Portugal - Liga Portugal
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by Ian John in Liga Portugal Predictions
Sunday sees one of the biggest Primeira Liga fixtures of the season as FC Porto hosts Benfica. The Dragoes are unbeaten at home this season and will provide a stern test for As Aguias In what is always an explosive match. Let’s check out our prediction for this season-defining game in more detail.
Each team’s current league position underscores the significance of this game. FC Porto lie third (56 pts from 27 games) but are nine points behind Benfica in second. The Eagles are tied with leaders Sporting on 65 points from their 27 games but have a poorer goal difference (+43 compared to +50 for Sporting).
Recent games between these two teams have been packed with goals and incidents. A good example is the last two matches between the teams, the most recent of which saw Benfica earn a 4-1 victory at the Stadium of Light earlier this season. However, before that, FC Porto thrashed Benfica 5-0 in this fixture last season. A similar defeat for the famous Lisbon team here would be catastrophic for their hopes of pipping Sporting to the league title.
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The Best Betting Odds for Porto v Benfica Lisbon Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.4 | 3.3 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.25 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.4 | 2.45 | 2.4 |
|
|
3.5 | 3.4 | 2.22 |
|
|
3.5 | 3.4 | 2.22 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Porto and Benfica Lisbon?
Our prediction for the Porto vs Benfica Lisbon match is: Benfica to win by 1 Goal.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/04/2025 between Porto and Benfica Lisbon in Liga Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 25.4% for a win of Porto against Benfica Lisbon with odds of 3.56 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Porto vs Benfica Lisbon is 26.14% with odds of 3.55 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 48.46% chance ⭐ for a win of Benfica Lisbon vs Porto with odds of 2.43 at Melbet.
Porto - Benfica Lisbon Prediction and Best Odds:
| Porto Benfica Lisbon Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica Lisbon wins | 48.46% | 2.43 at Melbet |
| Under 2.5 | 59.17% | 1.92 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 52.92% | 1.8 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time / Full-time: Benfica Lisbon/Benfica Lisbon | 19.98% | 4.2 at Betfair |
Porto vs Benfica Lisbon Form
Porto and Benfica Lisbon's standings in the Liga Portugal
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
72 | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 49 |
|
4
|
62 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 31 |
Porto and Benfica Lisbon Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
15 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
8 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
1 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
24 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
20 Feb 2025 - Europa League
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
24 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
13 Feb 2025 - Europa League
7 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
26 Jan 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Jan 2025 - Europa League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
8 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
1 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
20 Feb 2025 - Europa League
16 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
3 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
28 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
16 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
11 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
5 Mar 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
8 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
5 Mar 2025 - Champions League
26 Feb 2025 - Taca de Portugal
22 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Feb 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
16 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
11 Mar 2025 - Champions League
15 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
2 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
Porto vs Benfica Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
10 Nov 2024 - Liga Portugal
3 Mar 2024 - Liga Portugal
29 Sep 2023 - Liga Portugal
9 Aug 2023 - Super Cup
7 Apr 2023 - Liga Portugal
21 Oct 2022 - Liga Portugal
Porto - Benfica Lisbon: Form Analysis
FC Porto made a strong start to the season, but a stuttering run of one win in seven games from January to February put paid to any realistic title hopes they had. Since then, the Dragons have won three and lost one of their last four.
Goals have been in short supply for FC Porto recently.
Only two of their last nine games have seen over 2.5 goals scored and they have scored just 12 goals in those games (conceding seven).
They do come into this game on the back of two successive wins in the Primeira Liga, however. They beat AVS Futebol 2-0 at home and in their most recent fixture last weekend earned a 2-1 win away to mid-table Estoril.
In contrast, Benfica have bounced back well from a sticky period over the New Year and into January when they lost three of four league games. Since then, the Eagles have won all their last eight games.
Those 24 points collected have drawn them level with their great rivals Sporting Lisbon at the top of the table, and they have also been finding the net with unerring frequency in the last couple of months.
In seven of those eight wins, Benfica scored three goals, and in the last six games they played, they kept a clean sheet in four of those games.
They won their last away game 3-0 at Gil Vicente and followed that up with a 3-2 win at home to Farense in midweek.
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Players list
D. Costa
DefenderN. Perez
I. Marcano
Ze Pedro
W. Gomes
MidfielderM. Fernandes
A. Varela
F. Vieira
ForwardG. Borges
S. Aghehowa
D. Namaso
A. Trubin
DefenderS. Dahl
A. Silva
N. Otamendi
A. Fernandez
MidfielderO. Kokcu
F. Luis
F. Aursnes
ForwardA. Schjelderup
L. Barreiro
A. Belotti
Substitutes
C. Ramos
DefenderOtavio
Ze Pedro
M. Fernandes
W. Gomes
A. Franco
T. Perez
ForwardD. Namaso
G. Borges
S. Soares
DefenderA. Bajrami
MidfielderS. Dahl
L. Barreiro
A. Belotti
Z. Amdouni
Bruma
A. Schjelderup
A. Cabral
Missing players
I. Jaime
Porto & Benfica Lisbon Squad Analysis
FC Porto come into this key game with Vasco Sousa out through a broken fibula that has seen him miss the last six games and long-term absentee Marko Grujic, who has been out since the end of October with a heel injury.
Striker Samu Aghehowa (formerly Samu Omorodion) has been impressive for the Dragons this season, netting 15 Primeira Liga goals in just 22 games. He has also earned his first full cap for Spain this season.
Goalkeeper Diogo Costa is viewed as one of the best in Europe.
The shot-stopper has attracted plenty of interest from other top European clubs recently and will be a key man between the sticks for the home team here.
Benfica boss Bruno Lage will be without injured right-back Alexander Bah and midfielders Renato Sanches and Manu Silva for this tricky trip to Porto.
Vangelis Pavlidis has scored 21 goals in all competitions for Benfica.
The striker, winger Kerem Akturkoglu and midfielder Orkun Kokcu have been their main attacking threats this season.
Veteran Argentineans Nicolas Otamendi and Angel di Maria are both available and will likely start for the visitors on Sunday.
Most goals and assists
Porto
Benfica Lisbon
S. Aghehowa
(22 Goals)
V. Pavlidis
(26 Goals)
F. Moura
(9 Assists)
K. Akturkoglu
(9 Assists)
,
V. Pavlidis
(9 Assists)
Porto - Benfica Lisbon Key Points
- FC Porto have drawn three of the last four at the Estadio do Dragao.
- Benfica come into this game having won all their last eight games (scoring 22, conceding 8).
- The previous game this season saw Benfica emerge as 4-1 winners in Lisbon.
- In the last eleven matches between the teams, eight players have been sent off.
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Our Porto vs Benfica Lisbon Prediction
Our prediction for the FC Porto vs. Benfica Primeira Liga match is: Benfica to win by 1 Goal.
This is a crucial match for Benfica after having hauled in Sporting Lisbon over the last eight games. FC Porto have a daunting home record, but they were well beaten by Benfica earlier this season and have struggled in three of their last four at home only drawing three of the last four. Benfica's fantastic form means that the data suggests a very close game, but the visitors have enough firepower to clinch the win by a single goal.
Porto vs Benfica Lisbon - Other Interesting Predictions
Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica) to score at any time.
Our secondary prediction for this key game is for Benfica's top-scoring striker, Vangelis Pavlidis, to score at any time in the match.
This looks a solid bet as not only has Pavlidis been Benfica's main goal threat this season, he has shone in the big games, notably netting a hat-trick in their incredible 5-4 Champions League - League Stage defeat to Barcelona a couple of months back.
He has also scored in four of Benfica's last five games, and is their penalty taker and as such offers a good value bet as a secondary choice.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Porto Benfica Lisbon
| Porto vs Benfica Lisbon | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porto wins | 2.63 | 3.4 | +29.3% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 3.3 | +6.5% |
| Benfica Lisbon wins | 2.75 | 2.15 | -21.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Benfica Lisbon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 21.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 36.4% and is now 46.5% (10.1%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Porto vs. Benfica Lisbon game!
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Try your luck on this year's Liga Portugal! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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