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Switzerland vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips - Euro
by Ian John in Euro Predictions
After an enthralling end to the Group Stages of Euro 2024, we now head into the Knockout Phase. Switzerland face Italy in the first of the eight Round of 16 ties in what promises to be a very close game between these two neighbouring rivals.
Berlin’s Olympiastadion will host the game between the teams that finished second in Group A and Group B. Switzerland collecting five points, to Italy’s four.
Forget maths, permutations and possible future opponents. The aim is simple for teams in the Round of 16; Win the game and progress, or lose and go home!
Switzerland and Italy look every well-matched on paper and on recent performances, so this should be a very close encounter to kick off what should be the first of eight dramatic Round of 16 ties at Euro 2024!
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The Best Betting Odds for Switzerland v Italy Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 | 51 | 501 |
|
|
3.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
|
|
1 | 51 | 501 |
|
|
1 | 51 | 501 |
|
|
3.25 | 2.85 | 2.6 |
|
|
3.32 | 2.87 | 2.48 |
|
|
3.32 | 2.87 | 2.48 |
|
|
1.01 | 29 | 100 |
|
|
3.38 | 2.9 | 2.42 |
|
|
3.4 | 2.95 | 2.44 |
|
|
3.53 | 2.99 | 2.45 |
|
|
1 | 23 | 101 |
|
|
3.5 | 2.85 | 2.5 |
|
|
3.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
|
|
3.25 | 2.82 | 2.65 |
|
|
3.3 | 2.88 | 2.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Switzerland and Italy?
Our prediction for the Switzerland vs Italy match is: A draw at full-time.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 29/06/2024 between Switzerland and Italy in Euro :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 29.02% for a win of Switzerland against Italy with odds of 3.53 at Vbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Switzerland vs Italy is 51.29% with odds of 51 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 19.69% chance ⭐ for a win of Italy vs Switzerland with odds of 501 at Bet365.
Switzerland - Italy Prediction and Best Odds:
| Switzerland Italy Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 51.29% | 51 at Bet365 |
| Under 2.5 | 60.14% | 1.91 at Vbet |
| Both Team To Score | 60.42% | 2.12 at Unibet |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 33.22% | 4.33 at Bet365 |
Switzerland vs Italy Form
Switzerland and Italy Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Jun 2024 - Euro
19 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2023 - Euro
15 Oct 2023 - Euro
12 Sep 2023 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
21 Nov 2023 - Euro
15 Nov 2023 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
17 Nov 2023 - Euro
14 Oct 2023 - Euro
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
21 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
20 Nov 2023 - Euro
17 Oct 2023 - Euro
9 Sep 2023 - Euro
Switzerland vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
67 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Nov 2021 - World Cup
5 Sep 2021 - World Cup
16 Jun 2021 - Euro
Switzerland - Italy: Form Analysis
Switzerland come into this game having finished second to Germany in Group A. They are unbeaten after their three group games.
They began the tournament well, beating Hungary 3-1 in their opener before drawing 1-1 in their next two games against Scotland and hosts Germany.
Murat Yakin’s team have proven themselves very difficult to beat.
Since going out of the 2022 World Cup at the Round of 16 stage, they have lost just one game, a 1-0 defeat away to Romania in a Euro qualifier back in November 2023.
A win here for the Swiss would ensure that they match their best-ever performance at the Euros, which they achieved in reaching the quarterfinals in 2020. They achieved that by knocking out France on penalties in the Round of 16.
European Championship holders Italy qualified from Group B with four points. Their tournament started poorly, conceding the quickest-ever goal at a Euros to Albania, before they turned the game around to win 2-1.
A narrow 1-0 defeat to Spain followed before a dramatic game with Croatia where Italy required a very late 98th-minute equaliser from Zaccagni to earn the point that confirmed them as runner’s up behind Spain and which also all-but eliminated Croatia from the tournament.
Luciano Spalletti’s team have looked solid defensively, with Gianluigi Donnarumma once again imperious in goal, but they have struggled for goals in recent times with just three scored in the tournament so far.
The winner of this game will go on to a quarterfinal where they will face the winner of the England v Slovakia Round of 16 tie.
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Switzerland against Italy Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Switzerland & Italy Squad Analysis
Switzerland will likely be without two players for the game with Italy. Defender Silvan Widmer, who picked up his second yellow card of the tournament against Germany, will definitely be out.
Midfielder Steven Zuber is also unlikely to feature, this time through injury.
The Swiss team's spine is its strength, with goalkeeper Yan Sommer, defenders Manuel Akanji and Fabian Schar, and midfield duo Remo Freuler and Granit Xhaka shining for the team at the tournament so far.
Head coach Murat Yakin is likely to name a very similar team to that which drew with Germany in their final group game.
Italy boss Luciano Spalletti has more to ponder for his team selection. Defender Federico Dimarco is injured and his absence will be keenly felt with neither Andrea Cambiaso or Matteo Darmian filling in for the injured full-back particularly well in the past two fixtures.
Also out is centre-back Riccardo Calafiori, who has been excellent alongside Alessandro Bastoni in defence. Gianluca Mancini or Alessandro Buongiorno will likely replace the suspended centre-back.
Nicolo Barella is the focal point in midfield, but Spalletti has yet to find the right balance in advanced areas of the pitch. Every midfielder and attacker, Stephan El Shaarawy apart, has featured at some point in the group stage, to limited effect.
Mattia Zaccagni’s late strike against Croatia will have enhanced his prospects for a start. He is the only Italian striker to have scored a goal at the tournament so far.
Most goals and assists
Switzerland
Italy
B. Embolo
(2 Goals)
N. Barella
(1 Goals)
,
A. Bastoni
(1 Goals)
,
M. Zaccagni
(1 Goals)
R. Freuler
(2 Assists)
,
M. Aebischer
(2 Assists)
L. Pellegrini
(1 Assists)
,
R. Calafiori
(1 Assists)
Switzerland - Italy Key Points
- Switzerland have drawn two of their three Euro 2024 games.
- Italy have drawn two of their last five, scoring more than one goal on just one occasion.
- The last two Italy and Switzerland games finished as draws (0-0 and 1-1) in September and November 2021.
- Switzerland have drawn nine of their last 14 games in all competitions and friendly games.
- Six of the last eight games between Switzerland and Italy have finished as draws.
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Our Switzerland vs Italy Prediction
Our prediction for the Switzerland vs Italy Euro 2024 Round of 16 clash is: A draw at full-time.
There are a number of similarities between Switzerland and Italy's performances at Euro 2024. Neither team has scored many goals (Switzerland managed five in their three group games, Italy scored three). However, neither has conceded too many, with both teams shipping three goals in their group stage games.
This pattern in the data extends to the recent history between the two nations. Six of their last eight games have been drawn, three by a 0-0 scoreline and the other three by a 1-1 scoreline. Italy won the other two games, including one at the last European Championships in 2021 when they were 3-0 winners, but they did play that game on home soil in Rome in the group stages.
The data strongly suggests another very close game, and the full-time draw, with extra time or even penalties to follow to decide the winner, is the most persuasive option here.
Switzerland vs Italy - Other Interesting Predictions
Breel Embolo (Switzerland) to score at any time
Breel Embolo should start for Switzerland against Italy, having scored in their 3-1 win over Hungary and then making the team from the start against Germany.
In a game where chances are likely to be scarce, Embolo has already shown his ability to take those opportunities, scoring the final goal against Hungary to confirm what was a crucial win for the Swiss.
Embolo is certainly Switzerland's most talented attacker and it is only his recovery from a long-term injury that has seen him start two of the three group games on the bench. In the knockout phase, when taking chances is vital, Embolo will likely get the nod against Italy and should cause the Italian back line problems.
As such, our secondary prediction is for Embolo to score at any time in the game.
Half Time/Full Time - Draw/Draw
Our data for the Switzerland vs Italy Round of 16 tie at Euro 2024 suggests that this is going to be a very tight game and having gone for the draw with our main prediction, our final prediction is for the HT/FT market for the draw/ draw option.
Both Italy and Switzerland have a reputation for being very cagey in games in general. That will be even more obvious in a knockout fixture.
Furthermore, in two of the three draws Italy and Switzerland achieved in Euro 2024, the teams scored their goals in the same half. Italy v Croatia saw both teams score in the second half after a 0-0 stalemate at halftime. Switzerland v Scotland saw both teams score in the first half to make it 1-1 at the interval, which was also the score at the end of the game.
As such, the data supports the HT/FT option of draw/draw, which is our third prediction for the game.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Switzerland Italy
| Switzerland vs Italy | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland wins | 3.5 | 1 | -71.4% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 51 | +1,545.2% |
| Italy wins | 2.2 | 501 | +22,672.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have increased by 1,545.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 32.3% and is now 2.0% (-30.3%)
Switzerland vs Italy match : Frequently asked questions
Switzerland and Italy have a rich history of football rivalry, having played each other a total of 61 times previously.
Italy has 29 wins, while the Swiss have managed just eight victories in that time.
However, there has been a large percentage of drawn games, with 24 of those 61 games finishing all square. That includes six of the last eight fixtures and the last two matches between the two in World Cup qualifying back in 2021.
The BBC will be showing the game between Switzerland and Italy in the Round of 16 at Euro 2024 on its BBC One channel.
The game will also be live-streamed on the BBC website, with HDR quality service of the match also available on the BBC iPlayer.
You can also check out the SportyTrader Euro 2024 Livescore page for real-time data updates and customizable text commentary on all the action as it unfolds in the German capital on Saturday night.
We could be set for drinks breaks in the Round of 16 clash between Switzerland and Italy on Saturday in Berlin.
Temperatures are predicted to hit 30 degrees centigrade on Saturday, with little chance of rain and little wind and the temperature will likely be a few degrees warmer at pitch level by the time the game kicks off at 5pm UK Time.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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