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22 August 2024 - 18:00 

- 1/8

South America - Copa Libertadores

SAO Paulo
VS
Nacional Montevideo

Prediction :

Under 2.5

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SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa Libertadores

 by Nella Wagah in Copa Libertadores Predictions

Sao Paulo will be eyeing home advantage as they seek to see off Nacional for a place in the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals. The two sides meet in Brazil for the Round of 16 return leg, a tie currently balanced at 0-0. Read on for the preview and our prediction of this match.

A week ago, these two sides met for the first time in 16 years and like in most meetings, it ended in low scores. None of the five matches pitting these sides has ever seen more than two goals scored.

Sao Paulo have been the dominant so far, being unbeaten, with three wins. It is this run they’ll be banking on as they target a win at home. Their ambition will be backed by four wins in their last six Libertadores matches.

At home in this competition, they only lost once in 12 matches.

Nacional have an uphill task as they head out to Brazil. The 0-0 draw at home left them winless in two Copa Libertadores matches. A run of nine matches in all competitions without defeat should, however, provide the needed lift.

Right ahead of this game, Nacional had an encouraging performance in a six-goal thriller as they held River Plate to a 3-3 draw. Nicolas Gonzalez’s stoppage time goal earned the point in a rare high-scoring game for Nacional.

Riding this momentum, the Uruguayan side will be confident of upsetting Sao Paulo. Their away form in Libertadores could be an impediment though. Nacional have won only four times in 17 away matches in this competition.

They failed to score in two of the last four away Libertadores matches.

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The Best Betting Odds for SAO Paulo v Nacional Montevideo Match

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Bet365
1 51 501
Ladbrokes
1.6 3.4 5.25
1xbet
1.01 19.3 93
22bet
1.01 19.3 93
Betobet
1.62 3.45 6
Betwinner
1.69 3.5 5.75
Stake
1.01 36 100
Melbet
1.61 3.74 6.15
Tonybet
1.62 3.75 6.4
Check all SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo odds
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What is the prediction for the football match between SAO Paulo and Nacional Montevideo?

Our prediction for the SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo match is: Under 2.5 goals.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/08/2024 between SAO Paulo and Nacional Montevideo in Copa Libertadores :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 46.75% for a win of SAO Paulo against Nacional Montevideo with odds of 1.69 at Betwinner.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo is 32.02% with odds of 51 at Bet365.
  • Our prediction model gives a 21.24% chance ⭐ for a win of Nacional Montevideo vs SAO Paulo with odds of 501 at Bet365.

SAO Paulo - Nacional Montevideo Prediction and Best Odds:

SAO Paulo Nacional Montevideo Prediction Probability Odds
SAO Paulo wins 46.75% 1.69 at Betwinner
Under 2.5 54.29% 2.17 at Tonybet
Both Team To Score 29.17% 2.5 at Bet365
Half-time: Draw / Full-time: SAO Paulo 19.03% 4 at Bet365

SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo Form

SAO Paulo and Nacional Montevideo Last Matches

SAO Paulo
SAO Paulo Last matches
W W D W D L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

Total goals
1.17
BTTS
17%
Goals scored
0.83
Goals conceded
0.33
Over 2.5
17%
Under 2.5
83%

18 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A

Palmeiras
2 :  1
SAO Paulo

15 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores

Nacional Montevideo
0 :  0
SAO Paulo

11 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A

SAO Paulo
1 :  0
Atletico GO

8 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil

Goias
0 :  0
SAO Paulo

3 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A

SAO Paulo
1 :  0
Flamengo

30 Jul 2024 - Copa do Brasil

SAO Paulo
2 :  0
Goias
Nacional Montevideo
Nacional Montevideo Last matches
W W W D D D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

Total goals
3.17
BTTS
33%
Goals scored
2.5
Goals conceded
0.67
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%

18 Aug 2024 - Primera Division

CA River Plate
3 :  3
Nacional Montevideo

15 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores

Nacional Montevideo
0 :  0
SAO Paulo

4 Aug 2024 - Primera Division

Nacional Montevideo
1 :  1
CA Penarol Montevideo

28 Jul 2024 - Primera Division

Nacional Montevideo
1 :  0
CA Boston River

20 Jul 2024 - Primera Division

Nacional Montevideo
4 :  0
Miramar Misiones

13 Jul 2024 - Primera Division

Danubio FC
0 :  6
Nacional Montevideo

SAO Paulo against Nacional Montevideo : Head to Head (H2H)

15 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores

Nacional Montevideo
0 :  0
SAO Paulo
Improve your sports betting with our football team comparison tool (100+ statistics)

SAO Paulo against Nacional Montevideo Lineups: Starting 11

SAO Paulo

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

23
Rafael
13
Rafinha
5
R. Arboleda
28
A. Franco
6
Welington
21
D. Bobadilla
16
L. Gustavo
7
L. Moura
10
Luciano
27
W. Rato
9
J. Calleri
22
D. Zabala
9
R. Bentancourt
7
A. Galeano
16
A. Castro
8
C. Oliva
26
L. Sanabria
11
G. Baez
23
D. Polenta
4
S. Coates
14
L. Lozano
12
L. Mejia

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

Nacional Montevideo

SAO Paulo - Nacional Montevideo Key Points

  1. Nacional’s last five Libertadores games averaged 2.2 goals.
  2. Three of Nacional’s last four matches produced under 2.5 goals.
  3. Only one of Sao Paulo’s last seven outings had more than two goals.
  4. Sao Paulo’s last five Copa Libertadores matches produced eight goals.
  5. Nine goals were scored in Nacional’s last five away Libertadores games.
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Our SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo Prediction

Sao Paulo will feel as favorites going into this game after playing to a goalless draw in the first leg. The Brazilian side hasn’t scored a lot in recent Libertadores matches but at the same time has been strong defensively.

Their last three matches in this competition produced just two goals, with Sao Paulo keeping three straight clean sheets. Nacional have this season scored less than two goals in four of seven Libertadores matches. With such stats, there’s reason to go for a low-scoring game. 

Our prediction for Sao Paulo v Nacional is for the game to have under 2.5 goals.

Prediction :

Under 2.5

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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis SAO Paulo Nacional Montevideo

SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo Opening odds Pre-match odds Odds Movements
SAO Paulo wins 2.6 1 -61.5%
Draw 3.1 51 +1,545.2%
Nacional Montevideo wins 2.8 501 +17,792.9%
Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

  • SAO Paulo is most likely to win
  • The odds for this bet have decreased by 61.5% since opening
  • The probability of this result was 38.5% and is now 100.0% (61.5%)

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo Prediction
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