Italy - Serie A
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by Kennedy Kechula in Serie A Predictions
Having led the Italian Serie A for the better part of the season, Napoli were toppled at the most crucial time – when the league is heading to the end. They are not all done and dusted but predictions ahead of their home match against AC Milan don’t look too promising for the Azzurri.
Antonio Conte’s men are in a state where they have to handle each and every match as a must-win now. Heading into this game, Napoli have managed 61 points, just three behind Inter Milan. An inferior goal difference isn’t helping matters either.
It isn’t like the pressure is only Napoli; Milan are also dealing with their own worries. A series of poor results have left them ninth, drawn out of the European football slots. The Super Coppa winners are coming off two straight wins but those were against low-lying sides. Victory away to Napoli would be a bigger statement and confidence booster. Let’s have a deeper look at the match.
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The Best Betting Odds for Napoli v AC Milan Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.4 | 4.5 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.36 | 4.5 | 7.5 |
|
|
2.2 | 2.45 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.46 | 4.64 | 7.79 |
|
|
1.46 | 4.64 | 7.79 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Napoli and AC Milan?
Our prediction for the Napoli vs AC Milan match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/03/2025 between Napoli and AC Milan in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 53.24% for a win of Napoli against AC Milan with odds of 2.2 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Napoli vs AC Milan is 24.62% with odds of 5 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 22.15% chance ⭐ for a win of AC Milan vs Napoli with odds of 9 at Vbet.
Napoli - AC Milan Prediction and Best Odds:
| Napoli AC Milan Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins | 53.24% | 2.2 at Ladbrokes |
| Under 2.5 | 51.36% | 1.97 at Betobet |
| Both Team To Score | 65.42% | 1.8 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time : Napoli/Napoli | 22.75% | 3.1 at Betsson |
Napoli vs AC Milan Form
Napoli and AC Milan's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
71 | 33 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 27 |
|
9
|
51 | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 13 |
Napoli and AC Milan Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Mar 2025 - Serie A
9 Mar 2025 - Serie A
1 Mar 2025 - Serie A
23 Feb 2025 - Serie A
15 Feb 2025 - Serie A
9 Feb 2025 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Mar 2025 - Serie A
1 Mar 2025 - Serie A
9 Feb 2025 - Serie A
25 Jan 2025 - Serie A
12 Jan 2025 - Serie A
29 Dec 2024 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Mar 2025 - Serie A
23 Feb 2025 - Serie A
15 Feb 2025 - Serie A
2 Feb 2025 - Serie A
18 Jan 2025 - Serie A
4 Jan 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2025 - Serie A
8 Mar 2025 - Serie A
2 Mar 2025 - Serie A
27 Feb 2025 - Serie A
22 Feb 2025 - Serie A
18 Feb 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2025 - Serie A
2 Mar 2025 - Serie A
18 Feb 2025 - Champions League
15 Feb 2025 - Serie A
5 Feb 2025 - Coppa Italia
2 Feb 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2025 - Serie A
27 Feb 2025 - Serie A
22 Feb 2025 - Serie A
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - Serie A
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
Napoli vs AC Milan Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Oct 2024 - Serie A
11 Feb 2024 - Serie A
29 Oct 2023 - Serie A
18 Apr 2023 - Champions League
12 Apr 2023 - Champions League
2 Apr 2023 - Serie A
Napoli - AC Milan: Form Analysis
The one consolation Napoli will carry into the final matches of the season is that their main competitor, Inter Milan, has a tougher run. AC Milan and Bologna next are Napoli’s toughest matches in the season remainder.
However, having struggled against a number of low-ranking opposition will not build in home fans the requisite confidence. Case in point is Napoli’s latest outing, where they drew 0-0 with Venezia. That came weeks after they suffered a shock loss to Como.
The past few matches have brought out Napoli’s inconsistent nature, winning just once in the last seven matches. They’ve had a good run at home though, winning four of six matches in which they are unbeaten.
Napoli are almost assured of a return to the Champions League.
While a return to the Champions League could be guaranteed for Napoli in the coming weeks, Milan are nowhere close to any European competition. Four points separate Milan from the European positions in Serie A.
They can still qualify for the Europa League via the Coppa Italia but that’s still some distance away. Also the Champions League would fit their profile better, thus Milan should be going for a top four finish.
The distance between them and the top four is what makes this sound like an impossible mission. After a three-game winless run, Milan are coming off two straight wins, beating Lecce, and most recently, Como. The challenge in the next game gets stiffer and Milan will be tested more.
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Players list
A. Meret
DefenderG. Di Lorenzo
A. Buongiorno
A. Rrahmani
M. Olivera
MidfielderB. Gilmour
P. Billing
J. Jesus
ForwardC. Ngonge
G. Simeone
P. Mazzocchi
M. Maignan
DefenderA. Jimenez
M. Gabbia
S. Pavlovic
T. Hernandez
MidfielderY. Fofana
R. Leao
T. Reijnders
S. Chukwueze
ForwardL. Jovic
S. Gimenez
Substitutes
C. Turi
S. Scuffet
DefenderP. Mazzocchi
R. Marin
J. Jesus
P. Billing
L. Hasa
ForwardN. Okafor
C. Ngonge
G. Simeone
G. Raspadori
M. Esposito
M. Sportiello
L. Torriani
DefenderA. Florenzi
A. Jimenez
F. Tomori
M. Thiaw
MidfielderF. Terracciano
S. Chukwueze
S. Gimenez
R. Sottil
R. Leao
L. Jovic
Missing players
N. Contini
Emerson
Napoli & AC Milan Squad Analysis
While Romelu Lukaku doesn’t feature a lot in discussions about top forwards, he remains a key member of this Napoli team. His 10 goals in the league say just half the story.
He has been directly involved in eight goals against AC Milan and one of them came in the reverse fixture this season. Apart from his 10 league goals this season, he has also provided eight assists and comes here with an xG rating of 10.19.
While Napoli have the burly Belgian to look up to for goals, the match might have come too soon for David Neres. The Brazilian, who has two goals and four assists in Serie A, has just returned to training and may not be risked.
Milan have more options in attack compared to Napoli.
There’s no better player to focus on for Milan than Christian Pulisic. In his second season with Milan, Pulisic is three goals shy of his tally of 12 in the league last season.
Coming into this game, the American has scored three times in Milan’s last two matches. In both matches, Milan needed to come from behind and Pulisic played a crucial role.
Apart from his nine league goals, Pulisic has also provided six assists. His comfort shooting with both feet says a lot about his importance to this team. He has attempted shots from both inside and outside the 18-yard area and of his 40 shots, 50% were on target.
He carries an xG of 9.00 and an amazing passing accuracy of 84% to this match. As Pulisic is deployed in midfield, Milan will have more attacking options in Tammy Abraham or Santiago Gimenez.
Emerson Royal and Yunus Musah will, however, miss this match. While Royal is back in training, he isn’t ready for this game but Musah is suspended.
Most goals and assists
Napoli
AC Milan
R. Lukaku
(12 Goals)
C. Pulisic
(13 Goals)
, 
T. Reijnders
(13 Goals)
R. Lukaku
(10 Assists)
R. Leao
(9 Assists)
,
C. Pulisic
(9 Assists)
Napoli - AC Milan Key Points
- Both teams scored in Milan’s last six matches.
- Both teams scored in eight of Napoli’s last nine matches.
- Napoli managed just two clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
- Napoli’s last 11 home league matches produced only four clean sheets.
- Playing away from home, Milan managed just one clean sheet in 10 matches.
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Our Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction
Regarding the two sides’ ambitions for the remainder of the season, and especially regarding the Serie A, this is a ‘must-win’ clash. Therefore, we are in for an exciting end to end battle at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
With both sides’ main attackers available, we will most definitely have goals in this match. Napoli failed to score in their last game but that was a rare occurrence. They will likely bounce back here. That is why our prediction for Napoli v Milan is for both teams to score.
Napoli vs AC Milan - Other Interesting Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
Each of Milan’s last five matches produced over 2.5 goals. The same is true for half of Napoli’s last 10 matches as well. As we expect an attacking game, we should also be in line for a high-scoring match. Therefore, our second prediction here would be for over 2.5 goals to be scored.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Napoli AC Milan
| Napoli vs AC Milan | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins | 2 | 1.4 | -30.0% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 4.5 | +28.6% |
| AC Milan wins | 3.6 | 7.5 | +108.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Napoli is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 30.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 50.0% and is now 71.4% (21.4%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Napoli vs. AC Milan game!
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Napoli vs AC Milan match : Frequently asked questions
The Napoli v Milan match will be played on Sunday 30 March.
The Napoli v Milan match will be hosted at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
The Napoli v Milan match will be officiated by:
Simone Sozza as center referee,
Alessandro Giallatini and Valerio Colarossi as assistant referees,
Matteo Marchetti as the fourth official.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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