Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Steve Ashfield in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Nations League holders Spain are home to the Netherlands in the second leg of this quarter-final tie. Both sides still have a good chance of progressing after a 2-2 draw in Thursday's first leg? Can the Clockwork Orange knock out the holders? Here's our match prediction.
Spain are the current European champions and also won the last Nations League. The winner of this tie will face either Croatia or France in the last four with the Croatians winning the home first leg of that quarter-final 2-0. The Red One are on a long unbeaten run and led in the first leg but then needed a 93rd minute equalizer to return home with a 2-2 draw and all to play for in this second leg.
After leading 2-1, the Netherlands will have been disappointed not to secure a lead to take into this second leg. At least the away goals rule is long gone. The Dutch side have reached one Nations League final in the past, can they make the last four this time around?
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The Best Betting Odds for Spain v Netherlands Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.65 | 3.8 | 5 |
|
|
1.7 | 3.75 | 5 |
|
|
1.95 | 2.62 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.74 | 4.17 | 4.99 |
|
|
1.74 | 4.17 | 4.99 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Spain and Netherlands?
Our prediction for the Spain vs Netherlands match is: Spain to win.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/03/2025 between Spain and Netherlands in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.33% for a win of Spain against Netherlands with odds of 1.95 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Spain vs Netherlands is 30.11% with odds of 4.17 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 15.57% chance ⭐ for a win of Netherlands vs Spain with odds of 5.2 at Unibet.
Spain vs Netherlands Form
Spain and Netherlands Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Jul 2024 - Euro
9 Jul 2024 - Euro
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Nov 2023 - Euro
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
7 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Jul 2024 - Euro
6 Jul 2024 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jul 2024 - Euro
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
Spain vs Netherlands Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
11 Nov 2020 - International Friendlies
Spain - Netherlands: Form Analysis
Thursday's 2-2 draw in the Netherlands ended a run of five successive wins for Spain. They have become masters of scoring late goals and their last two matches have seen goals scored by them in the 93rd minute, so they never give up trying to score.
Spain look to extend their long unbeaten run.
They are unbeaten now in their last 17 international fixtures. Not since a home friendly defeat to Colombia in March 2023 have they been beaten. Since then, they have won the Euros and the Nations League.
22 competitive matches have been played without a loss and you have to go back to 2022 for their last home Nations League defeat.
The Netherlands extended their unbeaten run to three games on Thursday but have won just one of their last six games. That was a home win over Hungary and not since Euro 2024 have they won on the road.
In this Nations League, the Clockwork Orange have two draws and a loss in their three away fixtures with just a couple of goals scored. You have to go back to 2000 for the last time Spain lost to the Netherlands on home soil.
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Spain vs Netherlands last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Spain & Netherlands Squad Analysis
There's only three days between the two legs of this tie so any injuries sustained on Thursday do not have much time to heal. That's the case for Spain's centre-back Pau Cubarsi. He went off in the second half of the first leg and is doubtful for this match.
If he doesn't play, then there could be a full international debut for Dean Huijsen. The Bournemouth defender came on as a sub on Thursday, his first international appearance. Merino scored a late equalizer for Spain but is likely to again start on the bench.
This is not the time for the Netherlands to have problems in defence.
The Netherlands lost a lead in the first leg and now face one of the toughest tasks in world football. Go to Spain and win is their target or at least get a penalty shootout. They will be without Jorrel Hato who was sent off in the first leg. Ian Maatsen has been called into the squad.
Also missing for the Netherlands will be defender Jurrien Timber who is ill. Having problems in defence is not what you need when taking on Spain in their backyard. Just how will they approach this second leg? A cautious approach is likely to be taken but that will all change if Spain take the lead.
Most goals and assists
Spain
Netherlands
F. Ruiz
(2 Goals)
C. Gakpo
(3 Goals)
,
T. Reijnders
(3 Goals)
,
D. Dumfries
(3 Goals)
M. Joselu
(1 Assists)
,
F. Torres
(1 Assists)
,
L. Yamal
(1 Assists)
,
F. Ruiz
(1 Assists)
,
P. Porro
(1 Assists)
,
A. Perez
(1 Assists)
,
D. Olmo
(1 Assists)
,
Pedri
(1 Assists)
D. Malen
(2 Assists)
Spain and Netherlands Stats in UEFA Nations League
Spain - Netherlands Key Points
- Spain have won 14 of their last 16 matches.
- Spain are the current holders of the Nations League title and are unbeaten in their last ten matches in this competition.
- The Netherlands have not won in Spain in 25 years.
- The Netherlands have only won one of their last six matches.
- Spain have gone 22 competitive fixtures without defeat.
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Our Spain vs Netherlands Prediction
Spain will have been relieved to return home from the Netherlands with the tie level at 2-2. They needed a 93rd minute goal to secure that draw and that has put them in the driving seat in this Nations League quarter-final.
They are strong at home and face a Dutch side that has been struggling for wins with just one in their last six matches. Away goals have been in short supply too with only two in the last three played. Our main Spain v Netherlands prediction is Spain to win.
Spain vs Netherlands - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score in the second half
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Spain vs Netherlands match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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