Portugal vs Slovenia Prediction & Betting Tips - Euro
by Ian John in Euro Predictions
Portugal and Slovenia are gearing up for a crucial Euro 2024 Round of 16 tie on Monday. This match carries significant weight as the two teams met earlier this year in March, with Slovenia causing a major upset by winning 2-0.
Roberto Martinez’s team achieved qualification with a game to spare in their group but lost their final game to Georgia. They still held on to top spot in the group, which handed them this tie with Slovenia, who finished third in England’s group following three draws in three games.
Slovenia has drawn all their last four games, and that has to change if they are to progress here without requiring penalties.
A quarter-final tie against the winner of the France vs Belgium Round of 16 clash awaits the victor in what should be a feisty encounter in Frankfurt on Monday!
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The Best Betting Odds for Portugal v Slovenia Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9 | 1.09 | 26 |
|
|
1.57 | 3 | 7 |
|
|
21 | 1.02 | 34 |
|
|
21 | 1.02 | 34 |
|
|
1.36 | 5 | 9.5 |
|
|
1.33 | 5 | 9.7 |
|
|
8.25 | 1.08 | 26 |
|
|
1.35 | 4.82 | 9.6 |
|
|
1.36 | 5.2 | 9.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Portugal and Slovenia?
Our prediction for the Portugal vs Slovenia match is: Portugal to win and both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 7/1/24 between Portugal and Slovenia in Euro :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.99% for a win of Portugal against Slovenia with odds of 21 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Portugal vs Slovenia is 18.86% with odds of 5.2 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.16% chance ⭐ for a win of Slovenia vs Portugal with odds of 34 at 1xbet.
Portugal - Slovenia Prediction and Best Odds:
| Portugal Slovenia Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal wins | 45.99% | 21 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.71% | 2.23 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 43.75% | 2.1 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Portugal | 18.26% | 4 at Bet365 |
Portugal vs Slovenia Form
Portugal and Slovenia Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jun 2024 - Euro
22 Jun 2024 - Euro
18 Jun 2024 - Euro
11 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
Portugal against Slovenia : Head to Head (H2H)
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
Portugal - Slovenia: Form Analysis
Portugal made quick progress through Group F. A 2-1 comeback win against the Czech Republic in their first game was followed by an impressive 3-1 victory over Turkey in the second. That result ensured that Portugal were not only qualified but would top the group.
Roberto Martinez then rested key players for the game with Georgia, which despite dominating in terms of possession, Portugal surprisingly lost 2-0. That was their first of 13 Euro 2024 qualifiers and finals games that they had not won.
The new look Portugal is a far more open team than the one that won the Euros. Scoring more goals, bit also conceding more as recent form has shown.
Winners of this tournament in 2016, Portugal were eliminated at this stage at Euro 2020, suffering a 1-0 defeat to Belgium. Martinez’s team will also have a recent loss to their opponents to gain revenge for - a 2-0 defeat in the warm-up to the finals earlier this year. That result is likely to focus the team’s efforts even further for this crucial Round of 16 tie.
Slovenia have already surpassed their expectations by reaching the Round of 16 of the tournament. The first time that they had progressed from a group stage of a major finals in their history. Manager Matjaz Kek has developed a team with a strong psychological mindset, that have proven very tough to beat both in qualifying and in the finals so far.
With just one defeat in their 14 games (a 2-1 reverse away to Denmark in qualifying), at one point they had won eight of their previous ten games. Since then have drawn all their next four, including all three games in the Group Stages at Euro 2024 (1-1 v Denmark and Serbia, followed by a 0-0 draw with England).
Defensively, Slovenia have looked solid, but against misfiring attacks in the group stage. They should find Portugal’s attacking threat far more potent in this Round of 16 tie.
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Portugal against Slovenia Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
R. Leao
E. Janza
MidfielderS. Lovric
Portugal & Slovenia Squad Analysis
Portugal are likely to make a number of changes to the team that faced Georgia. Roberto Martinez made seven changes for that game, and might make a similar number for this Round of 16 clash.
Rafael Leao will be available after serving a one-game suspension against Georgia, while Joao Palhinha is likely to return at the heart of midfield.
Without a goal at Euro 2024, Cristiano Ronaldo will spearhead the attack. The creativity of Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes in midfield is likely to be key to getting the legendary striker more involved in the game and on the scoresheet.
At age 41, the evergreen and mercurial Pepe has been as solid as a rock in the heart of the defence alongside Ruben Dias, and their pairing will likely continue in this game, too.
Slovenia boss Matjaz Kek has tended to keep changes to a minimum for his group stage games, but he will be forced into a change at left back, where Erik Janza is suspended after picking up a second yellow card of the tournament against England.
Jure Balkovec is expected to replace him in the team.
Slovenia’s attacking hopes lie with RB Leipzig striker Benjamin Sesko, but it will be interesting to see how many chances they can create against this talented Portuguese side.
Portugal - Slovenia Key Points
- Slovenia have not won any game at Euro 2024 so far, drawing all three.
- Both teams have scored in seven of Slovenia's last ten games.
- Including qualifying, Portugal have won 12 of their 13 Euro 2024 fixtures including two wins at Euro 2024.
- In their last eight games, Portugal has scored 18 goals but also conceded 11.
- Portugal have won 11 of their last 14 games, losing three and drawing none.
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Our Portugal vs Slovenia Prediction
Our prediction for the Portugal vs Slovenia Round of 16 tie at Euro 2024 is: - Portugal to win and both teams to score.
Much has been made about Portugal's 2-0 loss to Georgia in their final group game. However Roberto Martinez did rest key men for that match and in defeat they mustered 23 shots (compared to seven for Georgia) and had 68% possession.
In other words, Portugal dominated the game but got caught twice and paid the penalty.
All with an effective second-choice team playing.
Slovenia never looked likely to beat Denmark or England and hung on in both games against teams with poor attacking prowess at present. It will be their lack of attacking threat against the bigger teams that will likely be their undoing here.
There are defensive issues for Portugal, and Slovenia tends to score goals, which is why both teams to score is a good option. However, pairing that with a Portugal win does look like a great value bet, given the strengths and qualities of both teams playing.
Portugal vs Slovenia - Other Interesting Predictions
Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) to score at any time
Cristiano Ronaldo holds the record for the most appearances and goals in European Championship finals history and after scoring five goals in the 2020 tournament, he has yet to find the mark in the 2024 event.
Despite that, he has been a constant threat for Portugal and it is rare for him to go more than three games without a goal for his country.
In tight games, it is the quality players who make the difference in tournaments like this and Portugal have an abundance of these. Furthermore, they are scoring goals, which is more than any of Slovenia's previous opponents offered up against them.
As such, we feel backing Cristiano Ronaldo to score at any time here is a very strong bet to make for our second prediction on the game.
Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Over 2.5 Goals
Over the last few years, we have seen that both Portugal and Slovenia games have tended to see goals scored, often at both ends of the pitch.
However, with this game being a knockout phase match, there is no reward for the draw. Instead, teams get at least 30 minutes of extra time, often in energy-sapping conditions, and then the prospect of the lottery of a penalty shootout.
Slovenia would take that option now if asked. Portugal will be desperate to avoid it and as such, I can see them having a much greater share of possession and being able to turn that into goals, given the quality of their creative players in midfield and wide areas, as well as Ronaldo leading the attack.
As such, Over 2.5 Goals looks to be a very solid option for our third prediction for this exciting Euro 2024 Round of 16 clash.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Portugal Slovenia
| Portugal vs Slovenia | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal wins | 1.42 | 9 | +533.8% |
| Draw | 4.5 | 1.09 | -75.8% |
| Slovenia wins | 8 | 26 | +225.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Portugal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 533.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 70.4% and is now 11.1% (-59.3%)
bet365 Euros Super Boost
Every day during the Euro 2024 tournament, bet365 is providing super boosts to all of their new and existing players. The Euro boosts are available on single bets only, so they can not be included in multiples and there are maximum stakes on them depending on your situation as one of their customers. They are easy to spot as they will be at the top of the homepage every day and will be indicated by a yellow arrow. The prices will vary day to day but as an example, the first-day bonus is a boost from 1.30 to 2.00 which is huge.
Portugal vs Slovenia match : Frequently asked questions
Italian referee Daniele Orsato will officiate the Portugal vs Slovenia Euro 2024 Round of 16 tie.
Orsato has referred two games previously at the tournament. England's 1-0 win over Servia, as well as Switzerland's 1-1 draw with Germany. He booked six players at the tournament and did not award a red card thus far.
Ciro Carbone and Alessandro Giallatini will be the assistant referees. Espen Eskas of Norway will be the fourth official and Massimiliano Irrati will be the VAR official.
Portugal takes on Slovenia in the Round of 16 at Euro 2024 on Monday 1st July, kick-off 8 pm UK Time.
The game will be played at the Frankfurt Arena, the home of Bundesliga side Eintracht Frankfurt.
This will be the first time either team has played at this stadium during this tournament, although Portugal have played here in past tournaments held in Germany.
BBC One will be showing full live coverage of the Portugal v Slovenia Round of 16 tie. HDR coverage is available on the BBC iPlayer and the game will also be streamed on the BBC Sport website.
You can also keep up to date with all the latest real-time data from the game via the Euro 2024 Livescore pages on the SportyTrader website. An ideal companion to the game, especially those who enjoy In-Play betting on the match!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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