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Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa del Rey

Spain - Copa del Rey

Real Sociedad
26/02/2025 15:30
Real Madrid

Prediction :

 

Under 2.5

 
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 by Sridhar in Football Predictions

Real Sociedad will look to make home advantage count in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-finals on Wednesday. This match at the Reale Arena in San Sebastián comes with our prediction of under 2.5 goals.

La Real advanced to this round after defeating Rayo Vallecano (3-1) and Osasuna (2-0) in their last two rounds, both at home. Los Blancos needed extra time to defeat Celta Vigo (5-2) before an away 3-2 win at Leganes in the previous round.

Sociedad won 3-0 at home against Leganes at the weekend for their fifth win in six competitive matches. They are still outside the top six in La Liga and will view this competition as a chance to enter the Europa League.

Sociedad won 11 of their last 13 home matches in all competitions, losing just once. Madrid will look to add to that loss count, having already won 2-0 at this venue in this season in the league.

Madrid also won 2-0 at home against Girona at the weekend, but it was just their fourth win in seven matches. Los Blancos have a score to settle in this competition, having reached the final only once in the last ten seasons.

On the road too, Madrid won two of their last four, drawing and losing one each.

Several Real Madrid players will be absent this evening, namely Courtois, Mbappé and Valverde. These are three key absentees for this match.

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The Best Betting Odds for Real Sociedad v Real Madrid Match

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Bet365
3 3.25 2.25
Betfred
3.1 3.2 2.25
Ladbrokes
3.2 3.25 2.25
1xbet
3.47 3.5 2.27
22bet
3.47 3.5 2.27
Check all Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid odds
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What is the prediction for the football match between Real Sociedad and Real Madrid?

Our prediction for the Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid match is: under 2.5.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/02/2025 between Real Sociedad and Real Madrid in Copa del Rey :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.74% for a win of Real Sociedad against Real Madrid with odds of 4.33 at Betfair.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid is 14.33% with odds of 3.6 at Betsson.
  • Our prediction model gives a 46.94% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad with odds of 2.39 at Vbet.

Real Sociedad - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:

Real Sociedad Real Madrid Prediction Probability Odds
Real Madrid wins 46.94% 2.39 at Vbet
Over 2.5 goals 59.49% 2.18 at Betwinner
Both Team To Score 42.08%
Half-time : Real Sociedad / Full-time : Real Madrid 18.62% 29 at Betsson

Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Form

Real Sociedad and Real Madrid Last Matches

Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad Last matches
W W W L W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.5 Total goals
50% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
3 :  0
Leganés

20 Feb 2025 - Europa League

Real Sociedad
5 :  2
FC Midtjylland

16 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Betis
3 :  0
Real Sociedad

13 Feb 2025 - Europa League

FC Midtjylland
1 :  2
Real Sociedad

9 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
2 :  1
Espanyol

6 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey

Real Sociedad
2 :  0
Osasuna
L W W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
33% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
3 :  0
Leganés

20 Feb 2025 - Europa League

Real Sociedad
5 :  2
FC Midtjylland

9 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
2 :  1
Espanyol

6 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey

Real Sociedad
2 :  0
Osasuna

30 Jan 2025 - Europa League

Real Sociedad
2 :  0
PAOK Thessaloniki

26 Jan 2025 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
0 :  3
Getafe
W L L L W L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
50% BTTS
1 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

16 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Betis
3 :  0
Real Sociedad

13 Feb 2025 - Europa League

FC Midtjylland
1 :  2
Real Sociedad

2 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Osasuna
2 :  1
Real Sociedad

23 Jan 2025 - Europa League

Lazio
3 :  1
Real Sociedad

19 Jan 2025 - LaLiga

Valencia
1 :  0
Real Sociedad

5 Jan 2025 - Copa del Rey

Ponferradina
0 :  2
Real Sociedad
Real Madrid
Real Madrid Last matches
W D W D W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  0
Girona

19 Feb 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
3 :  1
Manchester City

15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Osasuna
1 :  1
Real Madrid

11 Feb 2025 - Champions League

Manchester City
2 :  3
Real Madrid

8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  1
Atletico Madrid

5 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey

Leganés
2 :  3
Real Madrid
W W W D W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
3.33 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  0
Girona

19 Feb 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
3 :  1
Manchester City

8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  1
Atletico Madrid

22 Jan 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
5 :  1
Salzburg

19 Jan 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
4 :  1
Las Palmas

16 Jan 2025 - Copa del Rey

Real Madrid
5 :  2
Celta Vigo
W W L W W D
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Osasuna
1 :  1
Real Madrid

11 Feb 2025 - Champions League

Manchester City
2 :  3
Real Madrid

5 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey

Leganés
2 :  3
Real Madrid

1 Feb 2025 - LaLiga

Espanyol
1 :  0
Real Madrid

29 Jan 2025 - Champions League

Brest
0 :  3
Real Madrid

25 Jan 2025 - LaLiga

Valladolid
0 :  3
Real Madrid

Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Real Sociedad

17 %

Draw

17 %

Real Madrid

67 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.17
Total goals
33%
BTTS
0.67
Goals scored (Team 1)
1.5
Goals scored (Team 2)
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5

14 Sep 2024 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
0 :  2
Real Madrid

26 Apr 2024 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
0 :  1
Real Madrid

17 Sep 2023 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Real Sociedad

2 May 2023 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
2 :  0
Real Madrid

29 Jan 2023 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
0 :  0
Real Sociedad

5 Mar 2022 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
4 :  1
Real Sociedad
Improve your sports betting with our football team comparison tool (100+ statistics)

Real Sociedad against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11

Real Sociedad

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

1
A. Remiro
19
J. Aramburu
5
I. Zubeldia
21
N. Aguerd
3
A. Munoz
24
L. Sucic
4
M. Zubimendi
23
B. Mendez
14
T. Kubo
10
M. Oyarzabal
7
A. Barrenetxea
7
V. Junior
16
Endrick
5
J. Bellingham
19
D. Ceballos
6
E. Camavinga
15
A. Guler
20
F. Garcia
22
A. Rudiger
14
A. Tchouameni
35
R. Asencio
13
A. Lunin

Formation : 4 - 4 - 2

Real Madrid

Missing players

Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
Defender

J. Pacheco

Midfielder

A. Zakharyan

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Goalkeeper

T. Courtois

Defender

E. Militao

D. Carvajal

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Real Sociedad
CD Huachipato Real Madrid
Top Goalscorer
Spain M. Oyarzabal (9 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
France K. Mbappe (27 Goals)
Best assists
Spain S. Gomez (5 Assists)
Best assists
England J. Bellingham (9 Assists)

Real Sociedad - Real Madrid Key Points

  1. In nine of their last 15 home matches in all competitions, Sociedad saw under 2.5 goals produced.
  2. Madrid won 2-0 at this venue earlier in the season, in the league competition.
  3. Seven of the last nine matches between Sociedad and Madrid produced fewer than three goals.
  4. In 12 of their last 15 matches in the Copa del Rey, Sociedad have seen two or fewer goals scored.
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Our Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Prediction

Historically, Sociedad have a 5-2 win-loss record against Madrid in Copa del Rey. While most of those were played in the 1990s, the latest was in 2019/20, when Sociedad won 4-3 in the quarter-finals. The hosts have been in impressive form at this venue, winning 11 of their last 13 matches here in all competitions. Madrid have already won once at this venue this season and have been steady in their recent results, without being spectacular. This could be a low scorer, and our Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid prediction is under 2.5.

Prediction :

 

Under 2.5

 
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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Sociedad Real Madrid

Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Opening odds Pre-match odds Odds Movements
Real Sociedad wins 4.1 3 -26.8%
Draw 3.8 3.25 -14.5%
Real Madrid wins 1.75 2.25 +28.6%
Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

  • Real Madrid is most likely to win
  • The odds for this bet have increased by 28.6% since opening
  • The probability of this result was 57.1% and is now 44.4% (-12.7%)

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Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Prediction
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