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by Steve Ashfield in World Cup Predictions
Poland look to get off to a winning start in their 2026 World Cup qualifying group. They host Lithuania on Friday and the other countries in this group are Finland, Malta and the losers of the Netherlands v Spain Nations League quarter-final. Here's our match prediction.
The Poles have successfully qualified for the last two World Cup Finals. 2022 saw them reach the last 16 of the tournament where they were beaten by France. They had a disappointing Nations League campaign with four of their six group fixtures against Portugal, Croatia and Scotland lost.
The Eagles will find this home game against Lithuania a bit easier. They have won two of their last three games against Lithuania and kept a clean sheet in the last two. Only once have they been beaten at home by Lithuania but that was 19 years ago.
Lithuania have never qualified for the finals of either the European Championships or World Cup. They have lost their last seven matches and last won a match away in Latvia in June of last year.
Their last four away World Cup qualifying matches have all been lost without them scoring. Just one goal has been scored in their last eight away World Cup qualifiers. We tip Poland to win to nil.
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The Best Betting Odds for Poland v Lithuania Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.25 | 5.5 | 13 |
|
|
1.2 | 5.5 | 11 |
|
|
1.22 | 6.5 | 13 |
|
|
1.27 | 5.77 | 14.2 |
|
|
1.27 | 5.77 | 14.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Poland and Lithuania?
Our prediction for the Poland vs Lithuania match is: Poland to win to nil.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/03/2025 between Poland and Lithuania in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 58.29% for a win of Poland against Lithuania with odds of 1.27 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Poland vs Lithuania is 7.22% with odds of 6.8 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.5% chance ⭐ for a win of Lithuania vs Poland with odds of 15 at Tonybet.
Poland - Lithuania Prediction and Best Odds:
| Poland Lithuania Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Poland wins | 58.29% | 1.27 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.77% | 1.6 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 58.33% | 2.8 at Vbet |
| Half-time / Full-time : Poland/Poland | 27.33% | 1.8 at Bet365 |
Poland vs Lithuania Form
Poland and Lithuania's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
|
3
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Poland and Lithuania Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
21 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
10 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
26 Mar 2024 - Euro
12 Oct 2023 - Euro
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jun 2024 - Baltic Cup
26 Mar 2024 - UEFA Nations League
17 Oct 2023 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Jun 2024 - Baltic Cup
21 Mar 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2023 - Euro
Poland vs Lithuania Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
12 Jun 2018 - International Friendlies
Poland against Lithuania Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Most goals and assists
Poland
Lithuania
K. Swiderski
(2 Goals)
G. Gineitis
(1 Goals)
,
A. Kucys
(1 Goals)
Poland - Lithuania Key Points
- Poland have won two of their last three games against Lithuania.
- Poland have kept a clean sheet in their last two home fixtures against Lithuania.
- Lithuania have only scored in one of their last eight away World Cup qualifiers.
- At all venues, Lithuania have only scored in two of their last nine World Cup qualifiers.
- Poland have kept a clean sheet in two of their last three home World Cup qualifying matches.
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Our Poland vs Lithuania Prediction
The winner of this group automatically qualifies for the 2026 World Cup. The second-placed country goes into the play-offs and that is likely to be Poland's best chance of qualification. They dare not drop points in this opening qualifier at home to Lithuania. Their Nations League group was a difficult one for them but they will feel more at home playing Lithuania at home on Friday.
The away side continually fail to qualify for major tournament finals. They also struggle to score away from home in World Cup qualifiers. Our Poland v Lithuania prediction is Poland to win to nil.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Poland Lithuania
| Poland vs Lithuania | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland wins | 1.13 | 1.25 | +10.6% |
| Draw | 7.5 | 5.5 | -26.7% |
| Lithuania wins | 23 | 13 | -43.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Poland is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 10.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 88.5% and is now 80.0% (-8.5%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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