England - Championship
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by Joseph King in Championship Predictions
A true relegation six-pointer is in store for Saturday in the Championship as bottom-placed Plymouth Argyle do battle with 22nd-place Derby County for matchday 38. This match could have a significant outcome on which team goes down and which team survives the drop. Read on for our prediction!
After just barely skirting relegation in the 2023/24 season, Plymouth are once again involved in a fight for their Championship lives.
However, a surprise 2-1 away win over Portsmouth on Wednesday has breathed new life into the Pilgrims survival chances and earned them their first away league win of the season. The victory also snapped a six-match winless run across all competitions which included losses in the prior three straight appearances.
Heading into the weekend’s fixtures, Miron Muslic’s side are sitting three points from safety. They have a lot of work to do if they are to start to carve away at their staggering -36 goal differential.
Their opponents, Derby, are experiencing a very similar situation at the moment. While they are one point behind 21st-placed Cardiff, the Rams have strung together back-to-back wins for only the second time all season.
A 2-1 home win over Blackburn last weekend was followed up with a 2-0 home victory over Coventry on Tuesday to revitalize their hopes of avoiding relegation.
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The Best Betting Odds for Plymouth v Derby County Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.1 | 3 | 2.45 |
|
|
3.2 | 2.88 | 2.5 |
|
|
3.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
|
|
3.25 | 2.92 | 2.5 |
|
|
3.25 | 2.92 | 2.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Plymouth and Derby County?
Our prediction for the Plymouth vs Derby County match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 15/03/2025 between Plymouth and Derby County in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.78% for a win of Plymouth against Derby County with odds of 3.5 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Plymouth vs Derby County is 31.45% with odds of 3.03 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 23.78% chance ⭐ for a win of Derby County vs Plymouth with odds of 2.8 at Ladbrokes.
Plymouth - Derby County Prediction and Best Odds:
| Plymouth Derby County Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth wins | 44.78% | 3.5 at Ladbrokes |
| Under 2.5 | 57.02% | 1.78 at Unibet |
| Both Team To Score | 56.25% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Plymouth | 24.58% | 6.5 at Bet365 |
Plymouth vs Derby County Form
Plymouth and Derby County's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
21
|
46 | 44 | 12 | 10 | 22 | -9 |
|
24
|
43 | 44 | 10 | 13 | 21 | -37 |
Plymouth and Derby County Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Mar 2025 - Championship
8 Mar 2025 - Championship
4 Mar 2025 - Championship
1 Mar 2025 - FA Cup
22 Feb 2025 - Championship
19 Feb 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2025 - Championship
22 Feb 2025 - Championship
12 Feb 2025 - Championship
9 Feb 2025 - FA Cup
1 Feb 2025 - Championship
22 Jan 2025 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Mar 2025 - Championship
4 Mar 2025 - Championship
1 Mar 2025 - FA Cup
19 Feb 2025 - Championship
15 Feb 2025 - Championship
25 Jan 2025 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Mar 2025 - Championship
8 Mar 2025 - Championship
1 Mar 2025 - Championship
22 Feb 2025 - Championship
14 Feb 2025 - Championship
11 Feb 2025 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Mar 2025 - Championship
8 Mar 2025 - Championship
22 Feb 2025 - Championship
11 Feb 2025 - Championship
1 Feb 2025 - Championship
21 Jan 2025 - Championship
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2025 - Championship
14 Feb 2025 - Championship
8 Feb 2025 - Championship
25 Jan 2025 - Championship
14 Jan 2025 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2025 - Championship
Plymouth vs Derby County Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
9 Nov 2024 - Championship
Plymouth against Derby County Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Most goals and assists
Plymouth
Derby County
R. Hardie
(11 Goals)
J. Yates
(10 Goals)
N. Mendez Laing
(4 Assists)
,
J. Yates
(4 Assists)
Plymouth - Derby County Key Points
- Plymouth have scored 30 goals at home in the league compared to just eight on the road.
- Both teams have scored in 13 of Plymouth’s 18 home Championship matches, tied for the second most in the division.
- Derby have seen both teams score in 11 of their 18 home league fixtures.
- The reverse fixture finished 1-1 back in matchday 15.
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Our Plymouth vs Derby County Prediction
Plymouth are a completely different team on the attacking side when playing at Home Park this season. An incredible 78% of their league goals have come at this ground. Combined with their league-worst defense that has allowed 72 goals, the result has often led to high-scoring encounters at this ground.
Derby will be hoping the momentum they’ve picked up in the last two games will help to offset their terrible away results. The visitors should be able to find the net but will likely concede at least one as well. Our Plymouth vs Derby prediction: both teams to score.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Plymouth Derby County
| Plymouth vs Derby County | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth wins | 2.75 | 3.1 | +12.7% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3 | -9.1% |
| Derby County wins | 2.5 | 2.45 | -2.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Plymouth is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 12.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 36.4% and is now 32.3% (-4.1%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Plymouth vs. Derby County game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Plymouth and Derby County? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's Championship! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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