Netherlands vs England Prediction & Betting Tips - Euro
by Ian John in Euro Predictions
England will face the Netherlands for the third time in a European Championship finals on Wednesday evening in Dortmund in what promises to be an electric Euro 2024 semi-final! France or Spain lie in wait in the tournament's final match in Berlin on Sunday, and the Three Lions and Oranje will be ready to battle it out for that second Euro 2024 final berth. Let’s take a closer look at our key prediction for this game.
The Netherlands only qualified from their group by finishing as one of the four best third-place teams, behind Austria and France. However, since then, Ronald Koeman’s team has looked strong, earning a comfortable win over Romania in the Round of 16 and a come-from-behind win against a very attack-minded Turkey side in the quarterfinal.
England topped their group despite winning just one of their three group games. However, they have found wins difficult to come by in the tournament. Slovakia pushed Gareth Southgate’s team to the brink of exit from the competition before a last-gasp equaliser and early goal in extra time saw England through the Round of 16. The quarterfinal against Switzerland was even closer, with penalties required after a 1-1 draw for England to progress to their second consecutive European Championship semi-final.
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The Best Betting Odds for Netherlands v England Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
501 | 41 | 1 |
|
|
3.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
|
|
501 | 41 | 1.01 |
|
|
501 | 41 | 1.01 |
|
|
3.1 | 2.8 | 2.75 |
|
|
3.34 | 2.79 | 2.52 |
|
|
12.75 | 1.08 | 10.25 |
|
|
3.18 | 2.8 | 2.63 |
|
|
3.15 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Netherlands and England?
Our prediction for the Netherlands vs England match is: A draw at full time (90 minutes).
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/07/2024 between Netherlands and England in Euro :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 34.52% for a win of Netherlands against England with odds of 501 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Netherlands vs England is 30.24% with odds of 41 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.24% chance ⭐ for a win of England vs Netherlands with odds of 10.25 at Stake.
Netherlands - England Prediction and Best Odds:
| Netherlands England Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| England wins | 35.24% | 10.25 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.32% | 7.18 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 52.08% | 1.95 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: England | 14.18% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Netherlands vs England Form
Netherlands and England Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jul 2024 - Euro
2 Jul 2024 - Euro
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
21 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
10 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jul 2024 - Euro
30 Jun 2024 - Euro
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
16 Jun 2024 - Euro
7 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
Netherlands against England : Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Jun 2019 - UEFA Nations League
23 Mar 2018 - International Friendlies
Netherlands - England: Form Analysis
The Netherlands have lost three of their last 15 games, drawing just one and winning 11 of those matches. At Euro 2024, they began with a 2-1 win over Poland, but were then held to a 0-0 draw with France. However the Dutch suffered a surprise 3-2 loss to Austria in their final group game. That meant the Netherlands qualified for the knockout stage as one of the four best third-place teams.
In the Round of 16, they produced their best tournament display, defeating Romania 3-0. Then in the quarterfinal, they fell behind against Turkey but struck back with two quickfire goals in the second half to claim an impressive 2-1 victory.
Dutch fans will hope for a similar result to the one they achieved against England in Stuttgart in Euro '88. A stunning Marco Van Basten hat-trick saw the Netherlands land a 3-1 win over Bobby Robson’s England on their way to lifting the trophy.
Gareth Southgate’s England began the tournament with a 1-0 win over Serbia, but struggled in their next game against Denmark, which ended in a 1-1 draw. The Three Lions claws were blunted once again in their final group game, a 0-0 draw with Slovenia, which was enough for England to finish top of Group C.
England were close to elimination against Slovakia in the Round of 16.
That was until Jude Bellingham’s overhead kick rescued England in injury time and forced extra time. Harry Kane’s early goal in the added time proving to be the difference in a 2-1 victory. Bukayo Saka was the man to step up in the team's quarter-final clash with Switzerland, scoring a brilliant long range effort to pull the team level at 1-1 in the 80th minute. The game would then be decided on penalties, with England scoring all five spot kicks in a 5-3 shootout victory.
England fans will be hoping for a repeat of the score when the teams last met in a European Championship Finals in 1996, when England defeated the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
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Netherlands against England Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Missing players
M. Depay
K. Trippier
L. Shaw
Netherlands & England Squad Analysis
Neither England or the Netherlands have any players suspended for this game, and with yellow cards from previous matches in the tournament wiped, nobody will miss the final due to two bookings in the tournament.
Netherlands coach Ronald Koeman has started the same team in their knockout phase victories. However, there are questions about whether he will make changes here. Steven Bergwijn could find his place under threat from Donyell Malen or Jeremie Frimpong. Koeman could also elect to play a more conservative midfield, dropping Xavi Simons and bringing in Joey Veerman.
Cody Gakpo has been the Netherlands' most eye-catching player.
The Liverpool man scored three goals in this tournament and almost scored a fourth against Turkey, but the final touch came from a Turkish defender.
Despite calls for significant alterations to his team, Gareth Southgate has resisted major changes, with the only switches for England coming in the midfield, where Trent Alexander-Arnold, Conor Gallagher and Kobbie Mainoo have all started.
Southgate did switch to a 3-4-3 formation for the game with Switzerland. However, the personnel selected largely remained the same. Although Luke Shaw played for a few minutes against the Swiss, he could be considered for the problematic left-back slot for England.
Marc Guehi is back from his ban and available for selection.
It is a choice between Guehi and his replacement, Ezri Konsa, for a role in central defence. The Crystal Palace defender has been England’s best player in what has otherwise been a disappointing tournament for England’s big-name stars.
Netherlands - England Key Points
- England have drawn all their last four games at Euro 2024 at the end of 90 minutes.
- Five of the seven major semi-finals played by the Netherlands have required extra time.
- Seven of the last 15 games between the two teams have finished as a draw.
- All of England's three post-1966 major semi-final ties at the World Cup and Euros have gone into extra time.
- These two teams are close in the FIFA rankings, with England fifth compared to the Netherlands seventh.
- The last game between the two was a Nations League semi-final, which finished 1-1 at full time, with the Netherlands winning 3-1 after extra time.
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Our Netherlands vs England Prediction
Our Netherlands vs. England prediction is: A draw at full-time (90 minutes).
England have drawn their last four games at the Euros in 90 minutes and four of the last eight against the Dutch, and the last game between the two also went to extra time.
Additionally, the major semi-finals these teams have been involved in over the years have generally all gone to extra time (many to penalties), and data shows extra time is likely here. As such, we're backing the draw at the end of 90 minutes for this second semi-final.
Netherlands vs England - Other Interesting Predictions
Netherlands to score first
Our second prediction for the Netherlands vs England second Euro 2024 semi-final is for the Dutch to score first. In their three past semi-finals at major tournaments, England have conceded first in two of the three semi-finals they have played in and they have also conceded first in their two knockout phase games at Euro 2024 too.
The Dutch have been more freescoring than England in this tournament, scoring nine goals so far but they have conceded five. England mustered just five goals, but only conceded three. As such, the data suggests the Dutch are probably more likely to score out of the two teams.
As such, our secondary prediction is for the Dutch to take the lead in this game by scoring the opening goal.
Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) to score at any time
Our final prediction for the Netherlands vs England semi-final at Euro 2024 is based on the fact we think the Dutch will score first and the man who has been rock solid in front of goal for them both at Euro 2024 and in the 2022 World Cup, has been Liverpool man Cody Gakpo.
The Dutch left-sided striker scored three goals at Euro 2024 and was instrumental in the winning goal in the quarter-final against Turkey, where he forced the Turkish defender to put the ball into his own net. With the other Dutch strikers and midfielders only contributing four goals between them, Gakpo has been their most reliable scoring threat for two major tournaments now.
He is also very familiar with playing against the English defence, hence he is a very solid bet to be an anytime goalscorer in this game.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Netherlands England
| Netherlands vs England | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands wins | 3.1 | 501 | +16,061.3% |
| Draw | 3 | 41 | +1,266.7% |
| England wins | 2.5 | 1 | -60.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- England is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 60.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 100.0% (60.0%)
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Netherlands vs England match : Frequently asked questions
ITV 1 will be showing the Netherlands v England Euro 2024 semi-final live on their free-to-air channel and also streamed live on the ITVX website and app.
Customers who want to follow the data of this game can tune in to the Euro 2024 Livescore pages on the SportyTrader website to enjoy a fantastic array of real-time data on the match, including betting-related data and text commentary on the action.
The Netherlands' semi-final clash at Euro 2024 against England will be the 23rd time that the two teams have met internationally.
The record between the two teams is close, but the Dutch hold a slight advantage with seven wins to England's six, with nine matches between the two drawn.
In major finales, they have met three times. In 1988, the Dutch were 3-1 winners in Euro 88, Marco Van Basten scoring a hat-trick in that game. Then in 1990 in the group stages, the teams shared a 0-0 draw.
They then met at Euro 96 when England ran out 4-1 winners at Wembley in the group stages.
The last game was a Nations League semi-final back in 2019, when after a 1-1 draw at 90 minutes, the Netherlands ran out 3-1 winners.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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