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Spain vs France Prediction & Betting Tips - Euro
by Ian John in Euro Predictions
Two giants of European football clash in the first Euro 2024 semi-final in what promises to be a spectacle! France face Spain as two previous winners of this tournament battle it out for a place in the final in Berlin at the weekend. Let's take a look at the match statistics and predictions for this blockbuster clash between La Roja and Les Bleus.
Spain have been the most impressive team at the tournament, winning all of their five games thus far, scoring the most goals and certainly entertaining those that have tuned in to watch their games. After topping their group, Spain defeated Georgia 4-1 in the Round of 16. In the quarter-final, a header from Mikel Merino in the last minute of extra time saw the Spaniards knock out hosts Germany 2-1 in a high-quality encounter.
Their opponents France have struggled for goals in this tournament, getting on the scoresheet just three times - two of those being own goals and the other a penalty. However, they have conceded just once in the tournament. They defeated Belgium 1-0 in the Round of 16, followed by a win on penalties over Portugal in the quarter-finals after a 0-0 draw. With England or the Netherlands lying in wait in the final, both these teams will fancy taking home the trophy on Sunday, if they can win this game.
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The Best Betting Odds for Spain v France Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.08 | 7.5 | 151 |
|
|
2.62 | 2.75 | 3.1 |
|
|
1.09 | 8 | 151 |
|
|
1.09 | 8 | 151 |
|
|
2.75 | 2.8 | 3.15 |
|
|
2.7 | 2.79 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.7 | 2.79 | 3.1 |
|
|
1.08 | 8 | 100 |
|
|
2.71 | 2.82 | 3.04 |
|
|
2.7 | 2.9 | 3.05 |
|
|
2.79 | 2.87 | 3.17 |
|
|
1.05 | 11 | 101 |
|
|
2.75 | 2.8 | 3.15 |
|
|
1.55 | 3.7 | 6.5 |
|
|
2.75 | 2.88 | 3.15 |
|
|
2.7 | 2.8 | 3 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Spain and France?
Our prediction for the Spain vs France match is: Most goals to be scored in the second half.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/07/2024 between Spain and France in Euro :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.73% for a win of Spain against France with odds of 2.79 at Vbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Spain vs France is 25.29% with odds of 11 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 22.99% chance ⭐ for a win of France vs Spain with odds of 151 at Bet365.
Spain - France Prediction and Best Odds:
| Spain France Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spain wins | 51.73% | 2.79 at Vbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.05% | 2.67 at Betobet |
| Both Team To Score | 47.92% | 2.1 at Vbet |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Spain | 26.41% | 15 at Betfair |
Spain vs France Form
Spain and France Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
30 Jun 2024 - Euro
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
30 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
5 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Nov 2023 - Euro
15 Oct 2023 - Euro
8 Sep 2023 - Euro
18 Jun 2023 - UEFA Nations League
28 Mar 2023 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
1 Jul 2024 - Euro
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
21 Jun 2024 - Euro
17 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jul 2024 - Euro
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
5 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
21 Jun 2024 - Euro
17 Jun 2024 - Euro
21 Nov 2023 - Euro
13 Oct 2023 - Euro
12 Sep 2023 - International Friendlies
Spain vs France Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
10 Oct 2021 - UEFA Nations League
28 Mar 2017 - International Friendlies
Spain - France: Form Analysis
Spain are certainly the form team in the Euro 2024 tournament. They have won 13 of their last 15 games, losing just once and they are currently on a seven match winning streak. This includes winning all five of their Euro 2024 fixtures so far. Luis de la Fuente’s team have been hugely impressive in every game in the tournament scoring 11 goals and conceding just two.
Wins in the group stage over Croatia, Italy, and Albania were followed by wins in the knockout phase over Georgia and Germany, the latter coming via a dramatic last-minute extra-time winner. They have a good record in this tournament, winning it three times (1964, 2008 and 2012). However, performances in more recent tournaments in 2016 and 2020 have not been up to their usual high standards.
2016 looks likely to be different if they can continue their dominant form shown in the tournament thus far.
France were knocked out of Euro 2020 in the quarter-finals and lost in the final in 2016 on home soil. They have won the tournament twice previously, in 1984 inspired by Michel Platini and in 2000, when Zinedine Zidane was at his imperious best.
The French have found goals hard to come by.
A 0-0 pre-tournament draw against Canada was indicative of their forthcoming struggle for goals at Euro 2024. They scored twice in the group stage to finish second in their group. A single goal against Belgium, their second own goal of the tournament, saw them through before a 0-0 draw and win on penalties over the Portuguese put them through in the quarter-final.
The last game between the two was the Nations League Final of 2021 which France won 2-1, but the last five games have been shared with two wins each and a draw. This has all the makings of being a Euro 2024 classic, if the French can find their shooting boots.
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Spain against France Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
Pedri
Spain & France Squad Analysis
Spain will have to make three changes at least for the semi-final with France. Dani Carvajal is suspended, as is Robin Le Normand, which means that two of their back four will be new faces. Midfielder Pedri will also be out for the contest after an injury sustained in the game with Germany.
Jesus Navas could come in for Carvajal, while Nacho could come in for Le Normand. Dani Olmo will likely replace Pedri in midfield after being hugely impressive in performing that role in the game with Germany.
France have a number of key decisions to make for the game with Spain.
Adrien Rabiot has served his suspension and is back in contention for this game, but whether he can displace the impressive Eduardo Camavinga remains to be seen. The Real Madrid man had a very good game against Portugal in the quarter-final.
The French back four has been settled all tournament but it is in attack where they need to improve, with Mbappé and Griezmann being very quiet by their own standards. It remains to be seen who gets the central attacking role with Thuram and Muani unimpressive in the tournament thus far. Could the talismanic Olivier Giroud return to the team?
Most goals and assists
Spain
France
D. Olmo
(3 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(1 Goals)
,
R. Kolo Muani
(1 Goals)
L. Yamal
(4 Assists)
K. Mbappe
(1 Assists)
Spain - France Key Points
- Five of Spain's last six goals scored in Euro 2024 have come after halftime.
- Three of the four goals in France's games in Euro 2024 came after halftime.
- 13 of the last 18 goals scored in Spain v France games have come in the second half.
- In the last match between the two, the Nations League Final in 2021, all three goals came in the second half.
- 62 of the 108 goals scored at Euro 2024 have come after halftime.
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Our Spain vs France Prediction
Our prediction for Spain vs. France Euro 2024 semi-final is for the most goals to be scored in the second half. There could not be a starker contrast between Spain's and France's performances at Euro 2024 so far. The Spanish were superb, scoring the most goals in the tournament and winning all five of their games, albeit requiring extra time against Germany in the quarter-final.
France reached the semi-finals despite winning just two games, losing one, drawing twice and winning on penalties in their quarter-final against Portugal. They are yet to score a goal from open play by a French player. The one key data point that shines through is the likelihood of more goals being scored in the second half. This has been the trend in Euro 2024 and so it makes sense for it to be our primary prediction for this first semi-final.
Spain vs France - Other Interesting Predictions
Anytime Goalscorer - Rodri (Spain)
Our secondary prediction for the Spain vs France semi-final at Euro 2024 is for Spanish midfield maestro Rodri to score at any time.
The Manchester City man has proven himself to be one of the most reliable midfield performers in world football. Not only that, but allied to his superb consistency is his tendency to score hugely important goals. He scored the Champions League final winner for Manchester City, and already netted a key equaliser against Georgia in the Round of 16.
France's defence matches up well against the Spanish three-pronged attack, but Rodri's threat from outside the box and at set pieces could be key for Spain. Hence he is our excellent value secondary pick to score at any time in the game.
Total Goals Exact - Second Half - Two Goals
Our final prediction for the Spain vs France Euro 2024 semi-final is for two goals to be scored exactly in the second half of the game.
We have already noted in our preview that Spain v France games, both historically and in Euro 2024, have seen the majority of goals scored in the second half. We also know that while Spain do score goals, France have found them difficult to come by, but are very strong defensively.
The data suggests that this will be a tight game, perhaps goalless at half-time but that a goal will be scored in the second half and then the game will open up, which should provide both teams with better chances to score a second. Both have the quality to do that, which makes backing two goals in the second half a solid option for our final prediction on this game.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Spain France
| Spain vs France | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain wins | 2.63 | 1.08 | -58.9% |
| Draw | 2.9 | 7.5 | +158.6% |
| France wins | 3.1 | 151 | +4,771.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Spain is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 58.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 38.0% and is now 92.6% (54.6%)
Spain vs France match : Frequently asked questions
Spain will take on France in the first semi-final of Euro 2024 at the Allianz Arena, the home ground of Bayern Munich, on July 9th 2024. Kick off will be 8 pm UK Time.
Neither Spain nor France have played at the ground previously in their Euro 2024 campaigns.
The Euro 2024 semi-final between Spain and France will be the 37th time that these two neighbouring nations have met internationally.
Spain hold the advantage in the fixture with 16 wins compared to 13 for France with just seven matches between the two being drawn.
The last five games between the two were shared with one draw, plus two wins apiece for Spain and France. France were the victors when the teams last met in the UEFA Nations League Final in Milan, beating Spain 2-1 with all three goals coming in the second half.
France and Spain did not meet in a competitive fixture until the 1984 European Championships Final in France, with France winning that game 2-0.
Since then they have met three more times at Euro finals. The first at Euro 96, when they drew 1-1.
France were 2-1 winners when the teams met at Euro 2000 but at Euro 2012, Spain gained revenge with a 2-0 victory in the quarter-final of that tournament.
BBC One will be showing the first Euro 2024 semi-final between Spain and France live on the channel on Tuesday 9th July, kicking off at 8pm. Customers will be able to watch in HDR via the red button on iPlayer and also live on the BBC website.
If you want to have an In-Play bet on the action in the Spain vs France semi-final, then check out the Euro 2024 Livescore pages at SportyTrader for real-time data updates on all aspects of the game, including live text commentary of key incidents in this crucial matchup.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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