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Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
by Kennedy Kechula in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Northern Ireland will be aiming to go top of Group C3 of the UEFA Nations League, when they welcome Bulgaria to Belfast. The Norn Iron are third on four points, one behind The Lions ahead of this Match Day 4 clash. This is one of the tightest groups in League C and we have a prediction of the match at hand.
It is not a fixture that has historically worked for Northern Ireland so they’ll have to be at their best as they seek promotion. A draw away to Belarus in their last match means they have a lot to play for as they return home after two matches on the road.
There will also be plenty for the visitors to play for, and having the head-to-head edge will work well for them. Bulgaria won the first meeting with Northern Ireland and will be looking to complete a double. They haven't won a lot of games lately though.
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The Best Betting Odds for Northern Ireland v Bulgaria Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.83 | 3.2 | 5.25 |
|
|
2.2 | 2.25 | 4.6 |
|
|
1.86 | 3.22 | 5.03 |
|
|
1.86 | 3.22 | 5.03 |
|
|
1.82 | 3.25 | 4.8 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.34 | 4.7 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.34 | 4.7 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.1 | 4.7 |
|
|
1.84 | 3.36 | 4.7 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.35 | 4.7 |
|
|
1.92 | 3.2 | 4.8 |
|
|
1.75 | 2.9 | 5 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.2 | 4.75 |
|
|
1.87 | 3.26 | 5.1 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.2 | 4.75 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Northern Ireland and Bulgaria?
Our prediction for the Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria match is: Game to end in a draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 15/10/2024 between Northern Ireland and Bulgaria in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 34.71% for a win of Northern Ireland against Bulgaria with odds of 2.2 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria is 37.68% with odds of 3.36 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.61% chance ⭐ for a win of Bulgaria vs Northern Ireland with odds of 5.25 at Bet365.
Northern Ireland - Bulgaria Prediction and Best Odds:
| Northern Ireland Bulgaria Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 37.68% | 3.36 at Melbet |
| Under 2.5 | 76.44% | 1.9 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 25% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 17.94% | 4.33 at Bet365 |
Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria Form
Northern Ireland and Bulgaria's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
|
2
|
9 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -3 |
Northern Ireland and Bulgaria Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
20 Nov 2023 - Euro
17 Oct 2023 - Euro
14 Oct 2023 - Euro
19 Jun 2023 - Euro
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
22 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
17 Nov 2023 - Euro
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
22 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2023 - Euro
14 Oct 2023 - Euro
20 Jun 2023 - Euro
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2023 - Euro
10 Sep 2023 - Euro
Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2021 - World Cup
31 Mar 2021 - World Cup
Northern Ireland - Bulgaria: Form Analysis
Northern Ireland were wasteful in their 0-0 draw with Belarus, spurning the chance to go top of this group. They will hope to do better here, though facing Bulgaria hasn’t come very promising for the hosts.
In the reverse fixture back in September, Northern Ireland lost 1-0. The draw with Belarus was their second straight away game and they will be happy to return home, where they have three straight wins.
Northern Ireland have actually lost just once in their last five matches at home and they kept four clean sheets, only conceding once in the five matches.
At home in the Nations League, they have two straight wins, and only lost once in five.
Bulgaria have dominated this match over the years and come here with five wins in six meetings.
Bulgaria are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Northern Ireland. Kiril Despodov’s goal in September handed them a fifth win in six meetings with Northern Ireland.
They’ve conceded only one goal in their last five matches against Northern Ireland and will want to keep this dominance going. That home win, however, stands as their only victory in the last six matches.
While they are unbeaten in nine matches, Bulgaria have managed just two wins in that period. Apart from their win over their Tuesday hosts, Bulgaria’s other victory was against Tanzania in a March friendly.
They are also unbeaten in the last seven Nations League matches, winning three and keeping five clean sheets.
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Northern Ireland against Bulgaria Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Northern Ireland & Bulgaria Squad Analysis
Conor Bradley was a standout performer against Belarus after taking the armband for the match. He will be a sure starter as the hosts look to reap on his current form.
Jamie Reid will also be a strong contender for a second straight start after returning to the team. The Stevenage forward missed the September matches as a precautionary measure.
Callum Marshall will be another source for attacking power as well as Lee Bonis who got his first cap last week. While Northern Ireland will be spoilt for choice in attack, they remain lean at the back.
Goalkeepers Bailey Peacock-Farrell and Conor Hazard are both out with injuries. Pierce Charles did well on his debut against Belarus and will continue in goal.
Injury-hit Northern Ireland look strong in attack but could have problems at the back.
In the Bulgarian camp, most of the players are available. The most notable absentee for the game will be Leeds United man Ilia Gruev who has a knee injury.
Skipper Kiril Despodov, scorer in the reverse fixture will once again carry the weight of the team in attack. He has 15 international goals and the PAOK man scored Bulgaria’s last two goals in the Nations League.
Most goals and assists
Northern Ireland
Bulgaria
I. Price
(4 Goals)
V. Panayotov
(1 Goals)
,
K. Despodov
(1 Goals)
,
A. Kraev
(1 Goals)
S. Charles
(3 Assists)
A. Kolev
(1 Assists)
Northern Ireland - Bulgaria Key Points
- Bulgaria have four straight draws away from home.
- Northern Ireland lost only once in their last five home matches.
- Six of Bulgaria’s last 10 Nations League matches produced draws.
- Bulgaria are unbeaten in nine matches but won only twice in that run.
- Two of Northern Ireland’s last five home Nations League matches ended in draws.
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Our Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria Prediction
Bulgaria have been the dominant side in this fixture but Northern Ireland have lately impressed when playing at home. To prevail here, Bulgaria will have to be at the top of their game, as their hosts are also seeking a rise in this group.
The visitors are coming here on an unbeaten run of nine matches. However, a majority of them were draws. With this form and also in consideration of Northern Ireland’s home performances, spoils could be shared here. Our prediction for Northern Ireland v Bulgaria is for the game to end in a draw.
Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria - Other Interesting Predictions
Under 2.5 goals
The foundation of Northern Ireland’s strong form at home has to be their defence. They have four clean sheets in five home matches and conceded just once in the process. Bulgaria have also been strong defensively in their recent matches.
They have four clean sheets in five matches, and conceded once in that period. For both teams, low scores have been a fixture. With that, our second prediction is for under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Northern Ireland Bulgaria
| Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland wins | 1.8 | 1.83 | +1.7% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.2 | -3.0% |
| Bulgaria wins | 4.75 | 5.25 | +10.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 3.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 30.3% and is now 31.3% (0.9%)
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Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria match : Frequently asked questions
The Northern Ireland v Bulgaria match will be played on Tuesday 15th October.
The Northern Ireland v Bulgaria match will be played at the Windsor Park in Belfast.
The Northern Ireland v Bulgaria match will be shown live on ITV for Northern Ireland fans. Those in Bulgaria can catch the game on BNT and NOVA Bulgaria. You may also follow the match updates via the SportyTrader UEFA Nations League Livescores page.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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