Spain vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips - Euro
by Devesh Jaganath in Euro Predictions
The second round of matches at the 2024 European Championships is set for a replay of the Euro 2020 semi-final!
European powerhouses Spain and Italy are set to lock horns in a blockbuster Group B Euro 2024 showdown at Arena AufSchalke on Thursday night.
The last time these familiar foes crossed paths at the European Championships, it was the Italians that triumphed and went on to lift the title at Wembley Stadium.
This time, though, Spain is the side with the momentum behind them, and the bookmakers have inserted them as the favourites to not only win this match but to top the ‘group of death’ as well.
Can Gli Azzurri topple the Red Fury in a second consecutive Euro tournament? Let’s take a look at some of the key facts below.
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The Best Betting Odds for Spain v Italy Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.04 | 13 | 301 |
|
|
2.5 | 2.25 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.17 | 3.1 | 3.05 |
|
|
1.02 | 21 | 501 |
|
|
1.02 | 21 | 501 |
|
|
2.22 | 3.02 | 3.7 |
|
|
1.04 | 10.75 | 94 |
|
|
2.11 | 3.19 | 3.76 |
|
|
2.16 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Spain and Italy?
Our prediction for the Spain vs Italy match is: Over 2.5 goals!
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 20/06/2024 between Spain and Italy in Euro :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 55.72% for a win of Spain against Italy with odds of 2.5 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Spain vs Italy is 24.66% with odds of 21 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 19.61% chance ⭐ for a win of Italy vs Spain with odds of 501 at 1xbet.
Spain - Italy Prediction and Best Odds:
| Spain Italy Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spain wins | 55.72% | 2.5 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.11% | 2.25 at Ladbrokes |
| Both Team To Score | 66.25% | 1.95 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Spain | 30.14% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Spain vs Italy Form
Spain and Italy's standings in the Euro
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
|
2
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Spain and Italy Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
5 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
22 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2023 - Euro
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
21 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
20 Nov 2023 - Euro
Spain against Italy : Head to Head (H2H)
60 %
40 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
15 Jun 2023 - UEFA Nations League
6 Oct 2021 - UEFA Nations League
6 Jul 2021 - Euro
2 Sep 2017 - World Cup
6 Oct 2016 - World Cup
Spain - Italy: Form Analysis
After a fairly underwhelming performance at the FIFA World Cup in Qatar, Spain are looking to regain their status as a European powerhouse.
They put together a very impressive qualifying campaign, where they finished top of their group ahead of Scotland and Norway. In their eight Euro 2024 qualifying matches, the Red Fury posted an excellent record of seven wins in eight matches, while scoring 25 goals in that time.
In match one of this competition, the Spaniards were ruthless, scoring three goals against Croatia through Alvaro Morata, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Carvajal. All three of those goals came in the first half, effectively wrapping up the result by the half-time interval.
Luis de la Fuente’s men also won their two warm-up matches earlier this month. Thus, they enter this fixture on a three-match winning streak and are unbeaten in their last four.
Spain have only conceded one defeat in their last 13 matches in all competitions.
Italy, on the other hand, came through their qualifying campaign in second place behind tournament favourites England. They posted a record of four wins, two draws and two losses in their eight matches, narrowly fending off Ukraine, who finished third.
Since then, Gli Azzurri have remained unbeaten, picking up four wins in their last five games, with the only exception being a goalless draw to Turkey earlier this month.
In their opening match of Euro 2024, Luciano Spalletti’s side had an early scare, conceding the first goal inside the first 65 seconds of the kickoff. However, it did not take them long to assert their dominance and ran out 2-1 winners against Albania.
Italy’s only loss in their last 12 matches came against England in qualifying, while they won eight and drew three of the remaining 11 matches in that time.
While the Blues came out on top in the previous edition of the Euros, they were beaten by Spain in the next two encounters during the Nations League, both times by a 2-1 scoreline.
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Spain against Italy Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
Pedri
ForwardA. Perez
R. Calafiori
Spain & Italy Squad Analysis
Spain will be sweating over the availability of Alvaro Morata for this match. The team captain was forced off with a knock in the second half against Croatia and will undergo a fitness test ahead of kickoff.
Al-Nassr’s Aymeric Laporte missed the opening match due to a muscle injury and is still flagged as a doubt for this match. If he is unable to return in time, Real Madrid skipper Nacho is likely to continue in the heart of the Spanish defence.
Lamine Yamal became the youngest man to play at the European Championship in Spain’s win over Croatia.
Meanwhile, Italy will be hoping to have Nicolo Fagioli available for this match after the midfielder was forced to sit out the team’s opener with an injured leg.
Nicolo Barella shook off a knock to feature and score the winner against Albania. The Inter midfielder will almost certainly keep his spot in the starting 11 for this match.
In the absence of Ciro Immobile, Atalanta’s Gianluca Scamacca is expected to lead the line for Gli Azzuri in this battle of the heavyweights.
Spain - Italy Key Points
- Each of Spain’s last four games have ended with over 2.5 goals
- Spain have scored two or more goals in eight of their last 10 matches
- Italy have only failed to score in two of their last 15 matches
- Italy have scored two or more goals in four of their last six games
- Three or more goals were scored in 3 of the last 4 matches between these sides
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Our Spain vs Italy Prediction
With two of the most exciting teams in the world set to face off here, this match has the makings of being an absolute humdinger.
Both teams have been in sensational form in the build-up to this headline encounter. Spain, in particular, have been rampant in attack lately.
They have scored three or more goals in each of their last four games, while Italy rarely fails to find the back of the net. Our Spain vs Italy prediction: Over 2.5 goals!
Spain vs Italy - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score
Following on from our main prediction above, both sides have only failed to score in one of their last five matches. Additionally, three of the last four games between them have seen both teams finding the back of the net.
Alvaro Morata to score anytime
Morata scored in his last start against Italy and came off the bench to net the equaliser at the 2020 Euros. The Spain captain has also netted in the last two games for the Red Fury.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Spain Italy
| Spain vs Italy | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain wins | 2.15 | 1.04 | -51.6% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 13 | +300.0% |
| Italy wins | 3.6 | 301 | +8,261.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Spain is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 51.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 46.5% and is now 96.2% (49.6%)
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Spain vs Italy match : Frequently asked questions
The Euro 2024 match between Spain and Italy will take place on June 20 at 20:00 GMT.
The Euro 2024 match between Spain and Italy will be played at the Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen.
The Euro 2024 match between Spain and Italy will be televised live on ITV1 and the ITVX app in the UK.
Alternatively, you can keep up-to-date with all the live action from Spain vs Italy via our Euro 2024 Livescore tool, which will be available throughout the competition.
Spain and Italy have faced each other a total of 40 times in the past.
Spain have won 13 matches, Italy have won 11 times once. A draw has been the most frequent outcome (16).
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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