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Poland vs Croatia Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
by Devesh Jaganath in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Poland will be hoping to keep their UEFA Nations League quarter-final qualification hopes alive this week when they take on Croatia at Stadion Narodowy on Tuesday night. The White and Reds are third in League A Group 1, while the Checkered Ones are second, behind group leaders Portugal. Check out our match prediction below!
When these two met on matchday two at the Opus Arena in Osijek, Croatia secured a 1-0 victory thanks to a second-half strike by national legend Luka Modric. That result marked the Croat’s second consecutive victory against Poland. Across the six all-time matches between these nations, the Checkered Ones have won four, the Poles have won one, and one game ended level.
Thus, the visitors enter this match as the favourites at the books, but will the possibility of relegation spur the hosts on to upset the odds? Let’s dive into the key stats to consider in this one.
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The Best Betting Odds for Poland v Croatia Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.88 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.3 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.01 | 3.44 | 2.45 |
|
|
3.01 | 3.44 | 2.45 |
|
|
3.3 | 3.35 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.36 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.36 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.05 | 3.45 | 2.45 |
|
|
3.32 | 3.4 | 2.18 |
|
|
3.3 | 3.45 | 2.23 |
|
|
3.06 | 3.28 | 2.48 |
|
|
2.88 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
|
|
3 | 3.35 | 2.43 |
|
|
2.9 | 3.1 | 2.38 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.4 | 2.35 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Poland and Croatia?
Our prediction for the Poland vs Croatia match is: Both teams to score!
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 15/10/2024 between Poland and Croatia in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.66% for a win of Poland against Croatia with odds of 3.32 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Poland vs Croatia is 14.07% with odds of 3.45 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 53.27% chance ⭐ for a win of Croatia vs Poland with odds of 2.5 at Bet365.
Poland - Croatia Prediction and Best Odds:
| Poland Croatia Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Croatia wins | 53.27% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.18% | 2.14 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 64.58% | 1.83 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Croatia | 25.1% | 6 at Bet365 |
Poland vs Croatia Form
Poland and Croatia's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
|
4
|
4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 |
Poland and Croatia Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
21 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
21 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
10 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
21 Mar 2024 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
26 Mar 2024 - Euro
12 Oct 2023 - Euro
10 Sep 2023 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
19 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
19 Jun 2024 - Euro
3 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
21 Nov 2023 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2023 - Euro
Poland vs Croatia Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Poland - Croatia: Form Analysis
Poland got their Nations League campaign off to a solid start, clinching a dramatic 3-2 victory over Scotland with Nicola Zalewski scoring the winner in the seventh minute of stoppage time.
However, the Red and Whites were unable to build on that result, suffering back-to-back defeats thereafter. The first was against their upcoming opponents and the most recent was a 3-1 battering at the hands of Portugal.
Those results leave the Poles trailing second place in the group by three points, meaning a loss here will see them needing consecutive wins in the last two matches in the group - and that may still not be enough.
Nevertheless, given their home record, Poland cannot be completely ruled out here.
Over their last home 10 games, Poland have only lost once (W7 D2 L1)!
Meanwhile, Croatia came up short against Cristiano Ronaldo and co in their opening match of the competition, but since then, they have notched up back-to-back victories over Poland and Scotland.
Notably, against the Scots last week, the Checkered Ones came back from a goal behind to win 2-1. That result means that the loss to Portugal is the only one they’ve conceded in their last five in all competitions.
On the road, the visitors have an above-average record with only one defeat suffered in their last five outings, while the remaining four games in that time all ended in victory.
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Poland against Croatia Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Poland & Croatia Squad Analysis
Michal Probierz made a bold decision to take off Sebastian Walukiewicz for Jakub Kiwior at the halftime break against Portugal. That change seemed to make a difference as the Poles tightened up defensively in the second period, conceding only a late own-goal.
As a result, the Arsenal man could be handed the start this week, likely alongside Jan Bednarek and Pawel Dawidowicz. Lukasz Skorupski should continue in goal in the absence of Bartlomiej Dragowski.
Luka Modric is likely to make his 182nd appearance for Croatia in this match!
Mario Pasalic partnered Modric in the Croat’s engine room last week but he was hauled off at the interval, which may suggest that Manchester City’s Mateo Kovacic will get the nod from the start this time.
With this being an away game, Zlatko Dalic may consider reverting to a four-at-the-back formation, which could see Kristijan Jakic brought in, potentially in place of former Spurs man Ivan Perisic.
Most goals and assists
Poland
Croatia
S. Szymanski
(2 Goals)
,
N. Zalewski
(2 Goals)
,
P. Zielinski
(2 Goals)
L. Modric
(1 Goals)
,
A. Kramaric
(1 Goals)
,
I. Matanovic
(1 Goals)
,
B. Sosa
(1 Goals)
,
M. Baturina
(1 Goals)
,
P. Sucic
(1 Goals)
,
J. Gvardiol
(1 Goals)
R. Lewandowski
(2 Assists)
,
K. Urbanski
(2 Assists)
M. Baturina
(1 Assists)
,
P. Sucic
(1 Assists)
,
K. Jakic
(1 Assists)
Poland - Croatia Key Points
- Eight of Poland’s last 10 matches have ended with both teams scoring.
- Poland have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last eight matches.
- Poland have only failed to score in one of their last eight matches.
- Five of Croatia’s last seven matches have ended with both teams scoring.
- Croatia have only failed to score in one of their last nine matches.
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Our Poland vs Croatia Prediction
While these two sides played out a 1-0 result in their last encounter, given the current table standings, especially Poland’s need to win this match, we are expecting a much more open contest this time.
Despite criticism of having an ageing squad, Croatia continues to find results, with veterans like Modric still pulling the strings. Poland and the likes of Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski tend to turn up more often than not on their home soil and will need to do so here. Our Poland vs Croatia prediction: Both teams to score!
Poland vs Croatia - Other Interesting Predictions
Over 2.5
Six of Poland’s last eight matches have ended with over 2.5 goals, while three or more goals were scored in seven of Croatia’s last nine.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Poland Croatia
| Poland vs Croatia | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland wins | 3.2 | 2.88 | -10.0% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.4 | 0% |
| Croatia wins | 2.2 | 2.5 | +13.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Croatia is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 13.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 45.5% and is now 40.0% (-5.5%)
2 Goals Ahead Early Payout
More than 80 leagues and competitions are available on this football promotion from bet365. If the team that you have backed takes a two-goal lead at any point in the game, then your bet is a winner. This counts on both single bets and on multiple placed on the full time market, though of course on a multiple it is only the game in question that is marked as a winner, all the other selections still have to win as well.
A bet placed on any enhanced price is not valid for this offer, nor any bet that is cashed out. If you have partially chased out, the remainder of the stake is paid out as a winner. If your acca selection would have been a loser but for this offer then you will not gain any acca boost winnings. So for example, your team goes 2-0 up so you are paid out as a winner but the end result is 2-2, your bet is still a winner if all the other selections win but you do not gain any acca boost.
Poland vs Croatia match : Frequently asked questions
The UEFA Nations League match between Poland and Croatia will be played on October 15 at 19:45 GMT.
The UEFA Nations League match between Poland and Croatia will take place at Stadion Narodowy in Warszawa.
The UEFA Nations League match between Poland and Croatia will be broadcast on ITV in the UK.
Alternatively, you can stay up to the minute with all the UEFA Nations League Livescores right here on SportyTrader!
Alejandro Hernandez will take charge of this match, with the assistance of Jose Naranjo, Diego Sanchez and Juan Pulido as the fourth official.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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