Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath in Champions League Predictions
Under the lights of the picturesque Parc des Princes, two footballing worlds are set to collide on Wednesday night when Paris Saint-Germain face Aston Villa in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie. Les Pairisiens and the Villans are fighting for a spot in the last four, where they will face either Arsenal or Real Madrid. To the match prediction!
PSG fans have ridden an emotional rollercoaster in this season’s Champions League. However, after an incredible comeback to beat Liverpool on penalties in the last round, Luis Enrique’s side is now showing up as the second-favourite to win the competition with most bookies. They will also be beaming with confidence after securing a record-extending 13th consecutive Ligue 1 title over the weekend with six games still to play.
Villa have never beaten French opposition in European competition. Their most recent encounters against such opponents came in the League Phase of this season’s competition, and they lost both games (2-1 to Lille and 1-0 against Monaco). Let’s take a look at some more key stats.
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The Best Betting Odds for PSG v Aston Villa Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.5 | 4.1 | 6 |
|
|
1.44 | 5 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.6 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.45 | 4.7 | 7 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.28 | 6.6 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between PSG and Aston Villa?
Our prediction for the PSG vs Aston Villa match is: over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/04/2025 between PSG and Aston Villa in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 58.82% for a win of PSG against Aston Villa with odds of 1.55 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between PSG vs Aston Villa is 4.79% with odds of 5 at Betfred.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.39% chance ⭐ for a win of Aston Villa vs PSG with odds of 7 at NetBet.
PSG - Aston Villa Prediction and Best Odds:
| PSG Aston Villa Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSG wins | 58.82% | 1.55 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.89% | 1.62 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 45.24% | 1.75 at Vbet |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: PSG | 27.72% | 4.6 at Unibet |
PSG vs Aston Villa Form
PSG and Aston Villa Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
1 Apr 2025 - French Cup
29 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
11 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Mar 2025 - Champions League
1 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
7 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Apr 2025 - French Cup
29 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
11 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Feb 2025 - French Cup
23 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - Premier League
2 Apr 2025 - Premier League
30 Mar 2025 - FA Cup
20 Mar 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Mar 2025 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - Premier League
20 Mar 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
28 Feb 2025 - FA Cup
22 Feb 2025 - Premier League
19 Feb 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Apr 2025 - Premier League
30 Mar 2025 - FA Cup
8 Mar 2025 - Premier League
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
25 Feb 2025 - Premier League
1 Feb 2025 - Premier League
PSG - Aston Villa: Form Analysis
After winning just one of their first four League Phase games and having to wait until the final day to clinch a spot in the knockouts, PSG have now won six of their last seven matches in this competition.
Notably, they have tightened up in defence, keeping clean sheets in three of their last four Champions League games after managing just one shutout in their preceding seven.
However, the Red-and-Blues have been in mixed form at home in this competition. In six matches at Parc des Princes, they have a record of three wins, one draw and two defeats.
Luis Enrique has lost only two of his 10 career encounters against Unai Emery (W7 D1 L2)!
Aston Villa have built up excellent momentum leading up to this crucial encounter. They are currently riding a seven-match win streak across all competitions after beating Nottingham Forest 2-1 over the weekend.
The Lions' success in this competition has been largely attributable to their solid defensive work. They have conceded the third-fewest goals (7) of any team left in the Champions League, only behind Arsenal (6) and Inter Milan (2).
The visitors have a mixed away record in Europe. They have won three of their five such games and scored three goals in each win, but lost their remaining two without finding the back of the net.
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PSG against Aston Villa Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
PSG & Aston Villa Squad Analysis
PSG’s victory over Liverpool came at a slight cost, with their skipper Marquinhos picking up his third yellow of the competition, meaning he will be forced to sit this match out due to suspension.
The only other confirmed absentee for the hosts this week is Kang-In Lee, who last featured for the club in mid-March when he sustained an injury to his ankle.
Nuno Mendes, Bradley Barcola, Joao Neves and Ousmane Dembele were all on the bench for PSG’s weekend win over Angers, and they should be back in the starting 11 for this one.
Dembele has scored seven goals in his last six Champions League games for PSG!
Emery is not the only one set to go up against his former employers here, as PSG loanee Marco Asensio is also eligible to face his parent club and has been in sensational form of late too.
The Spaniard has contributed eight goals in 15 appearances across all competitions since arriving from Paris, three of which have come in two matches in the Champions League.
Marcus Rashford, Ezri Konsa and Jacob Ramsey came off the bench in the weekend’s Premier League game, perhaps suggesting they were saved to start this match.
Ross Barkley is the only confirmed injury absentee for the visitors in this match, while Leon Bailey is flagged as a major doubt.
Most goals and assists
PSG
Aston Villa
O. Dembele
(28 Goals)
O. Watkins
(16 Goals)
B. Barcola
(13 Assists)
O. Watkins
(11 Assists)
PSG - Aston Villa Key Points
- Seven of PSG’s last 10 games in all competitions have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Five of PSG’s last seven Champions League games have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- PSG have only kept one clean sheet in their last five Champions League home games.
- Nine of Aston Villa’s last 10 games in all competitions have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Aston Villa have scored two or more goals in four of their last five Champions League games.
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Our PSG vs Aston Villa Prediction
Given that this is a home fixture, Paris Saint-Germain are likely to look to dictate the game, and they will know the importance of carrying a solid lead back to Villa Park, where they will face a very hostile atmosphere.
However, Villa have been in great shape leading up to this fixture, winning each of their last seven games across all competitions, while scoring two or more goals in all but one of those matches. Thus, we are expecting plenty of goalmouth action in this one. Our PSG vs Aston Villa prediction is over 2.5.
PSG vs Aston Villa - Other Interesting Predictions
Ousmane Dembele to score or assist
Ousmane Dembele has scored 32 goals in 40 matches across all competitions this season, including netting seven in his last six Champions League games. The Frenchman has netted more goals in his last six matches in this competition than in his previous 36 combined.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis PSG Aston Villa
| PSG vs Aston Villa | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG wins | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0% |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.1 | -5.3% |
| Aston Villa wins | 6.5 | 6 | -7.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- PSG is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 66.7% and is now 66.7% (0.0%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the PSG vs. Aston Villa game!
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PSG vs Aston Villa match : Frequently asked questions
The UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg between PSG and Aston Villa will be played on April 9 at 20:00 GMT.
The UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg between PSG and Aston Villa will take place at Parc des Princes in Paris.
The UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg between PSG and Aston Villa will be broadcast on TNT Sports and Discovery+ in the UK and on Canal+ in France.
Alternatively, you can stay up to date with every minute of the action using our UEFA Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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