1
Wellington Phoenix
Improve your sports betting with our football team comparison tool (100+ statistics)

Wellington Phoenix against Melbourne Victory Lineups: Starting 11

Wellington Phoenix

Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1

40
A. Paulsen
6
T. Payne
3
F. Surman
4
S. Wootton
19
S. Sutton
14
A. Rufer
11
B. Kraev
15
N. Pennington
10
D. Ball
8
B. Old
7
K. Barbarouses
10
B. Fornaroli
19
D. Arzani
28
R. Bonevacia
17
N. Velupillay
25
R. Teague
27
J. Valadon
3
A. Traore
21
R. Miranda
5
D. Da Silva
2
J. Geria
20
P. Izzo

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Melbourne Victory

Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory Key Points

  1. Five of Wellington Phoenix's last eight games have seen under 2.5 goals scored. That includes two of their last three home games.
  2. Four of Melbourne Victory's last five games have seen under 2.5 goals scored. They have drawn three and lost two of those matches.
  3. These two teams have the smallest percentage of games with Over 2.5 Goals in the A-League. Wellington with 46% of their games and Melbourne Victory with 41%.
  4. Phoenix have the best defensive record in the A-League, conceding just 26 goals in 28 games. However, their 42 goals scored ranks just tenth out of the 12 A-League teams this season.
  5. All four games between the two teams this season have seen under 2.5 goals scored.
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Our Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction

Every game between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory this season has been extremely close. There's nothing in the data to suggest that this semi-final second-leg playoff tie will be any different. The key element in this tie is that the teams are level after the away leg for Wellington and with their excellent home form, that should give them an advantage. That said, the bookmakers still have Victory as the favourites. Our Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory prediction however is for another tight game and under 2.5 goals to be scored.

Prediction :

Under 2.5

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction
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