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Spain vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
by Joseph King | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
The third edition of the UEFA Nations League enters the semi-final stage with Spain taking on Italy on Thursday, June 15th. A meeting against Croatia (who knocked out host nation the Netherlands) awaits the winner in the final being played three days later at De Kuip. Spain topped Group 2 of League A in the qualifying stage with 11 points from their six fixtures. They edged out Portugal by one point thanks to a 1-0 victory in Braga on the final matchday. The Italians finished the group stage with an identical record to Spain, winning three, drawing twice and losing just once. Back-to-back wins in the final two games would see the Azzurribest Hungary, Germany and England to advance to this stage. This is a rematch of the previous iteration of the Nations League semi-final where Spain would emerge victorious 2-1 in Milan. The Spanairds would go on to finish as runners-up to France in that tournament while Italy would finish third.
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The Best Betting Odds for Spain v Italy Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.25 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.35 | 3.15 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.17 | 3.17 | 3.93 |
|
|
2.17 | 3.17 | 3.93 |
|
|
2.25 | 3.05 | 3.15 |
|
|
2.24 | 3.22 | 3.36 |
|
|
2.24 | 3.22 | 3.36 |
|
|
2.26 | 2.85 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.3 | 3.17 | 3.57 |
|
|
2.32 | 3.26 | 3.32 |
|
|
2.33 | 3.14 | 3.47 |
|
|
2.25 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.32 | 3.25 | 3.45 |
|
|
2.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
|
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Spain vs Italy Form
Spain and Italy Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Mar 2023 - Euro
25 Mar 2023 - Euro
6 Dec 2022 - World Cup
1 Dec 2022 - World Cup
27 Nov 2022 - World Cup
23 Nov 2022 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Mar 2023 - Euro
27 Nov 2022 - World Cup
23 Nov 2022 - World Cup
24 Sep 2022 - UEFA Nations League
12 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Mar 2023 - Euro
6 Dec 2022 - World Cup
1 Dec 2022 - World Cup
17 Nov 2022 - International Friendlies
27 Sep 2022 - UEFA Nations League
9 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2023 - Euro
23 Mar 2023 - Euro
20 Nov 2022 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2022 - International Friendlies
26 Sep 2022 - UEFA Nations League
23 Sep 2022 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Mar 2023 - Euro
23 Sep 2022 - UEFA Nations League
7 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
4 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
1 Jun 2022 - Finalissima 2022
24 Mar 2022 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Mar 2023 - Euro
20 Nov 2022 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2022 - International Friendlies
26 Sep 2022 - UEFA Nations League
14 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
Spain vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Oct 2021 - UEFA Nations League
6 Jul 2021 - Euro
2 Sep 2017 - World Cup
6 Oct 2016 - World Cup
Spain - Italy: Form Analysis
Both teams come into this semi-final after some disappointing results. Italy had a rough start to their 2024 Euro qualifying campaign, losing 2-1 at home in their opening match to England back in March. They were able to recover with a 2-0 away win over Malta three days later for their first points of the qualifying campaign. However, the results mean that the Italians have now lost two of their last three matches overall. After the shocking failure to reach the World Cup for the second consecutive time, a Nations League triumph would go a long way to rebuilding confidence. Italy were able to keep a clean sheet in their most recent outing after previously having conceded in three straight games. They'll look to recapture the form which saw them keep three clean sheets from their last four Nations League group stage fixtures.
Spain followed the reverse script to start the 2024 Euro qualifiers. La Rojakicked off their qualifying campaign on the right foot with a 3-0 home win over Norway. However, they would suffer a surprise 2-0 defeat to Scotland at Hampden Park in Glasgow in their most recent outing. Spain have now lost three of their last four including their extremely disappointing round of 16 exit from the 2022 World Cup on penalties to Morocco. The 2010 world champions have come under fire for their profligacy in front of goal despite generally dominating possession. Spain have only scored more than a single goal in one of their last five matches. Their most recent outing won't have inspired much confidence. Spain managed only three shots on target and failed to create a single clear cut scoring chance despite holding 75% of the ball.Limited Offer. Currently at DraftKings
Spain against Italy Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Spain & Italy Squad Analysis
Italy manager Roberto Mancini would surely like to call upon the group of Inter players that joined up with the national team following the Champions League final. A backline of Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni, Federico Dimarco and Napoli's Di Lorenzo coud take to the field on Thursday. However, it remains to be seen if Mancini will start the Inter defenders, along with influential midfielder Nico Barella, after having just played on June 10th. Mateo Retegui, born and raised in Argentina, is likely to lead the Italian line after scoring in his first two appearances for the Azzurri . Juventus' Federico Chiesa should get the nod on the right wing while Arsenal's Jorginho and PSG's Marco Verratti are likely to take up their roles in the midfield.
Spain are likely to start with two French-born centerbacks with Aymeric Laporte set to partner the recently declared possible debutant Robin Le Normand. Manager Luis de la Fuente Castillo is dealing with a few injuries to his squad. Iago Aspas, Alejandro Balde and wonderkid Pedri, all who started the team's 3-0 win over Norway in March, are set to miss out here. We're likely to see Jordi Alba and Dani Carvajal take up the fullback positions, while Rodri should anchor the midfield. Gavi is sure to get the nod either in the midfield or on the wing with Dani Olmo occupying the other wide position. De la Fuente could opt to start Joselu to lead the Spanish frontline once again. PSG's Fabian Ruiz and Real Sociedad's Mikel Merino will also be pushing for a spot in the starting 11.
Most goals and assists
Spain
Italy
A. Morata
(2 Goals)
,
P. Sarabia
(2 Goals)
G. Raspadori
(2 Goals)
,
F. Dimarco
(2 Goals)
,
L. Pellegrini
(2 Goals)
M. Asensio
(3 Assists)
D. Gnonto
(1 Assists)
,
L. Spinazzola
(1 Assists)
,
M. Politano
(1 Assists)
,
F. Dimarco
(1 Assists)
,
L. Bonucci
(1 Assists)
,
B. Cristante
(1 Assists)
,
D. Frattesi
(1 Assists)
,
G. Raspadori
(1 Assists)
Spain - Italy Key Points
- Spain have failed to score in two of their last three games.
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in three of Spain’s last five outings.
- Six of the last eight meetings between these two nations have resulted in less than 2.5 goals scored.
- Italy closed out the Nations League group stages with three clean sheets in their last four games.
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in two of Italy’s last three fixtures across all competitions.
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Our Spain vs Italy Prediction
While the Nations League doesn't carry as much significance as other major international competitions, this still represents a key fixture for both nations. Spain and Italy are each going through something of a transition stage. A triumph in the 2022/23 Nations League will be an encouraging sign for the 2024 European Championship and beyond. With that being said, both teams have struggled to put forward consistent displays recently. Spain's playstyle lends itself well towards unders given their slow, methodical buildup play. Italy's defense could be an extremely tough unit to break down. This is especially true if the Inter contingent take to the field, as they displayed in the Champions League final against heavily-favored Manchester City. Expect a tightly-contested affair here, with likely only one goal or two being scored.Our Spain vs Italy prediction is for under 2.5 goals.
Spain vs Italy - Other Interesting Predictions
Italy double chance
Both teams to score: No
Spain vs Italy match : Frequently asked questions
The Nations League semi-final between Spain and Italy is taking place at De Grolsch Veste, home of FC Twente, in Enschede.
The Spain vs Italy fixture in the Nations League semi-final kicks off at 7:45 PM UK time.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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