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Spain vs England Prediction & Betting Tips - Euro
by Ian John in Euro Predictions
Football fans get ready! The Euro 2024 final is here and will see Spain face England in Berlin on Sunday night in what should be an entertaining match between two talented teams. La Roja have won this trophy three times, while the Three Lions will be hoping to go one better than their penalty defeat to Italy in the final in Euro 2020! Let's take a look at some of the key data we considered for our main prediction!
Luis de la Fuente's Spain side have been perfect in the tournament, winning six out of six games and only needing extra time to see off hosts Germany on their way to the final. They have rightly been installed as the favourites to win the game on the back of those excellent performances, as well as the fact that they have scored a tournament-high 13 goals thus far.
Despite being under pressure due to England's poor performance in the group stage, Gareth Southgate has stayed loyal to his first choice team and has been rewarded with another shot at winning England's first major international trophy since 1966. Ollie Watkins last gasp winner over the Dutch dramatically sent England into the final in Berlin on Sunday. Will the Three Lions finally roar at Euro 2024? Or will La Roja make it Euro title number four? All will be revealed on Sunday evening!
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The Best Betting Odds for Spain v England Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.08 | 8 | 151 |
|
|
2.75 | 2.1 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.09 | 8 | 151 |
|
|
1.09 | 8 | 151 |
|
|
2.45 | 2.85 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.4 | 2.8 | 3.58 |
|
|
2.4 | 2.8 | 3.58 |
|
|
1.02 | 12.25 | 100 |
|
|
2.45 | 2.83 | 3.42 |
|
|
2.43 | 2.95 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.54 | 2.86 | 3.55 |
|
|
1.06 | 10 | 101 |
|
|
2.5 | 2.8 | 3.55 |
|
|
2.52 | 2.9 | 3.45 |
|
|
2.5 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Spain and England?
Our prediction for the Spain vs England match is: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/07/2024 between Spain and England in Euro :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 46.3% for a win of Spain against England with odds of 2.75 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Spain vs England is 28.04% with odds of 12.25 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 25.66% chance ⭐ for a win of England vs Spain with odds of 151 at Bet365.
Spain - England Prediction and Best Odds:
| Spain England Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spain wins | 46.3% | 2.75 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.97% | 3.7 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 75% | 2.02 at Unibet |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Spain | 20.36% | 5.7 at Betsson |
Spain vs England Form
Spain and England Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jul 2024 - Euro
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
30 Jun 2024 - Euro
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jul 2024 - Euro
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
30 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Nov 2023 - Euro
15 Oct 2023 - Euro
8 Sep 2023 - Euro
18 Jun 2023 - UEFA Nations League
28 Mar 2023 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jul 2024 - Euro
6 Jul 2024 - Euro
30 Jun 2024 - Euro
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jul 2024 - Euro
30 Jun 2024 - Euro
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
7 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
3 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jul 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Nov 2023 - Euro
12 Sep 2023 - International Friendlies
9 Sep 2023 - Euro
Spain vs England Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
15 Oct 2018 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2018 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2016 - International Friendlies
Spain - England: Form Analysis
Spain come into the Euro 2024 final against England very much as the team in form in the tournament. The Spanish have scored more goals than any other team (13 in six games) while conceding just three. They have also won 14 of their last 16 with their last loss coming in March of 2023. That being a 2-0 defeat away to Scotland back in their second Euro 2024 finals qualifying game.
The Spaniards began the tournament in style, beating Croatia 3-0, then Italy 1-0, followed by a 1-0 win over Albania with a much-changed team. They then defeated Georgia 4-1 and Germany 2-1 after extra time to reach the semi-finals, where they came back from a goal down early on to beat France 2-1. They are on a nine-game unbeaten run, winning all of their last eight matches.
England may have started the tournament as favourites, but that is no longer the case.
A narrow win 1-0 win over Serbia was followed by a 1-1 draw with Denmark and a 0-0 draw with Slovenia. Games in which England's performance, and the manager's decisions, were slated by fans, experts and pundits. England were seconds from going out of the tournament in the Round of 16 tie with Slovakia, until Jude Bellingham's overhead kick in added time rescued England and Harry Kane added a second early in extra time to earn a 2-1 win.
The performance was better against a very talented Swiss side, but once again England fell early after a Breel Embolo's strike. A fantastic Bukayo Saka curler brought England level at 1-1 and the team was able to hold their nerve to convert all five spot kicks to win 5-3 on penalties. A semi-final with Netherlands loomed, and once again, England fell behind, but a controversial penalty from Harry Kane and a last-gasp finish from Ollie Watkins saw England into the final.
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Spain against England Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Missing players
Pedri
ForwardA. Perez
Spain & England Squad Analysis
Spain manager Luis de la Fuente will have two of his key defenders back for the final with England on Sunday. Right back Dani Carvajal and centre-back Robin Le Normand have both served their suspension in the win over France in the semi-final. Both should return to the team on Sunday in place of veterans Nacho and Jesus Navas, the latter who struggled at right back in the semi-final and who was withdrawn in the second half with what looked like a muscular injury.
Yamal replaced Pele as the youngest ever player to score at a major international tournament finals.
The wonderful wing play of youngsters Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal have propelled Spain through this tournament with the latter scoring a wonderful goal against France in the semi-final.
The Spanish side have not quite got a full-strength squad to pick from. Barcelona youngster Pedri remains injured from their quarter-final win over Germany, which means the hugely impressive Dani Olmo, the current co-Golden Boot leader at the tournament, will likely continue in midfield alongside Rodri and Fabian Ruiz.
England boss Gareth Southgate should have a fully fit squad to choose from for the final. Luke Shaw came through the entire second half against the Netherlands unscathed. Despite this, Southgate will likely continue with Kieran Trippier in the left wing-back role and Arsenal's Bukayo Saka on the right side. Therefore, no changes are likely to the England XI for the final.
This means hero of the semi-final victory over the Dutch, Ollie Watkins, will start on the bench.
England's best players at the tournament have been defenders John Stones and Marc Guehi and defensive midfielders Kobbie Mainoo and Declan Rice. They have provided solidity and stability when the forward line has not quite fired. They will need to be rock solid against the creative Spanish team in the final if England are to win the trophy.
Most goals and assists
Spain
England
D. Olmo
(3 Goals)
H. Kane
(3 Goals)
L. Yamal
(4 Assists)
B. Saka
(1 Assists)
,
I. Toney
(1 Assists)
,
M. Guehi
(1 Assists)
,
D. Rice
(1 Assists)
,
C. Palmer
(1 Assists)
,
J. Bellingham
(1 Assists)
Spain - England Key Points
- Both teams have scored in four of England's six Euro 2024 matches and in all their knockout stage games.
- Both teams have scored in all of Spain's Euro 2024 knockout stage games.
- Spain are averaging three goals per game over their last nine games (27 goals scored)
- All of the last three Spain v England games have produced over 2.5 goals.
- All of the last three games between Spain and England have seen both teams score.
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Our Spain vs England Prediction
Our prediction for Spain vs. England Euro 2024 final is: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.
Having witnessed two exciting semi-finals involving Spain and England, the fact that we are seeing goals at both ends in all of their Euro 2024 knockout phase games means backing both teams to score looks like a sensible bet. This is even more so when you see the attacking talent on show for both teams.
We've also seen over 2.5 goals scored in four of the six knockout phase games involving these two teams, which looks like a fantastic value option to pair with both teams to score bet for this potentially explosive Euro 2024 final.
Prediction :
Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals to be Scored.
Spain vs England - Other Interesting Predictions
Jude Bellingham (England) to score at any time.
Talismanic England midfielder Jude Bellingham has scored two goals at Euro 2024 already, including a last gasp overhead kick against Slovakia that will surely be judged among the goals of the tournament.
The Real Madrid midfielder has been playing against Spanish defences all season and was top scorer for his club team and his running with the ball and ability on it, will cause Spain plenty of problems.
Bellingham has shown he is the man to deliver in key moments for England in this tournament. As such, he is a good value bet to score at any time here.
Dani Olmo (Spain) to score at any time.
Dani Olmo didn't start the tournament as first choice for Spain, but an injury to Pedri let the Red Bull Leipzig midfielder into the team and he grabbed the opportunity. He's now assisted two goals and scored three in the tournament so far and his attack-minded midfield role will be tricky for England's midfielders to pick up.
Having scored a wonderful goal against France in the semi-final, Olmo's confidence will be sky-high meaning that he is arguably the most likely of the Spanish quintet of attacking players to be the one to score a goal. His 11 goals in 38 caps is a strong return.
As such backing Olmo to score at any time is another good bet for the Euro 2024 final.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Spain England
| Spain vs England | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain wins | 2.38 | 1.08 | -54.6% |
| Draw | 2.88 | 8 | +177.8% |
| England wins | 3.5 | 151 | +4,214.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Spain is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 54.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 42.0% and is now 92.6% (50.6%)
Spain vs England match : Frequently asked questions
Spain vs. England in the Euro 2024 final will be shown live on both ITV and BBC 1 on Sunday 14th July. The game will also be shown live on the BBC and ITV websites.
For in-depth and real-time statistical analysis of the game, including text commentary on key moments, check out the Euro 2024 Livescore pages at SportyTrader, especially if you're going to be enjoying an In-Play wager as the action unfolds in Berlin.
England and Spain have met a total of 27 times in their history. It is England who hold the advantage in the fixture, amassing 14 wins to Spain's 10 with just three games finishing as a draw.
The vast majority of these games (19) have been international friendlies.
Spain have beaten England just twice in an international tournament (a 1-0 World Cup win in 1950 and more recently a 2-1 win in the Nations League in 2018). In contrast, England have beaten Spain five times with just one draw in international football (a 0-0 draw in the 1982 World Cup Finals).
In the European Championship Finals, the teams met twice and England won both contests, a 2-1 win in 1980, followed by a win on penalties after a 0-0 draw in Euro 96. England also beat Spain twice (2-0 and 2-1) when qualifying for Euro '68, the only other contests between the two teams in this competition.
The most recent fixture between the two saw England beat Spain 3-2 in Seville in October 2018 contesting a UEFA Nations League contest.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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