Serbia vs Spain Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
by Kennedy Kechula in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Spain will begin the defence of their UEFA Nations League title with a League A Group 4 match away to Serbia. This pool also has Denmark and Switzerland. There is no doubt as to why bookies’ predictions favor Spain in this game, despite playing away in Belgrade.
This match will be staged at the Rajko Mitic Stadium on Thursday 5th September, starting 7.45pm GMT. It will be the fourth meeting between these two nations but the first since the two nations met in a friendly match back in 2012.
Spain have never lost to Serbia before and will be keen on keeping the run going. This game comes just seven weeks after they were crowned European champions. Spain will be thus upbeat here.
Serbia have the chance to cause a major upset as they host this game. They will bank on the fact that competitively, they have never lost to Spain but they aren’t on a great run coming here.
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The Best Betting Odds for Serbia v Spain Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.25 | 3.9 | 1.62 |
|
|
5.75 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
|
|
5.63 | 4.03 | 1.65 |
|
|
5.63 | 4.03 | 1.65 |
|
|
6.5 | 4 | 1.5 |
|
|
6.8 | 4.1 | 1.51 |
|
|
5.8 | 4.1 | 1.63 |
|
|
6.45 | 4.16 | 1.52 |
|
|
6.6 | 4.2 | 1.54 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Serbia and Spain?
Our prediction for the Serbia vs Spain match is: Spain to win and both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/09/2024 between Serbia and Spain in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.3% for a win of Serbia against Spain with odds of 6.8 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Serbia vs Spain is 20.38% with odds of 4.2 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 52.33% chance ⭐ for a win of Spain vs Serbia with odds of 1.8 at Ladbrokes.
Serbia - Spain Prediction and Best Odds:
| Serbia Spain Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spain wins | 52.33% | 1.8 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 2.08 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 52.38% | 2.15 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time / Full-time: Spain/Spain | 20.67% | 2.6 at Bet365 |
Serbia vs Spain Form
Serbia and Spain's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
|
3
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
Serbia and Spain Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jul 2024 - Euro
9 Jul 2024 - Euro
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
30 Jun 2024 - Euro
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
Serbia - Spain: Form Analysis
While Spain went on a triumphant run at the 2024 European Championship, winning all their matches, Serbia could not conjure even one win. The Serbian team managed two points in draws against Slovenia and Denmark.
They had earlier lost to eventual finalists, England, and thereby finished bottom of Group C. Serbia’s only goal in the competition was scored in stoppage time of their 1-1 draw with Slovenia.
With some of the top attacking talent in Europe, their low scoring returns in Germany were a surprise. It will concern Dragan Stojković more that his team has only three wins in the last 11 matches.
While they prepare to face one of the most attacking sides in Europe, Serbia have three clean sheets in their last 15 matches. When it comes to the Nations League, however, they are unbeaten in the last five at home, winning four.
Playing at home, Serbia will be keen on a first ever win against Spain.
Spain moved five places up in the FIFA rankings after their European Championship triumph in Germany. They will be very confident coming into this game, having not lost any of their last 10 matches.
The Spaniards emerged winners in each of their last nine games and will be positive of getting a first competitive win against Serbia. Their loss to Colombia in a March friendly is Spain’s only defeat in the last 19 matches.
They failed to win in just three of the 19 outings. Still, Luis de la Fuente will be concerned that despite his charges’ dominance, they really struggle to keep clean sheets in their matches.
In the last four outings ahead of lifting the Euro title, Spain failed to keep a clean sheet. They lost just once in seven Nations League matches.
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Serbia against Spain Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Serbia & Spain Squad Analysis
Serbia will not only be the underdogs despite playing at home, their situation is made tougher by key absences. Aleksandar Mitrovic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic are out injured, leaving the team short in attack.
It doesn’t end there; Juventus’ Dusan Vlahovic hasn’t been called up and the same applies to Filip Kostic. With a clear gap in attack, Millwall’s Mihailo Ivanovic looks set for his international debut but he will be behind Luka Jovic in the pecking order.
Both Spain and Serbia will miss top players who featured at the 2024 Euro finals.
Spain also have injuries and absences of their own. Members of the Euro 2024 winning team, Unai Simon, Mikel Merino, Rodri and Alvaro Morata are all unavailable.
While goalkeeper Simon is nursing a wrist problem, Merino has a shoulder injury sustained at his new team – Arsenal. The European champions will have ready replacements, with Arsenal’s David Raya a straight swap for Simon.
Alvaro Morata, who skippered the team at Euro 2024 is injured but would be ineligible anyway, as he serves a one-match ban. Manchester City midfielder Rodri is also banned for this game. The two were suspended after engaging in anti-football chants in July.
Jesus Navas will no longer be part of the team after announcing retirement from international football.
Serbia - Spain Key Points
- Spain have nine straight wins.
- Spain are unbeaten in three matches against Serbia.
- In their last nine matches Serbia managed only two wins.
- Spain failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches.
- Serbia failed to score only four times in their last 20 matches.
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Our Serbia vs Spain Prediction
Spain finished on a high the last time they played an international game, seeing off England, to win the Euro title. If they retain the same standards in this game, then it will be a very easy outing for Luis de la Fuente’s side.
With nine straight wins ahead of this game, Spain’s only concern will be whether they can win with a clean sheet. That has been the elusive part of their recent matches. They face a Serbia side missing key attacking players but still sharp going forward. Our prediction for Serbia v Spain is for Spain to win and both teams to score.
Serbia vs Spain - Other Interesting Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
With both teams set to score, and Spain coming in as favorites to bag three points, we will back this game to have over 2.5 goals. All of Spain’s last four matches had at least three goals and the same applies to Serbia’s last four home matches.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Serbia Spain
| Serbia vs Spain | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia wins | 6.5 | 5.25 | -19.2% |
| Draw | 4.2 | 3.9 | -7.1% |
| Spain wins | 1.5 | 1.62 | +8.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Spain is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 8.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 66.7% and is now 61.7% (-4.9%)
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Serbia vs Spain match : Frequently asked questions
The Serbia v Spain match will be played at the Rajko Mitic Stadium in Belgrade.
The Serbia v Spain match will be played on Thursday 5th September starting 7.45pm GMT.
Fans in Serbia will be able to watch the match via Sportklub and those in Spain can watch on TVE and Mediaset. SportyTrader will have the match’s live scores on the UEFA Nations League Livescores portal.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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