Portugal vs France Prediction & Betting Tips - Euro
by Ian John in Euro Predictions
One of the most fierce and dramatic Euro Finals rivalries is renewed in the quarterfinals of Euro 2024! Portugal v France has given us some of the most dramatic Euro Finals games in history and the teams meet once again in the quarterfinals of Euro 2024 on Friday night.
France, two-time winners of the tournament, have struggled for goals in recent times. They only managed a second-place finish in Group D, finishing a point behind Austria. Les Bleus struggled to create many chances in their Round of 16 tie with Belgium and had to rely on a late own-goal from Jan Verstappen to hand them the 1-0 victory. That win earned them a shot in the quarterfinals against the Portuguese.
Portugal had qualified as top of Group F after winning both their opening two games, so rested players for their final game against Georgia which they lost. Despite that they topped the group and looked dangerous in front of goal, scoring five goals in those opening two victories. However, in the Round of 16 they faced a well-organised and disciplined Slovenia. The Slovenians produced a dogged display to deny Portugal, forcing extra time and then penalties.
Portugal keeper Diogo Costa proved to be the hero, saving all three Slovenian kicks he faced, while Portugal scored all of their trio of penalties for a dramatic 3-0 win.
Their reward is a chance to renew a Euro Finals rivalry in what should be a fantastic quarter-final tie with France, especially with a potential semi-final against Germany or Spain lying in wait!
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The Best Betting Odds for Portugal v France Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
26 | 1.01 | 26 |
|
|
3.4 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
|
|
24 | 1.06 | 25 |
|
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24 | 1.06 | 25 |
|
|
3.35 | 2.95 | 2.4 |
|
|
3.44 | 2.93 | 2.37 |
|
|
14.75 | 1.04 | 14.5 |
|
|
3.38 | 2.91 | 2.42 |
|
|
3.5 | 3 | 2.38 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Portugal and France?
Our prediction for the Portugal vs France match is: Second Half to see the most goals scored.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 7/5/24 between Portugal and France in Euro :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.25% for a win of Portugal against France with odds of 26 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Portugal vs France is 31.38% with odds of 3 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.37% chance ⭐ for a win of France vs Portugal with odds of 26 at Bet365.
Portugal - France Prediction and Best Odds:
| Portugal France Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| France wins | 36.37% | 26 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.31% | 2.48 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | 1.91 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: France | 14.82% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Portugal vs France Form
Portugal and France Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jul 2024 - Euro
26 Jun 2024 - Euro
22 Jun 2024 - Euro
18 Jun 2024 - Euro
11 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jul 2024 - Euro
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
21 Jun 2024 - Euro
17 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
5 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
Portugal against France : Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
67 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
23 Jun 2021 - Euro
14 Nov 2020 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2020 - UEFA Nations League
Portugal - France: Form Analysis
Didier Deschamps’ France started the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign as World Cup runners-up and predictably, they made easy work of qualifying. Topping their group comfortably from the Netherlands and in the past two years, only Germany have beaten the French (doing so twice). Following wins over Chile (3-2) and Luxembourg (3-0) the goals have dried up for France. A 0-0 draw with Canada in their final warm up game was followed by a 1-0 win over Austria, via an own-goal, a 0-0 draw with the Netherlands and a 1-1 draw with Poland, earned by Kylian Mbappe’s penalty.
They also struggled in front of goal against Belgium in the Round of 16. After 85 minutes, Randal Kolo Muani’s shot deflected off Jan Vertonghen and past the Belgian keeper Casteels to give them the lead. France’s progress in the Euros so far has mirrored England’s, with a lack of goals and form being a real problem and the game against Portugal is certainly going to be a real test of their Euro 2024 winning credentials.
In contrast to France, Portugal started the Euro 2024 Finals in good form. Roberto Martinez’s team won all ten of their qualifying games and continued that good run of form in their opener, coming from 1-0 down to defeat the Czech Republic 2-1. Their next performance against Turkey was even better as they put their opponents to the sword, winning 3-0. Martinez rested several players for their final group game with Georgia as qualification and top spot in the group was assured. However, the decision backfired with Georgia winning 2-0.
Next, Portugal faced Slovenia in the Round of 16. After an exhausting game, Portugal won 3-0 on spot kicks, thanks to the heroics of goalkeeper Diogo Costa. France lie in wait in what should be an exciting quarterfinal.
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Portugal against France Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Missing players
R. Leao
A. Rabiot
Portugal & France Squad Analysis
Roberto Martinez does not have any injury or suspension concerns for the game with France, although it will be interesting to see how 41-year-old defender Pepe is physically for this game, coming after he played most of the game and extra time against Slovenia just a few days ago. If Pepe can’t start then Goncalo Inacio will likely deputise in central defence alongside Manchester City’s Ruben Dias.
More interesting will be how Portugal line up in attack. They struggled to create much against Slovenia and it was only when Diogo Jota came on that they started to look more dangerous. The Liverpool man won’t dislodge Cristiano Ronaldo from the attack however, so a place on the bench is more likely.
France will have to make at least one change from their win over Poland. Adrien Rabiot picked up a second yellow card in the tournament in that game and is suspended. Eduardo Camavinga or Youssouf Fofana will likely be the players in contention to replace him in midfield. Their back five will likely be unchanged with Maignan in goal, and Kounde, Upemecano, Saliba and Theo Hernandez being one of the best defensive units in the tournament. Protected by the boundless energy of N’Golo Kante in front of them in a holding midfield role.
Marcus Thuram is under pressure in attack after failing to score at the tournament with Randal Kolo Muani making a big claim for a place in the team after his role in the winning goal against Belgium.
Portugal - France Key Points
- 11 of the last 17 goals scored in the last nine games involving France have come in the second half.
- 19 of the 28 goals scored in Portugal's games in 2024 have come in the second half.
- Every goal, bar one, in France's games at Euro 2024 has been scored in the second half.
- Five of the eight goals scored in Portugal's games at Euro 2024 have come in the second half.
- Portugal has conceded one first-half goal in their last five games.
- France has conceded one first-half goal in their last seven games.
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Our Portugal vs France Prediction
Our prediction for France vs. Portugal Euro 2024 Quarterfinal tie is: - Second Half to see the most goals scored.
The goals seem to have dried up somewhat for France.
In their last five games, they scored three goals conceding one. Their three goals scored at Euro 2024 include two own goals plus a penalty. All of those goals, bar one, came in the second half of games.
Portugal have also gone two games without a goal at Euro 2024, and of the eight goals scored in their Euro 2024 games so far, five have been scored in the second half.
Both sides possess undeniable attacking prowess, despite their recent struggles in front of goal. However, the data suggests this game will be very cagey initially before opening up a little more in the second half. As such, the second half is likely to be the half to see most goals scored is a promising prediction.
Portugal vs France - Other Interesting Predictions
Both Teams to Score - No - and Under 2.5 Goals
A look at the data for both teams leading into this game suggests we are not likely to see too many goals. Portugal have drawn a blank in their past 210 minutes of football, while France have scored three goals in the tournament so far, one penalty and two through own-goals.
However, on the positive side, both teams looked strong defensively with outstanding players for Portugal including defenders Nuno Mendes, Pepe and 'keeper Diogo Costa.
While we have seen flashes from Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann, France's top performers have been defenders William Saliba and Theo Hernandez and tireless defensive midfielder N'Golo Kante.
The data is strongly suggestive of a very tight game with perhaps one or a maximum of two goals scored in the 90 minutes. As such, we've backed both teams to score no and under 2.5 goals as a good value combo bet.
Kylian Mbappe (France) to score at any time
Euro 2024 data and historical data shows that France v Portugal clashes tend to be very close games and recently, goals have been at a premium in fixtures for both teams. As such, it may take a moment of brilliance from one of the star players on show in order to break the deadlock in the game.
While there are potential matchwinners on both sides, Kylian Mbappe of France is the best bet to be the player to change the game by scoring a goal. He netted France's only goal scored by a French player in this tournament, against Poland, and as we saw in that game, he is also the French's penalty kick taker.
With Portugal struggling to create much in front of goal, and Cristiano Ronaldo still without a goal in this tournament, Mbappe looks the prime candidate to score at any time in this game, which is why this is our third prediction for the game.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Portugal France
| Portugal vs France | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal wins | 3.25 | 26 | +700.0% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 1.01 | -68.9% |
| France wins | 2.25 | 26 | +1,055.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- France is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 1,055.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 44.4% and is now 3.8% (-40.6%)
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Portugal vs France match : Frequently asked questions
Portugal will take on France in the second of the four quarterfinals of Euro 2024, kicking off at 8pm UK time on Friday 5th July 2024.
The game will take place at the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg, northern Germany, the home ground of Bundesliga II team SV Hamburg.
Portugal and France first met back in April 1926 and they contested a total of 28 matches including that first encounter.
The French hold the upper hand in the fixture, having won 19 of those 28 games. Portugal have amassed just six wins over France in that period, with just three matches between the two finishing as draws.
However, two of the last three games between the teams ended in a draw: a 0-0 in the Nations League in October 2020 and a 2-2 draw in the 2020 European Championships Group Stages in a match held in Budapest, Hungary.
They met a total of four times in the European Championship Finals. They battled out one of the competitions' greatest-ever games when France won 3-2 back in the 1984 semi-final clash between the two. France were then 2-1 winners back in June 2000, but Portugal gained their sole victory in 2016, beating the French 1-0 in the final of Euro 2016 to win the trophy.
Their other meeting was the previously mentioned 2-2 draw in Euro 2020, a game which featured three penalties and two goals apiece for Karim Benzema (France) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal).
The Portugal v France European Championship 2024 quarter-final will be shown live on BBC One. UK fans can also catch the game online for free at the BBC Sport website and also on the BBC iPlayer app.
If you would like a complete statistical breakdown of the game, then check out the Euro 2024 Livescore pages at SportyTrader for a free-of-charge, real-time updated stats and data service, complete with a customizable text commentary on the action.
In what has been a tournament of contrasting weather, both teams should find conditions for Friday's quarterfinal in Hamburg comfortable.
There is a good chance of rain during the game, although it should not be heavy or prolonged. Wind conditions will be light with occasional breezes, and the temperature should be around 19 degrees centigrade at kick-off time.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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