Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar in Bundesliga Predictions
Freiburg will look to take revenge for their loss to St. Pauli earlier in the Bundesliga season when the sides meet on Saturday in matchday 22. This match at the Millerntor-Stadion between the 14th-placed Kiezkicker and the 6th-placed Breisgau-Brasilianer comes with our prediction of under 2.5 goals.
With 21 points, St. Pauli have a buffer of seven points over the bottom three teams, while Freiburg’s 33 points put them just two outside the top five clubs. St. Pauli lost 2-0 at Leipzig last weekend, a result that came after two wins and a draw. Those seven points eased their relegation worries, and the home fans will hope they can get back to winning ways.
St. Pauli won the reverse fixture 3-0 and have seven clean sheets this season, with only Bayern Munich and Leipzig managing more. That paves the way for a low-scoring match here, which was the case in most of their recent matches.
Freiburg revived their European qualification hopes with consecutive 1-0 wins over Bochum and Heidenheim, the last at home. The visitors are still among the lowest scorers in the division with only 28 goals to their name.
It’s their away form that’s a concern, as Freiburg lost six of their nine recent trips, winning only once—although that came in the last away matchday.
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The Best Betting Odds for St. Pauli v Freiburg Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.35 | 3.1 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.75 | 2.25 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.43 | 3.31 | 3.31 |
|
|
2.43 | 3.31 | 3.31 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between St. Pauli and Freiburg?
Our prediction for the St. Pauli vs Freiburg match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 15/02/2025 between St. Pauli and Freiburg in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.08% for a win of St. Pauli against Freiburg with odds of 2.75 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between St. Pauli vs Freiburg is 16.08% with odds of 3.31 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.84% chance ⭐ for a win of Freiburg vs St. Pauli with odds of 3.31 at 1xbet.
St. Pauli - Freiburg Prediction and Best Odds:
| St. Pauli Freiburg Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 51.08% | 2.75 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.53% | 2.27 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 41.67% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : St. Pauli/St. Pauli | 25.24% | 4 at Bet365 |
St. Pauli vs Freiburg Form
St. Pauli and Freiburg's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
51 | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | -3 |
|
14
|
31 | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | -10 |
St. Pauli and Freiburg Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
26 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
26 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
29 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
9 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Jan 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
7 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
25 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
25 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
30 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
3 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
8 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2024 - DFB Pokal
St. Pauli vs Freiburg Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
28 Sep 2024 - Bundesliga
St. Pauli against Freiburg Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
K. Mets
ForwardS. Zoller
M. Guilavogui
B. Ogbus
MidfielderD. Kyereh
Most goals and assists
St. Pauli
Freiburg
V. Grifo
(10 Goals)
J. Irvine
(5 Assists)
V. Grifo
(11 Assists)
St. Pauli - Freiburg Key Points
- St. Pauli have seen under 2.5 goals in seven of their last eight league matches.
- Seven of St. Pauli’s ten home league matches this season produced two or fewer goals.
- Freiburg’s last two matches ended in 1-0 wins.
- Freiburg failed to score in the reverse fixture, losing 3-0.
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Our St. Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction
St. Pauli lost their recent match, which stopped their run of two wins and a draw. Although they have a seven-point lead over the bottom three teams, St. Pauli wouldn’t want to lose again. Freiburg comes here with two 1-0 wins in consecutive matches, which stopped a dire run of three defeats. The visitors are looking to force their way into top-five places and also will hope to avenge the 3-0 defeat in the reverse fixture. This match may lack excitement in terms of goals, though, and our St. Pauli v Freiburg prediction is under 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis St. Pauli Freiburg
| St. Pauli vs Freiburg | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 2.5 | 2.35 | -6.0% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.1 | -6.1% |
| Freiburg wins | 2.75 | 3.25 | +18.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- St. Pauli is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 42.6% (2.6%)
2 Goals Ahead Early Payout
More than 80 leagues and competitions are available on this football promotion from bet365. If the team that you have backed takes a two-goal lead at any point in the game, then your bet is a winner. This counts on both single bets and on multiple placed on the full time market, though of course on a multiple it is only the game in question that is marked as a winner, all the other selections still have to win as well.
A bet placed on any enhanced price is not valid for this offer, nor any bet that is cashed out. If you have partially chased out, the remainder of the stake is paid out as a winner. If your acca selection would have been a loser but for this offer then you will not gain any acca boost winnings. So for example, your team goes 2-0 up so you are paid out as a winner but the end result is 2-2, your bet is still a winner if all the other selections win but you do not gain any acca boost.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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