Poland vs Austria Prediction & Betting Tips - Euro
by Ian John in Euro Predictions
Poland faces Austria in a massive Group D Euro 2024 fixture. Both sides are seeking to recover after opening-game losses to the Netherlands and France, respectively. Both teams had their moments against their more illustrious opponents but were left pointless.
That means this game is effectively a must-win clash for both teams, especially with another very difficult fixture for their third game lying in wait beyond this crucial second game in the group stage.
The Poles found the net in their 2-1 defeat to the Netherlands and will be hopeful of doing so again with the imminent return of striking superstar Robert Lewandowski from a thigh injury.
Meanwhile, Ralf Rangnick's Austria lost 1-0 to France in their opener but they were able to carve out a few chances which should give them confidence.
With Euro 2024 survival hanging in the balance, it should be an action-packed and drama-filled encounter between the two on Friday evening!
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The Best Betting Odds for Poland v Austria Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
401 | 41 | 1 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.4 | 1.95 |
|
|
3.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.3 | 3.3 | 2 |
|
|
451 | 51 | 1 |
|
|
451 | 51 | 1 |
|
|
4.2 | 3.3 | 1.95 |
|
|
100 | 16.5 | 1.01 |
|
|
3.76 | 3.5 | 1.99 |
|
|
3.75 | 3.55 | 2.04 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Poland and Austria?
Our prediction for the Poland vs Austria match is: Austria to win.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 6/21/24 between Poland and Austria in Euro :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 28.45% for a win of Poland against Austria with odds of 451 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Poland vs Austria is 32.28% with odds of 51 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.27% chance ⭐ for a win of Austria vs Poland with odds of 2.3 at Ladbrokes.
Poland - Austria Prediction and Best Odds:
| Poland Austria Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Austria wins | 39.27% | 2.3 at Ladbrokes |
| Under 2.5 | 61.78% | 2 at Betfred |
| Both Team To Score | 54.17% | 1.83 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Austria | 15.79% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Poland vs Austria Form
Poland and Austria's standings in the Euro
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
|
4
|
1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 |
Poland and Austria Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
10 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - Euro
21 Mar 2024 - Euro
21 Nov 2023 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
21 Nov 2023 - International Friendlies
Poland against Austria : Head to Head (H2H)
9 Sep 2019 - Euro
Poland - Austria: Form Analysis
With both Poland and Austria losing their opening Euro 2024 fixture, those results somewhat fly in the face of the generally good recent form shown by both teams.
Poland's 2-1 defeat to the Netherlands was their first in nine games, winning five and drawing three of those previous encounters. Michal Probierz has overseen a gradual improvement in his team since taking over in September 2023, culminating in them reaching the Euro 2024 Finals via the Nations League playoffs, beating Estonia 5-1 and then Wales on penalties.
The Poles can also point to a very good record against today's opponents. In 11 games against Austria, Poland has won six, losing just three and drawing two. Their last defeat against Austria came 30 years ago, a 4-3 loss in May 1994. Since then they have won three and drawn two of the games they have played against this opposition.
Austria boss Ralf Rangnick won't be fazed by his team's relatively poor record against the Poles. Ahead of their 1-0 defeat to France in their Euro 2024 opener, with an unfortunate own-goal from Max Wober being the only difference between the two teams, Austria had been in superb form.
A 2-0 friendly win over Germany in Vienna in November 2023 is a landmark victory.
And it was followed by a 2-0 away win in Slovakia in March, followed just three days later by arguably their best performance in recent times - a 6-1 thrashing of Turkey. Their final two warm-up fixtures saw them beat Serbia 2-1 and then drew 1-1 away to Switzerland.
Given that run of form and the manner of their unfortunate loss to France, Austrian fans can feel confident of taking something from this game with Poland. And in doing so, kick start their Euro 2024 campaign!
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Poland against Austria Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
R. Lewandowski
P. Wimmer
G. Trauner
Poland & Austria Squad Analysis
Adam Buksa's goal against the Dutch may ensure that it is Kacper Urbanski that drops out of the team to facilitate the return of talisman Robert Lewandowski in attack. The Barcelona superstar having recovered from a thigh injury which kept him out of the game with the Netherlands.
Lewandowski has 150 caps for his country and has scored 82 goals.
Those figures highlight just how key he is to the Poland team, even at the ripe-old age of 35.
Poland boss Michal Probierz may also elect to play Brighton's Jakub Molder and Verona's Karol Swiderski from the start after both made impressive contributions down the flanks after coming on as substitutes against the Dutch.
The question is whether Ralf Rangnick feels his team also needs a tactical or personnel change after their narrow 1-0 defeat to France. Fans will clamor for youngster Patrick Wimmer to be given a chance in a wide attacking-midfield role, while vice-captain Marko Arnautovic is another who could be given a chance either out wide or as a central attacker in the preferred 4-2-3 -1 system.
However, given their performances in the games before their loss to France, it seems likely Rangnick will stick with the majority, if not all, who started that game. However, with five players receiving a yellow card against the French, they will be walking a disciplinary tight-rope ahead of the third game in the group.
Poland - Austria Key Points
- Austria are 8-2-2 since June 2023 with their only defeats coming by a single goal margin against Belgium and France
- Poland have managed just one win away from home in 90 minutes in the last 12 months, which came against 133rd ranked Faroe Islands.
- Before their 1-0 loss to France, Austria had been unbeaten in seven games with wins over Germany, Slovakia, Turkey and Serbia and a draw with Switzerland.
- Austria are ranked 25th in the FIFA World Rankings, compared to 28th for Poland. They have a much better record against higher ranked teams than the Polish team.
- Prior to their most recent result, Austria had found the net in 17 straight games.
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Our Poland vs Austria Prediction
Our prediction for the Poland v Austria Euro 2024 clash is for Austria to win . Head coach Ralf Rangnick has molded his team into a very competitive outfit that boasts a good record against even the best teams in Europe over the past 18 months or so. Furthermore, they have played most of their recent games without the injured captain and talisman David Alaba.
Austria has recently enjoyed impressive wins over Slovakia, Germany, Serbia, and Turkey (a 6-1 thrashing). They were unfortunate to lose to an own goal against France, and they also squandered a couple of good goalscoring opportunities in that game. Chances that they are unlikely to spurn against a lesser opponent in Poland.
Poland's form is solid, but nowhere near as impressive as Austria's and given their comparative records, our main prediction here is for Austria to take the win.
Poland vs Austria - Other Interesting Predictions
Michael Gregoritsch (Austria) to score at any time
Against France, Michael Gregoritsch was the focal point of the Austrian attack and with Marko Arnautovic likely to be used from the bench, he will likely start again here. However, this time the striker may find more scoring opportunities against a weaker Polish defensive line.
With Marcel Sabitzer and Christoph Baumgartner prompting from their attacking midfield roles, Austria should create opportunities in this game and as the central striker, it is Gregoritsch's job to finish them off.
So our secondary prediction for Poland v Austria is for Gregoritsch to score at any time for Austria.
Over 2.5 Goals
What is notable in most of Poland and Austria's most recent matches is that they do tend to score goals. With both sides very much in need of a victory in this game, we can see this being a more open game than either of their opening matches in the tournament.
Poland's attack will be boosted by the return of Robert Lewandowski, their talismanic, free-scoring striker, who immediately upgrades their attack.
However, having performed very well against France, and with a number of very good wins behind them in recent months, Austria will be confident of their attack finding the mark against a Polish defense that doesn't instil huge confidence in them keeping a team out .
As such, our other secondary prediction here is for Over 2.5 Goals to be scored in the game.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Poland Austria
| Poland vs Austria | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland wins | 3.9 | 401 | +10,182.1% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 41 | +1,105.9% |
| Austria wins | 2 | 1 | -50.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Austria is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 50.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 50.0% and is now 100.0% (50.0%)
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Poland vs Austria match : Frequently asked questions
Poland and Austria will face off in Group D of the European Championship Finals on Friday June 21, 2024. Kick-off is 5pm UK Time.
The match will be played at the home of Hertha Berlin, the Olympiastadion, which will also host the final of the tournament.
In the United Kingdom, ITV 1 will be showing the game live, with kick off at 5pm UK Time.
The game will also be streamed live on the ITV Website and also on the ITVX app.
Remember, you can follow all the action for the Euros on the SportyTrader Euro 2024 Livescore pages, an ideal resource for anyone that wants real-time data on any game!
Weather reports suggest that it will be a very warm day in Berlin on Friday for the Poland v Austria game. Temperatures are expected to reach 27 degrees centigrade. That will translate into a good few degrees warmer at the pitchside.
However, scattered thunderstorms are likely throughout the day. Some of these could be very heavy and persistent and will likely affect pitch conditions markedly if it does rain during the game.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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