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Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
by Devesh Jaganath in Champions League Predictions
The Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League brings us the Madrid Derby at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu in the opening leg, with Real Madrid playing host to Atletico Madrid on Tuesday. Los Blancos are the defending champions of this title, while Rojiblancos bowed out in the quarter-final of last season’s competition. Check out our match prediction below!
This match will mark the 10th meeting between these sides in the European Cup/ Champions League and the fifth time they will face off in the knockout stages - Real Madrid have progressed in all five of those knockout meetings. However, across all European competitions, Atletico Madrid have won their last two games against Los Blancos (both in the UEFA Super Cup).
The hosts are the clear favourites in this contest, but the visitors have not lost at the Santiago Bernabeu in their last three visits. Let’s get into the key stats at play between these cross-town rivals.
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The Best Betting Odds for Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.91 | 3.6 | 4 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.6 | 4 |
|
|
1.94 | 3.66 | 4.3 |
|
|
1.94 | 3.66 | 4.3 |
|
|
1.87 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.89 | 3.54 | 4.16 |
|
|
1.89 | 3.54 | 4.16 |
|
|
1.92 | 3.65 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.89 | 3.54 | 4.16 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.9 | 3.63 | 4.3 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.5 | 4 |
|
|
1.87 | 3.55 | 4.25 |
|
|
1.88 | 3.75 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.5 | 4 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/03/2025 between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 43.82% for a win of Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid with odds of 1.94 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid is 29.59% with odds of 3.75 at Betsson.
- Our prediction model gives a 26.59% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid with odds of 4.3 at 1xbet.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Form
Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
26 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
11 Feb 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
22 Jan 2025 - Champions League
19 Jan 2025 - LaLiga
16 Jan 2025 - Copa del Rey
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
26 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
11 Feb 2025 - Champions League
5 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
1 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
25 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
22 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
1 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
25 Jan 2025 - LaLiga
21 Jan 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
22 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
18 Jan 2025 - LaLiga
15 Jan 2025 - Copa del Rey
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
50 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
29 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2024 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2024 - Copa del Rey
10 Jan 2024 - Super Cup
24 Sep 2023 - LaLiga
Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid: Form Analysis
Real Madrid had an underwhelming League Phase of the Champions League, finishing 11th, but they were a class above Man City in their playoff tie, beating the Citizens 6-3 on aggregate.
However, Los Blancos were far from their best over the weekend when they were beaten 2-1 by Real Betis, which cost them the opportunity to regain the lead in the La Liga standings.
Still, the hosts are always formidable on their home patch, unbeaten in their last nine games (W8 D1 L0), while having scored two or more goals in each of the victories during that period.
Each of the last five games between these sides have ended in a draw in normal time!
Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid secured direct entry into the round of 16 thanks to an excellent end to the League Phase, where they won five in a row to finish with a record of (W6 D0 L2) in their eight games.
Los Colchoneros leapfrogged their upcoming opponent in the La Liga standings with a 1-0 victory against Athletic Bilbao over the weekend. They are now unbeaten in 10 matches across all competitions (W6 D4 L0).
The visitors have also avoided defeat in their last four away matches across all competitions and scored two or more goals in each of their last three Champions League games on the road.
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Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
D. Carvajal
E. Militao
J. Vallejo
MidfielderF. Valverde
D. Ceballos
C. Azpilicueta
MidfielderKoke
Real Madrid & Atletico Madrid Squad Analysis
Real Madrid will once again hope that Kylian Mbappe will be able to deliver at the top end of the pitch after scoring his first Champions League hat-trick for his new employers against Man City in the playoffs.
The major concern for Los Blancos’ fans will be the fitness of Federico Valverde, who missed the loss to Real Betis over the weekend with a knock. The Uruguayan has played every minute in the Champions League this season and notched up two assists.
Jude Bellingham is suspended for this match due to an accumulation of yellow cards!
After a slightly slow start to life in Madrid, Julian Alvarez is now enjoying a purple patch of form, having scored five goals in his last five games, including the winner over Bilbao at the weekend.
Diego Simeone’s side will also be bolstered by the return of Pablo Barrios, who has now served his suspension for the red card he received in their League Phase match against Bayer Leverkusen.
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
K. Mbappe
(24 Goals)
J. Alvarez
(16 Goals)
J. Bellingham
(9 Assists)
A. Griezmann
(7 Assists)
, 
M. Llorente
(7 Assists)
Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid Stats in Champions League
Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Six of Real Madrid’s last eight games in all competitions have ended with both teams scoring.
- Real Madrid have scored two or more goals in eight of their last 10 home matches.
- Six of Atletico Madrid’s eight games in this competition ended with both teams scoring.
- Atletico Madrid have only failed to score in one of their last 14 away matches across all competitions.
- Each of the last nine matches between these sides ended with both teams scoring.
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Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
While Real Madrid delivered a very impressive performance against Man City in the playoffs, most would agree that they have not been at their very best this season, as we saw over the weekend.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have been a very tough side to overcome this term, unbeaten in their last 10 games overall and the last three here at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu. It would not surprise us if the visitors take something from this one back to the Metropolitano next week. Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction is both teams to score.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Atletico Madrid over 0.5
Atletico Madrid have scored two or more goals in each of their last three Champions League away games. They have also scored in each of their last 10 matches against this opponent across all competitions.
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Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid match : Frequently asked questions
The Champions League match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will be played on March 4 at 20:00 GMT.
The Champions League match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will take place at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid.
The Champions League match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will be broadcast live TNT Sports 1 in the UK and on Fubo in Spain.
Alternatively, you can keep up to the minute with all the action using our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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