Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa America
by Sridhar in Copa America Predictions
A place in the 2024 Copa America quarterfinals is on offer as Mexico and Ecuador face off on matchday three.
The Group B finale at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, on Monday morning will decide who joins Venezuela in the quarterfinals. Both sides have three points from two games, winning against Jamaica and losing to Venezuela.
Ecuador have an edge as they have a goal difference of plus one compared to Mexico’s zero. They just need a draw to progress, while Mexico needs a win here to make it out of the group.
As both teams look to put their indifferent form to bed and advance, here’s everything you need to know about Mexico vs Ecuador.
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The Best Betting Odds for Mexico v Ecuador Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15 | 1.06 | 21 |
|
|
3.1 | 2.15 | 3 |
|
|
3.21 | 2.02 | 4.48 |
|
|
3.21 | 2.02 | 4.48 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.1 | 2.75 |
|
|
2.74 | 3.07 | 2.77 |
|
|
2.85 | 3.2 | 2.65 |
|
|
2.88 | 3.09 | 2.62 |
|
|
2.85 | 3.2 | 2.65 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Mexico and Ecuador?
Our prediction for the Mexico vs Ecuador match is: Ecuador Double Chance.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 6/30/24 between Mexico and Ecuador in Copa America :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.23% for a win of Mexico against Ecuador with odds of 15 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Mexico vs Ecuador is 21.43% with odds of 3.2 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.34% chance ⭐ for a win of Ecuador vs Mexico with odds of 21 at Bet365.
Mexico - Ecuador Prediction and Best Odds:
| Mexico Ecuador Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico wins | 40.23% | 15 at Bet365 |
| Under 2.5 | 59.21% | 2.09 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 31.25% | 2.05 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Mexico | 16.87% | 6.5 at Bet365 |
Mexico vs Ecuador Form
Mexico and Ecuador's standings in the Copa America
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
|
3
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Mexico and Ecuador Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jun 2024 - Copa America
22 Jun 2024 - Copa America
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
5 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
31 May 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jun 2024 - Copa America
22 Jun 2024 - Copa America
16 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
12 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
Mexico against Ecuador : Head to Head (H2H)
5 Jun 2022 - International Friendlies
Mexico - Ecuador: Form Analysis
Mexico started the tournament with a nervy 1-0 win over lowly Jamaica on matchday one. The lone goal came from Gerardo Arteaga in the 69th minute. Mexico were then pegged back in the second game, as they lost 1-0 to Venezuela, with Salomon Rondon scoring a 57th-minute goal via a penalty.
This defeat made it three losses from their last four matches, as they entered the tournament on the back of defeats to Uruguay and Brazil. Those games saw them concede seven goals, which underlines their concerns around defensive problems. Their recent form in the Copa America isn’t any comfort for the Mexicans, who lost two and drew one of their last four matches in this competition.
Ecuador had a feisty start to their tournament, losing 2-1 to Venezuela on matchday one. A 22nd-minute red card to captain Enner Valencia was a big loss, although they did take the lead via a Jeremy Sarmiento goal in the 40th minute. Venezuela took advantage of the extra man in the second half to score two goals in the 64th and 74th minutes to win the game.
Ecuador managed to turn things around in their second match, winning 3-1 against Jamaica. They scored a goal early in the 13th minute through Piero Hincapie, before a Kendry Paez penalty goal in the 45th minute doubled their lead. Jamaica did pull one back in the second half, but Ecuador ensured the two-goal lead was restored with a late goal from Alan Minda. That win marked a third victory across four matches, scoring eight goals in the three wins, although conceding in each of the four games.
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Mexico against Ecuador Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
E. Alvarez
E. Valencia
Mexico & Ecuador Squad Analysis
Mexico received a huge blow to their tournament hopes as captain Edson Alvarez was injured against Jamaica. Luis Romo took his place alongside Luis Chavez and could once again be the man to start. There were quite a few debutants for Mexico in the tournament, and the likes of Cesar Huerta, Israel Reyes, and Alexis Vega are likely to get more match time.
Ecuador will be boosted by the return of captain Enner Valencia, who received a red card on matchday one and missed their second day. Kevin Rodriguez played against Jamaica in his place and could be the one to make it.
Mexico - Ecuador Key Points
- Mexico have lost three of their last four matches
- In the Copa Americas, Mexico have failed to win three of their last four matches
- Ecuador won three of their last four matches
- In all competitions and friendlies, Ecuador have lost only four of their last 16 matches, winning ten and drawing two
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Our Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction
To say that Mexico is in a mess would be an understatement, as their last few months have been troubling. While their off-field troubles have pegged them back, their on-field struggles have put them in a tight spot. Three defeats in their last four matches mean Mexico don’t have too much momentum going into this must-win fixture. As for Ecuador, they are in a slightly better spot, and their recent form also augurs well. Additionally, the return of Enner Valencia should lift their spirits, while Edson Alvarez’s absence could further deplete Mexico. Our prediction for Mexico vs Ecuador is a double chance for Ecuador.
Mexico vs Ecuador - Other Interesting Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
Enner Valencia to score anytime
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Mexico Ecuador
| Mexico vs Ecuador | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico wins | 2.5 | 15 | +500.0% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 1.06 | -67.4% |
| Ecuador wins | 2.8 | 21 | +650.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Mexico is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 500.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 6.7% (-33.3%)
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Mexico vs Ecuador match : Frequently asked questions
The Mexico vs Ecuador Copa America Group A match will be available live on TV in the USA on FOX, Fubo, and Univision. In Canada, it will be available on TSN and RDS. In the UK, it will be available live on Premier Sports 1.
Check out our Copa America Livescore page!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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