Newcastle vs Southampton Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
by Devesh Jaganath in Premier League Predictions
Newcastle United will get their 2024-25 Premier League season underway this weekend when they take on newly promoted Southampton at St James’ Park on Saturday afternoon. The Toon Army will be out in their numbers for this opening match of the new campaign against the Saints, who will be hoping to make a winning return to the top flight. Check out our prediction below.
The Magpies ended last season in seventh place with 60 points in their 38 games, while Southampton beat Leeds United in the Championship playoff final at Wembley Stadium to return to the Premier League at the first time of asking.
The hosts are heavily fancied to secure the points in this season-opener, but the visitors have made a few notable signings this summer and cannot be written off without a chance here. Let’s break down the key stats and our thoughts for this opening week encounter.
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The Best Betting Odds for Newcastle v Southampton Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.05 | 11 | 251 |
|
|
1.35 | 5.5 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.06 | 10 | 201 |
|
|
1.06 | 10 | 201 |
|
|
1.33 | 5.5 | 8 |
|
|
1.35 | 5.45 | 7.6 |
|
|
1.2 | 4.9 | 37 |
|
|
1.34 | 5.55 | 7.8 |
|
|
1.34 | 5.8 | 8.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Southampton?
Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Southampton match is: Newcastle Total Goals - Over 1.5!
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/08/2024 between Newcastle and Southampton in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 52.79% for a win of Newcastle against Southampton with odds of 1.35 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Southampton is 16.66% with odds of 11 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.55% chance ⭐ for a win of Southampton vs Newcastle with odds of 251 at Bet365.
Newcastle - Southampton Prediction and Best Odds:
| Newcastle Southampton Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 52.79% | 1.35 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.58% | 2.34 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 53.75% | 1.67 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time / Full-time : Newcastle/Newcastle | 22.82% | 2.1 at Bet365 |
Newcastle vs Southampton Form
Newcastle and Southampton's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
|
19
|
0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 |
Newcastle and Southampton Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
27 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
24 May 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
7 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
27 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
24 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
Newcastle against Southampton : Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Apr 2023 - Premier League
31 Jan 2023 - Carabao Cup
24 Jan 2023 - Carabao Cup
6 Nov 2022 - Premier League
10 Mar 2022 - Premier League
28 Aug 2021 - Premier League
Newcastle - Southampton: Form Analysis
Newcastle will be disappointed with their performance last season, having dropped three places from the previous campaign while also missing out on European football after Manchester United won the FA Cup at the end of the term.
The Magpies ended the season with a record of 18 wins, six draws and 14 losses, scoring 85 goals while conceding 62. They won three, drew one and lost one of their final five fixtures.
At home, Eddie Howe’s side notched up 12 wins, four draws and three defeats in 19 games, which was the fourth-best home record in the division.
Newcastle scored 49 goals at home, the same tally that league winners Manchester City scored on their home patch!
Meanwhile, Southampton had a shaky start to the season in the Championship but ended the season well and managed to secure a playoff berth by finishing in fourth place with 87 points in 46 games.
Over the course of the season, the Saints produced 26 wins, nine draws and 11 defeats, before overcoming West Bromwich Albion and Leeds United in the playoff rounds to secure promotion.
Russell Martin’s team took a total of 39 points from their 23 regular season away games last term. That tally was good for the third-best record in the division behind automatic promotion recipients Leicester City and Ipswich Town.
However, the visitors have lost each of their last five matches in league and cup competition against this opponent and conceded two or more goals in all but one of those games.
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Newcastle against Southampton Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Missing players
J. Lascelles
S. Botman
F. Schar
MidfielderL. Miley
J. Willock
ForwardC. Wilson
G. Bazunu
ForwardR. Stewart
K. Sulemana
Newcastle & Southampton Squad Analysis
Newcastle will begin the new season without the services of Sven Botman, Lewis Miley, Jamaal Lascelles, Callum Wilson and Fabian Schar, all of whom are currently sidelined due to injury.
The Magpies have signed Lewis Hall from Chelsea and William Osula from Sheffield United during the summer break and both will be in contention to make the starting 11 for this match.
Newcastle's Alexander Isak ranked third among the league's top-scorers with 21 goals last term!
Southampton have just one absentee for this opening match of the season in the form of Kamaldeen Sulemana, though his injury is reportedly not too serious and he should be able to return to action in the next week or two.
The Saints have been busy in the transfer market, with their marquee signing so far being Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Manchester City. They have also brought in Flynn Downes from West Ham and Ben Brereton Diaz from Villareal.
Adam Armstrong was Southampton’s leading scorer with 21 goals last term and he should lead the line here following the departure of Che Adams to Torino over the summer.
Newcastle - Southampton Key Points
- Newcastle United were the fourth-highest-scoring team in the league last season.
- Newcastle United averaged 2.2 goals per 90 last season.
- Newcastle United scored two or more goals in four of their last five Premier League matches.
- Newcastle United scored two or more goals in seven of their last 10 home games.
- Newcastle United have scored two or more goals in five of the last six matches against this opponent.
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Our Newcastle vs Southampton Prediction
While Newcastle experienced a notable dip in their league position last season, the one area they were very impressive in was their attacking output, where they finished just one goal short of third-placed Liverpool.
The Magpies could hardly have hoped for a better opening fixture than this one and we feel that they will be able to find the net at least a couple of times against their newly promoted opponents. Our Newcastle United vs Southampton prediction: Newcastle Total Goals - Over 1.5!
Newcastle vs Southampton - Other Interesting Predictions
Handicap Newcastle -1
Newcastle have beaten Southampton by two clear goals in four of their last five encounters dating back to 2022.
Alexander Isak to score Anytime
The Swede was in sensational form last season and ended with 21 goals, which was only behind Erling Haaland and Cole Palmer in the Golden Boot standings.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Newcastle Southampton
| Newcastle vs Southampton | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 1.42 | 1.05 | -26.1% |
| Draw | 4.75 | 11 | +131.6% |
| Southampton wins | 6.5 | 251 | +3,761.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Newcastle is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 26.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 70.4% and is now 95.2% (24.8%)
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Newcastle vs Southampton match : Frequently asked questions
The Premier League match between Newcastle United and Southampton will take place on August 17, at 15:00 GMT.
The Premier League match between Newcastle United and Southampton will be played at St James’ Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.
The Premier League match between Newcastle United and Southampton will broadcast live on Sky Sports in the UK.
If you are not close to your TV set. you can still keep up-to-the-minute with all the Premier League Liverscores this weekend right here on SportyTrader!
Craig Pawon will take charge of this match, with the assistance of Marc Perry, Mark Scholes and Dean Whitestone as the fourth official.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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