French Ligue 1 2023/24 Predictions & Betting tips

Find our free Ligue 1 prediction for who we believe will be the top teams in the 2023-24 season. We'll supply you with plenty of information for your sports betting with our expert betting predictions.

Ligue 1 presentation and predictions - Football

Ligue 1 is the competition that gamblers love to bet on not just in France, but around the world as well. Throughout the season, the matches involving the top 18 French teams have bets placed on them. Plenty of focus is placed on the battle to win the title, qualify for Europe or avoid relegation. 

From the first matchday in August to the last in May 2024, our experts' Ligue 1 predictions will help you get the best out of online sports betting sites. Discover our general predictions below, as well as statistics and tips on how to make the best Ligue 1 football predictions. Predictions on every Ligue 1 matchday are always a thrill.

Ligue 1 winner prediction: who will win the championship and the league title?

In its first 18-team season since the reform was approved in June 2021, Ligue 1 looks set to be hotly contested from top to bottom until the end of the 2023-2024 season.

From the Velodrome to Pierre Mauroy, Groupama Stadium and Parc des Princes, France's top clubs will be vying for the league title, places in the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League, and simply to stay in the top flight.

To little surprise, PSG have already wrapped up the league title with a few matches still to play in the season. It marks the 12th Ligue 1 title for the Parisians as well as their 10th in the last 12 years alone. PSG have accumulated a record of 20 wins, 10 draws and only one defeat this campaign as they sit 12 points clear of second-place Monaco with only thre games remaining. Teams simply couldn't cope with Les Rouges-et-Bleus' potent attack which has blasted in 76 goals in 31 matches played (2.45 average per game).

Olympique de Marseille, a regular in recent seasons and one of the biggest clubs in Ligue 1 history, as well as the usual Rennes, Monaco and Lyon will have to duke it out for the European qualification spots as PSG have locked up the Ligue 1 trophy.

Ligue 1 prediction - current odds on the favorites to win the French title

Odds for this selection are currently not available as PSG have already been crowned champions. For more Ligue 1 betting markets, head over to Bet365.

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Ligue 1 prediction on the Top 4: who will qualify for the Champions League?

This season, in addition to the eventual French champions, the teams finishing second and third in Ligue 1 will qualify for the group stages of the 2024-2025 Champions League. Previously it was only the top two that would secure direct qualification to the group stage (without having to play qualifiers). However, that's changed as the Champions League now has a new format in effect for the current season. The good news for French clubs is that the top three finishing clubs will all qualify directly to the UCL group stage while fourth-place qualifies for third-qualifying round.

There have been a number of surprises in the 2023/24 Ligue 1 season, perhaps none bigger than Stade Brestois' remarkable turnaround. After finishing 14th in the previous campaign, manager Eric Roy has guided Brest to an 16-8-7 record, putting them in third-place and in prime position to secure their best ever Ligue 1 finish (which currently stands at eighth-place in 1987) as well as a spot in the Champions League. While many may have been expecting this unlikely top four contender to eventually fall off, Les Pirates have done anything but. They now sit one point ahead of fourth-place Lille and four points ahead of fifth-placed OGC Nice.

Our prediction for the four Champions League places is as follows: PSG, Lille, and Stade Brestois .

Ligue 1 prediction - current odds on the favorites for a place in the Top 4

The top four odds for Ligue 1 aren't currently available. Be sure to check back regularly as we'll have the latest odds updated as soon as they are posted. In the meantime, check out 1xBet to find all current Ligue 1 bets.

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Who Will Finish in the Top Five?

As well as the winner of the French Cup (the League Cup has now ended), the fifth-placed Ligue 1 side will qualify for the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League. It used to be the side finishing fourth but that's changed this season due to the new format. If the French Cup winners finish in the top five in Ligue 1, then it'll be the team finishing sixth will take the Europa League place. OGC Nice have been able to seperate themselves from the rest of the pack in recent weeks and now look set to secure Europa League football for next season. They currently hold a five-point lead over sixth-place Lens with only three matches remaining.

It's as a safe bet that Ligue 1's top five will include these sides. Our prediction: PSG, Monaco, Lille, Brest and Nice.

Ligue 1 prediction - odds on the favorites for a place in the Top 5

Odds are not currently available from bookmakers for this Top 5 bet. In the meantime, visit Bet365 to find all current Ligue 1 bets.

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Who Will Finish in the Top Six?

This season, it's the team that finishes sixth in Ligue 1 that will qualify for the 2024-25 Conference League rather than the fifth as was the case in previous seasons. However, if a team that finishes in the top five wins the French Cup, it'll be the team in seventh that will qualify.  

It's a tight race in the final few matchdays between Lens, Marseille and Lyon to finish sixth. Lens currently hold the advantage with a two-point lead while the others find themselves deadlocked on 44 points. Ultimately, we believe RC Lens experience finishing second in the standings last season will serve them well as they should be able to hold their nerve and qualify for a second straight campaign of European competition. 

Our prediction: PSG, Monaco, Lille, Brest, Nice and Lens in the top six.

Ligue 1 prediction - Odds on a Top Six Finish

The bookmakers don't currently have odds posted for a top six finish bet. In the meantime, visit Unibet to find all current Ligue 1 bets.

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Relegation prediction: which L1 clubs will be relegated?

At the bottom of the table, the battle to stay up is also likely to be fierce in Ligue 1 this season. As a reminder, the clubs ranked 17th and 18th at the end of the French championship will be relegated to Ligue 2 for the 2024-2025 season, and the club ranked 16th will play a play-off against a club from Ligue 2 in order to stay up. A number of clubs are involved in this quest to avoid the last three places, and we can imagine the following predictions: Metz, Lorient and Le Havre among the bottom three.

Ligue 1 prediction - bottom three finish

• Metz - 1.03
• Clermont - 1.25
• Lorient - 1.29
• Montpellier - 4.50
• Nantes - 7.50
• Le Havre - 8.00
• Strasbourg - 8.00
• Toulouse - 13.00
• Lyon - 41.00

Odds from bet365.com 

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Make a Ligue 1 2023-2024 prediction on the Ligue 1 top scorer

There is one particularly hotly contested individual title in Ligue 1: top scorer. So which striker can become the French league's top scorer in 2023-2024? The top scorer in Ligue 1 over the last five seasons has been Kylian Mbappé. He's still at PSG (though Neymar has left) but it looks like being his last season there. It's hard to back against him not being the top scorer again this season.

Mbappé has been dominating the league in the 2023/24 season and is well clear atop the scoring charts with his tally of 21 goals in 21 matches. The next highest is Lyon's Alexandre Lacazette who has registered 12 Ligue 1 goals so far. Below you can find a list of the league's top goalscorers for the 2023/24 campaign:

Goalscorer (team)	Goals (penalty goals)
Kylian Mbappé (PSG)	21 (6)
Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon)	12 (1)
Jonathan David (Lille)	11(1)
Wissam Ben Yedder (Monaco)	11 (1)
Thijs Dallinga (Toulouse)	8 (1)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Marseille)	8 (2)
Takumi Minamino (Monaco)	7 (0)
Mostafa Mohamed (Nantes)	7 (2)
Akor Adams (Montpellier)	7 (0)

Ligue 1 prediction - odds for the top scorer 

The top scorer odds are currently being updated by the betting sites and are unavailable at the moment. In the meantime, visit Bet365.com to find all current Ligue 1 bets.

Odds from  bet365.com   

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Information for inexperienced gamblers - how do you bet on Ligue 1?

Ligue 1 is France's premier league football championship. This elite competition pits France's top 18 teams against each other, with each side playing the others home and away. Between August and December, all the clubs play each other once, and the operation is repeated between January and May. So each team plays a total of  34 games..

At the end of the championship, several places have an impact on the future of the clubs: 

• The club ranked first is French champion and qualifies for the Champions League.
• The clubs ranked 2nd and 3rd qualify for the Champions League group stages
• The club placed 4th qualifies for the Champions League third qualifying round
• The club in 5th position qualifies for the Europa League
• The club finishing sixth goes into the Europa Conference League
• If the side winning the French Cup finishes in the top five, then sixth goes into the Europa League and seventh into the Conference League.
• The 16th-placed club goes into a relegation play-off.
• Clubs in 17th and 18th place are relegated to Ligue 2.

There are therefore several bets to place in the French football championship, which explains why the Ligue 1 prediction is the most popular among French punters at the best online bookmakers every week.

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How to make good predictions on Ligue 1 matches?

Making a winning prediction on Ligue 1 requires knowledge of the league, but also good betting practice. SportyTrader has been a Ligue 1 specialist for a number of years and has some key tips on how to make the right predictions: 

• Look at the current form of the Ligue 1 teams
• Take into account the form of the Ligue 1's star players
• Know the team news for Ligue 1
• Take stock of the importance of the match in Ligue 1
• Analyse the latest French league stats

These 5 tips for predicting Ligue 1 matches are the most important according to our experts, although that's not all there is to it. We've broken them down in more detail for you below.

Look at the current form of the Ligue 1 teams

The first thing you need to do to make a reliable Ligue 1 prediction is to check the latest results of the two clubs for your football prediction. A club like PSG are playing Lens, but haven't won in 3 weeks, while Lens are unbeaten in 15 games? Despite PSG's status as favourites, a reliable prediction could be to play the double chance of a draw or Lens. An in-form club will always be preferable for your Ligue 1 bets.

On this point, we would like to stress the importance of looking not only at the latest scores, but also at the performances achieved. Possession, Expected Goals (xG), number of shots conceded, shots on target, fouls committed or received, etc. will always be important. Don't forget that even a dominant team can suffer defeat if it luck is against them.

Take into account the form of Ligue 1's star players

Just as you need to take into account the collective form of the clubs for your Ligue 1 predictions, you also need to focus on the individual form of each team's star players. Imagine, for example, that a club's top scorer hasn't scored in 10 games, or that the usually brilliant goalkeeper has made two notable blunders: their poor form will then have to be taken into account when predicting the scenario for the match in question.

Never forget that a Ligue 1 team can often be dependent on one or two players in terms of performance, and that when these men are not performing well, results are not always forthcoming. Case in point: Rennes were without Martin Terrier and Benjamin Bourigeaud last term.

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Know the team news for Ligue 1

Following on from the previous tip, we urge you to take a look at the list of players who will be unavailable for their clubs each matchday. Whether we're talking about injury, suspension or even being sidelined by a coach, important players may be missing and their absences could have a major impact on their teams' results.

Is the club captain suspended? Can't line up in the usual central huddle because a defender is injured? Has the top scorer been sidelined for misconduct in training? Be wary and don't bet too much money at the bookmakers with your Ligue 1 prediction. Unfortunately, you could be in for a nasty surprise.

Take stock of the importance of the Ligue 1 Uber Eats match

Another good Ligue 1 prediction tip is to look at the psychological and mental environment of the match you want to bet on. A number of factors need to be taken into account here: rivalry between clubs, statements in the media before kick-off, tense final encounter, major stakes in the match... anything that can have a mental impact on the teams should not be overlooked.

If you are a fan of Over 2.5 predictions in Ligue 1, for example (more than 2.5 goals in total), be wary of duels where the pressure is high (relegation at the end of the season, derby), which are less likely to be prolific in terms of goals. If a team is still on a 6-game losing streak against their opponents, you should also avoid banking on their success, as they will no doubt have an inferiority complex. There are many possible scenarios, and it's up to you to analyse them carefully (our expert tipsters take them into account in their predictions for this weekend's Ligue 1 matches).

Analyse the latest French Championship stats

Finally, as a fifth piece of advice, systematically analyse the statistics of each club in Ligue 1. Knowing the different stats will help you make better predictions for the matches, and bet like an expert on alternative bets (number of goals, exact score, result, half-time with the most goals, etc.). 

Has a team scored more than 2.5 goals in 80% of its Ligue 1 matches since the start of the season? You can give it a try in this weekend's match. This is just one of the many examples you can find by reading the statistics. Don't hesitate to take advantage of a bookmaker's bonus to try your luck.

To finish with these main tips, you should know that our team of writers systematically takes them into account for each Ligue 1 prediction this season, as well as around ten other algorithmic parameters.

By simply consulting our Ligue 1 result predictions, you can be sure of getting the most reliable overall view possible of the various matchdays. Get into the habit of reading our predictions before each Ligue 1 weekend.

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What not to do for your Ligue 1 predictions

If you want to be successful in your Ligue 1 predictions, there are a few things you should avoid doing. Here's what we strongly advise against when making a Ligue 1 prediction: 

• Not analysing the Ligue 1 match
• Only take a club's prestige into account
• Bet on the lowest odds for no reason
• Betting on a Ligue 1 match with nothing at stake at the end of the season
• Chasing losses (betting a higher stake in an attempt to "make back" a loss)
• Betting on bookmakers' boosted odds without any analysis
• Blindly betting on your favourite team on a regular basis

Every week, many beginners and experienced punters alike get caught out and lose money too easily by adopting one of these behaviours. So make sure you don't get it wrong this season when betting on Ligue 1.

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Ligue 1 statistics you need to know for your predictions

Getting the most out of your Ligue 1 bets also means knowing the key statistics for the French league. Here are the figures to remember for your Ligue 1 predictions, taken from the current 2023/24 season:

• Home win percentage: 39%
• Draw percentage: 27%
• Away win percentage: 34%
• Average goals: 2.66 per game
• Over 1.5 goals : 74%
• Over 2.5 goals : 51%
• Over 3.5 goals : 28%
• "Both teams score: yes": 53%.
• Average home goals scored: 1.42 per game
• Average away goals scored: 1.24 per game
• Goals scored in first half: 45%
• Goals scored in second half: 55%
• Exact score 0-0: 9.4% of matches
• Most frequent score: 1-1 (10.8% of games)
• Most frequent halftime score: 0-0 (32.7% of games)

For your Ligue 1 sports bets, notice that the home win percentage is noticably lower than other top European leagues. Should the odds and the analysis line up, backing the away team on the double chance could provide some very attractive betting opportunities. The current Ligue 1 season has also seen a dropoff in the average match goals (from 2.81 to 2.66) so be wary when placing "over" bets and double check your data to ensure it is a profitable play over the long run.

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In short: how to make the right predictions for Ligue 1 matches?

To make reliable and winning predictions on Ligue 1 football, you need to do a number of things: analyse the matches, take into account the best practices mentioned on this page, know how the league works and the most important statistics.

If you don't have the time to study each Ligue 1 match in depth, you can simply consult the predictions of our L1 specialists, available every week at the top of this page. Free, open access and 100% manual and verified (no 100% automatic and robotic analysis!), they will help you make the right bet this season on the French Championship.

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Our current Ligue 1 predictions

Ligue 1: Best Odds

Odds are not yet available for this competition.

Are you particularly interested in French clubs? Take a look at our Ligue 2 prediction to guess who will be promoted to Ligue 1, and our Champions League prediction to follow the progress of the French teams. 

If you want to stay focused on the French Championship, our Ligue 1 odds comparator is also available free of charge, as is our  Ligue 1 Livescore . Everything you need to enjoy your favorite competition.