Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar in Bundesliga Predictions
Three points separate St. Pauli and Union Berlin ahead of their matchday 19 meeting in the Bundesliga at the Millerntor-Stadion on Sunday. This match between the Kiezkicker and the visiting Die Eisernen comes with our prediction of under 2.5 goals.
St. Pauli is 14th with 17 points and just three above the bottom three, while Union Berlin is 13th with 20 points. The hosts won 2-0 at Heidenheim last weekend, which could prove crucial in their quest to avoid relegation. That was just their second win across their last six league matches, losing the last four.
They have had an interesting season so far, scoring the fewest number of goals (14) in this season, whilst having the second-best defensive record (21), only behind Bayern Munich.
Union Berlin isn’t far ahead in terms of goals scored, netting only 16 league goals this season. They even have a very impressive defensive record, conceding only 24 goals so far.
The visitors are coming off a 2-1 home win over Mainz, which was a welcome respite, having not won any of their previous 11 matches in all competitions. That sequence had them losing eight and drawing three.
In the league too, Union lost six of their last eight matches, and it gets worse on the road with five consecutive defeats.
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The Best Betting Odds for St. Pauli v Union Berlin Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.35 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.62 | 2.25 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.47 | 3.17 | 3.22 |
|
|
2.47 | 3.17 | 3.22 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between St. Pauli and Union Berlin?
Our prediction for the St. Pauli vs Union Berlin match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/01/2025 between St. Pauli and Union Berlin in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 47.75% for a win of St. Pauli against Union Berlin with odds of 2.62 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between St. Pauli vs Union Berlin is 11.15% with odds of 3.2 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.1% chance ⭐ for a win of Union Berlin vs St. Pauli with odds of 3.34 at Vbet.
St. Pauli - Union Berlin Prediction and Best Odds:
| St. Pauli Union Berlin Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 47.75% | 2.62 at Ladbrokes |
| Under 2.5 | 55.28% | 1.81 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 31.25% | |
| Half-time: Union Berlin / Full-time: St. Pauli | 17.61% | 36 at Betsson |
St. Pauli vs Union Berlin Form
St. Pauli and Union Berlin's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
13
|
30 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -15 |
|
15
|
25 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | -11 |
St. Pauli and Union Berlin Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Jan 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Jan 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
St. Pauli vs Union Berlin Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Aug 2024 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2022 - DFB Pokal
St. Pauli against Union Berlin Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Missing players
K. Mets
ForwardS. Zoller
Most goals and assists
St. Pauli
Union Berlin
B. Hollerbach
(7 Goals)
J. Irvine
(5 Assists)
J. Woo-yeong
(2 Assists)
,
T. Rothe
(2 Assists)
, 
R. Skov
(2 Assists)
,
B. Hollerbach
(2 Assists)
St. Pauli - Union Berlin Key Points
- St. Pauli has the second-best defensive record this season, conceding only 21 goals.
- Eight of St. Pauli’s last ten league matches produced under 2.5 goals.
- St. Pauli failed to score in seven of their last eight home Bundesliga matches.
- Union Berlin failed to score in six of their last nine away league matches.
- The reverse fixture ended in a 1-0 win for Union Berlin.
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Our St. Pauli vs Union Berlin Prediction
St. Pauli is closer to the relegation zone, but their defensive record is one of the best in the division. Only Bayern Munich has conceded fewer goals than them, while St. Pauli also has six clean sheets to their name. They also have the worst scoring record in the division with only 14 goals, while Union Berlin is only just behind them, scoring only 16. The visitors also have an impressive defensive record, conceding only 24 goals. That’s why our St. Pauli v Union Berlin prediction is under 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis St. Pauli Union Berlin
| St. Pauli vs Union Berlin | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 2.5 | 2.35 | -6.0% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 3.2 | +3.2% |
| Union Berlin wins | 3 | 3.2 | +6.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- St. Pauli is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 42.6% (2.6%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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