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Sutton United vs Birmingham Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
by Ian John in FA Cup Predictions
FA Cup First Round action is in store at the Borough Sports Ground as Sutton United of the National League host League One leaders Birmingham City. Will our prediction for this match back another FA Cup giant-killing for the Yellows, or will the Blues prevail?
Sutton United have already won in this competition, defeating Chertsey Town 3-1 on the road in the final Preliminary Round. In the National League, the team sit 12th having picked up 22 points from 16 games.
Their form heading into the game isn’t great with their 1-0 win away to Braintree Town last weekend ending a run of three straight defeats, two of which (1-0 to Gateshead and 3-1 to Oldham Athletic) came at home.
It’s a different story for Chris Davies and his Birmingham City side. The Blues are top of League One with 29 points from 12 games. Three clear of Wycombe in second. City have lost just twice in 17 games this season, winning 12 and drawing three.
City are unbeaten in their past three, winning 3-1 at Lincoln, then 2-0 at home to Bolton before a 1-1 draw at Mansfield last weekend.
With 59 places in the Pyramid separating the two teams, plus the fact Birmingham heavily invested in their squad over the summer, the data suggests that it will be the visiting Blues that start this game as the hot favourites.
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The Best Betting Odds for Sutton United v Birmingham Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10 | 6.5 | 1.19 |
|
|
6.5 | 3.3 | 1.53 |
|
|
9.3 | 5.9 | 1.29 |
|
|
9.3 | 5.9 | 1.29 |
|
|
9 | 6 | 1.26 |
|
|
9.1 | 5.95 | 1.29 |
|
|
9.1 | 5.95 | 1.29 |
|
|
11 | 6.6 | 1.22 |
|
|
9.2 | 5.85 | 1.29 |
|
|
9 | 6 | 1.31 |
|
|
9.8 | 6.2 | 1.29 |
|
|
11 | 6.5 | 1.2 |
|
|
8.5 | 5.4 | 1.25 |
|
|
12 | 6 | 1.15 |
|
|
12 | 6.5 | 1.2 |
|
|
9.5 | 5.5 | 1.29 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Sutton United and Birmingham?
Our prediction for the Sutton United vs Birmingham match is: HT/FT - Birmingham/Birmingham.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/11/2024 between Sutton United and Birmingham in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 17.24% for a win of Sutton United against Birmingham with odds of 12 at Betfair.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Sutton United vs Birmingham is 15.03% with odds of 6.6 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 67.73% chance ⭐ for a win of Birmingham vs Sutton United with odds of 1.53 at Ladbrokes.
Sutton United - Birmingham Prediction and Best Odds:
| Sutton United Birmingham Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham wins | 67.73% | 1.53 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.91% | 1.44 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | 1.95 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time: Birmingham/Birmingham | 37.08% | 1.83 at Ladbrokes |
Sutton United vs Birmingham Form
Sutton United and Birmingham Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Oct 2024 - National League
23 Oct 2024 - National League
19 Oct 2024 - National League
12 Oct 2024 - FA Cup, Qualification
5 Oct 2024 - National League
28 Sep 2024 - National League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Oct 2024 - National League
19 Oct 2024 - National League
24 Sep 2024 - National League
21 Sep 2024 - National League
7 Sep 2024 - National League
31 Aug 2024 - National League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Oct 2024 - National League
12 Oct 2024 - FA Cup, Qualification
5 Oct 2024 - National League
28 Sep 2024 - National League
14 Sep 2024 - National League
10 Sep 2024 - National League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Oct 2024 - EFL Trophy
26 Oct 2024 - League One
22 Oct 2024 - League One
19 Oct 2024 - League One
8 Oct 2024 - EFL Trophy
5 Oct 2024 - League One
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Oct 2024 - EFL Trophy
22 Oct 2024 - League One
1 Oct 2024 - League One
28 Sep 2024 - League One
16 Sep 2024 - League One
3 Sep 2024 - EFL Trophy
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Oct 2024 - League One
19 Oct 2024 - League One
8 Oct 2024 - EFL Trophy
5 Oct 2024 - League One
21 Sep 2024 - League One
24 Aug 2024 - League One
Most goals and assists
Sutton United
Birmingham
J. Stansfield
(5 Goals)
,
A. May
(5 Goals)
Sutton United - Birmingham Key Points
- Sutton have trailed at half time in three of their last six home games, losing them all.
- Sutton have won just two of eight home games this season in all competitions.
- Birmingham City have four wins, a draw and one defeat from their six away league games.
- Seven of Birmingham's eleven away goals in the league have been scored in the first half.
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Our Sutton United vs Birmingham Prediction
Our prediction for Sutton United vs. Birmingham City in the FA Cup First Round is: HT/FT - Birmingham/Birmingham.
A look at this data for this game shows that a giant-killing is not likely for the home side. A lack of form at home, a tendency to concede first against a team in great form, who scores goals in the first half in away games and who are top of their table makes this a relatively easy prediction to make. If Birmingham can grab the first goal in the first half, then this should be comfortable for the Blues.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Sutton United Birmingham
| Sutton United vs Birmingham | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton United wins | 8.5 | 10 | +17.6% |
| Draw | 5.75 | 6.5 | +13.0% |
| Birmingham wins | 1.29 | 1.19 | -7.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Birmingham is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 7.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 77.5% and is now 84.0% (6.5%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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