South America - Copa Libertadores
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SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa Libertadores
by Nella Wagah in Copa Libertadores Predictions
Sao Paulo will be eyeing home advantage as they seek to see off Nacional for a place in the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals. The two sides meet in Brazil for the Round of 16 return leg, a tie currently balanced at 0-0. Read on for the preview and our prediction of this match.
A week ago, these two sides met for the first time in 16 years and like in most meetings, it ended in low scores. None of the five matches pitting these sides has ever seen more than two goals scored.
Sao Paulo have been the dominant so far, being unbeaten, with three wins. It is this run they’ll be banking on as they target a win at home. Their ambition will be backed by four wins in their last six Libertadores matches.
At home in this competition, they only lost once in 12 matches.
Nacional have an uphill task as they head out to Brazil. The 0-0 draw at home left them winless in two Copa Libertadores matches. A run of nine matches in all competitions without defeat should, however, provide the needed lift.
Right ahead of this game, Nacional had an encouraging performance in a six-goal thriller as they held River Plate to a 3-3 draw. Nicolas Gonzalez’s stoppage time goal earned the point in a rare high-scoring game for Nacional.
Riding this momentum, the Uruguayan side will be confident of upsetting Sao Paulo. Their away form in Libertadores could be an impediment though. Nacional have won only four times in 17 away matches in this competition.
They failed to score in two of the last four away Libertadores matches.
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The Best Betting Odds for SAO Paulo v Nacional Montevideo Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 | 51 | 501 |
|
|
1.6 | 3.4 | 5.25 |
|
|
1.01 | 19.3 | 93 |
|
|
1.01 | 19.3 | 93 |
|
|
1.62 | 3.45 | 6 |
|
|
1.69 | 3.5 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.69 | 3.5 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.01 | 36 | 100 |
|
|
1.61 | 3.74 | 6.15 |
|
|
1.62 | 3.75 | 6.4 |
|
|
1.65 | 3.7 | 6.1 |
|
|
1 | 501 | 501 |
|
|
1.65 | 3.5 | 5.95 |
|
|
1.57 | 3.25 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.01 | 17 | 101 |
|
|
1 | 29 | 151 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between SAO Paulo and Nacional Montevideo?
Our prediction for the SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo match is: Under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/08/2024 between SAO Paulo and Nacional Montevideo in Copa Libertadores :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 46.75% for a win of SAO Paulo against Nacional Montevideo with odds of 1.69 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo is 32.02% with odds of 501 at Betfair.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.24% chance ⭐ for a win of Nacional Montevideo vs SAO Paulo with odds of 501 at Bet365.
SAO Paulo - Nacional Montevideo Prediction and Best Odds:
| SAO Paulo Nacional Montevideo Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| SAO Paulo wins | 46.75% | 1.69 at Betwinner |
| Under 2.5 | 54.29% | 2.17 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 29.17% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: SAO Paulo | 19.03% | 21 at Betfair |
SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo Form
SAO Paulo and Nacional Montevideo Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
15 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
11 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
8 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
3 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
30 Jul 2024 - Copa do Brasil
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
3 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
30 Jul 2024 - Copa do Brasil
24 Jul 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
17 Jul 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
6 Jul 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
15 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
8 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
27 Jul 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Jul 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
11 Jul 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
15 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
4 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
28 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
20 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
13 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
4 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
28 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
20 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
7 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
15 Jun 2024 - Primera Division
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
13 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
23 Jun 2024 - Primera Division
9 Jun 2024 - Primera Division
4 Jun 2024 - Primera Division
30 May 2024 - Copa Libertadores
SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
15 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
SAO Paulo against Nacional Montevideo Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Most goals and assists
SAO Paulo
Nacional Montevideo
Luciano
(13 Goals)
R. Bentancourt
(10 Goals)
,
N. Lopez
(10 Goals)
W. Rato
(7 Assists)
G. Baez
(2 Assists)
, 
A. Galeano
(2 Assists)
SAO Paulo - Nacional Montevideo Key Points
- Nacional’s last five Libertadores games averaged 2.2 goals.
- Three of Nacional’s last four matches produced under 2.5 goals.
- Only one of Sao Paulo’s last seven outings had more than two goals.
- Sao Paulo’s last five Copa Libertadores matches produced eight goals.
- Nine goals were scored in Nacional’s last five away Libertadores games.
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Our SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo Prediction
Sao Paulo will feel as favorites going into this game after playing to a goalless draw in the first leg. The Brazilian side hasn’t scored a lot in recent Libertadores matches but at the same time has been strong defensively.
Their last three matches in this competition produced just two goals, with Sao Paulo keeping three straight clean sheets. Nacional have this season scored less than two goals in four of seven Libertadores matches. With such stats, there’s reason to go for a low-scoring game.
Our prediction for Sao Paulo v Nacional is for the game to have under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis SAO Paulo Nacional Montevideo
| SAO Paulo vs Nacional Montevideo | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAO Paulo wins | 2.6 | 1 | -61.5% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 51 | +1,545.2% |
| Nacional Montevideo wins | 2.8 | 501 | +17,792.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- SAO Paulo is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 61.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 38.5% and is now 100.0% (61.5%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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