Spain - Copa del Rey
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by Sridhar in Football Predictions
Real Sociedad will look to make home advantage count in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-finals on Wednesday. This match at the Reale Arena in San Sebastián comes with our prediction of under 2.5 goals.
La Real advanced to this round after defeating Rayo Vallecano (3-1) and Osasuna (2-0) in their last two rounds, both at home. Los Blancos needed extra time to defeat Celta Vigo (5-2) before an away 3-2 win at Leganes in the previous round.
Sociedad won 3-0 at home against Leganes at the weekend for their fifth win in six competitive matches. They are still outside the top six in La Liga and will view this competition as a chance to enter the Europa League.
Sociedad won 11 of their last 13 home matches in all competitions, losing just once. Madrid will look to add to that loss count, having already won 2-0 at this venue in this season in the league.
Madrid also won 2-0 at home against Girona at the weekend, but it was just their fourth win in seven matches. Los Blancos have a score to settle in this competition, having reached the final only once in the last ten seasons.
On the road too, Madrid won two of their last four, drawing and losing one each.
Several Real Madrid players will be absent this evening, namely Courtois, Mbappé and Valverde. These are three key absentees for this match.
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The Best Betting Odds for Real Sociedad v Real Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.2 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.47 | 3.5 | 2.27 |
|
|
3.47 | 3.5 | 2.27 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Real Sociedad and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/02/2025 between Real Sociedad and Real Madrid in Copa del Rey :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.74% for a win of Real Sociedad against Real Madrid with odds of 4.33 at Betfair.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid is 14.33% with odds of 3.6 at Betsson.
- Our prediction model gives a 46.94% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad with odds of 2.39 at Vbet.
Real Sociedad - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Real Sociedad Real Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 46.94% | 2.39 at Vbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.49% | 2.18 at Betwinner |
| Both Team To Score | 42.08% | |
| Half-time : Real Sociedad / Full-time : Real Madrid | 18.62% | 29 at Betsson |
Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Form
Real Sociedad and Real Madrid Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
20 Feb 2025 - Europa League
16 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
13 Feb 2025 - Europa League
9 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
6 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
20 Feb 2025 - Europa League
9 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
6 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
30 Jan 2025 - Europa League
26 Jan 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
13 Feb 2025 - Europa League
2 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
23 Jan 2025 - Europa League
19 Jan 2025 - LaLiga
5 Jan 2025 - Copa del Rey
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
11 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
5 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
22 Jan 2025 - Champions League
19 Jan 2025 - LaLiga
16 Jan 2025 - Copa del Rey
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
11 Feb 2025 - Champions League
5 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
1 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
25 Jan 2025 - LaLiga
Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
26 Apr 2024 - LaLiga
17 Sep 2023 - LaLiga
2 May 2023 - LaLiga
29 Jan 2023 - LaLiga
5 Mar 2022 - LaLiga
Real Sociedad against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
J. Pacheco
E. Militao
Most goals and assists
Real Sociedad
Real Madrid
M. Oyarzabal
(11 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(29 Goals)
S. Gomez
(5 Assists)
J. Bellingham
(9 Assists)
Real Sociedad - Real Madrid Key Points
- In nine of their last 15 home matches in all competitions, Sociedad saw under 2.5 goals produced.
- Madrid won 2-0 at this venue earlier in the season, in the league competition.
- Seven of the last nine matches between Sociedad and Madrid produced fewer than three goals.
- In 12 of their last 15 matches in the Copa del Rey, Sociedad have seen two or fewer goals scored.
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Our Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Prediction
Historically, Sociedad have a 5-2 win-loss record against Madrid in Copa del Rey. While most of those were played in the 1990s, the latest was in 2019/20, when Sociedad won 4-3 in the quarter-finals. The hosts have been in impressive form at this venue, winning 11 of their last 13 matches here in all competitions. Madrid have already won once at this venue this season and have been steady in their recent results, without being spectacular. This could be a low scorer, and our Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid prediction is under 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Sociedad Real Madrid
| Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad wins | 4.1 | 3 | -26.8% |
| Draw | 3.8 | 3.25 | -14.5% |
| Real Madrid wins | 1.75 | 2.25 | +28.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 28.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 57.1% and is now 44.4% (-12.7%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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