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Lille vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
by Kennedy Kechula in Champions League Predictions
In their final Champions League act of the year, French side Lille will be at home to take on their Austrian compatriots Sturm Graz. This match will be a reunion of sorts for the two teams, having met in the third tier of European football last season. Back then it was les Dogues who prevailed against the Blackies, winning 4-1 on aggregate. We have a prediction below for this latest match between the two.
In light of their good start to the campaign, Lille are only kept outside the top eight by goal difference. In the opening five matches, they’ve garnered 10 points, which is seven more than their opponents.
Sturm Graz had a false start to the competition and only managed their first win on Match Day 5. Considering their performance against Lille last season, as well as their performances against French opposition, Sturm Graz will be underdogs here. Sturm Graz are winless in five away matches against French opposition.
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The Best Betting Odds for Lille v Sturm Graz Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.48 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.2 | 6 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.59 | 6.87 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.59 | 6.87 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.4 | 6.75 |
|
|
1.51 | 4.16 | 6.65 |
|
|
1.51 | 4.16 | 6.65 |
|
|
1.51 | 4.5 | 6.8 |
|
|
1.51 | 4.16 | 6.65 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.6 | 6.8 |
|
|
1.47 | 4.5 | 7 |
|
|
1.52 | 4.5 | 6.4 |
|
|
1.44 | 4.33 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.5 | 6.9 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.33 | 6 |
|
|
1.47 | 4.25 | 7.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Lille and Sturm Graz?
Our prediction for the Lille vs Sturm Graz match is: Lille to win.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/12/2024 between Lille and Sturm Graz in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.05% for a win of Lille against Sturm Graz with odds of 1.52 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lille vs Sturm Graz is 29.07% with odds of 4.6 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 25.88% chance ⭐ for a win of Sturm Graz vs Lille with odds of 7.5 at William Hill.
Lille - Sturm Graz Prediction and Best Odds:
| Lille Sturm Graz Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lille wins | 45.05% | 1.52 at Betsson |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.16% | 1.95 at Unibet |
| Both Team To Score | 64.58% | 2.02 at Betsson |
| Half-time / Full-time : Lille/Lille | 18.36% | 2.34 at Betsson |
Lille vs Sturm Graz Form
Lille and Sturm Graz's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
|
29
|
3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 |
Lille and Sturm Graz Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2024 - Ligue 1
1 Dec 2024 - Ligue 1
27 Nov 2024 - Champions League
24 Nov 2024 - Ligue 1
10 Nov 2024 - Ligue 1
5 Nov 2024 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2024 - Ligue 1
24 Nov 2024 - Ligue 1
5 Nov 2024 - Champions League
1 Nov 2024 - Ligue 1
5 Oct 2024 - Ligue 1
2 Oct 2024 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Dec 2024 - Ligue 1
27 Nov 2024 - Champions League
10 Nov 2024 - Ligue 1
26 Oct 2024 - Ligue 1
23 Oct 2024 - Champions League
18 Oct 2024 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Dec 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
30 Nov 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
27 Nov 2024 - Champions League
23 Nov 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
9 Nov 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
5 Nov 2024 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Nov 2024 - Champions League
23 Nov 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
2 Nov 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
30 Oct 2024 - ÖFB Cup
22 Oct 2024 - Champions League
19 Oct 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Dec 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
30 Nov 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
9 Nov 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
5 Nov 2024 - Champions League
27 Oct 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
28 Sep 2024 - Austrian Bundesliga
Lille vs Sturm Graz Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Mar 2024 - Conference League
7 Mar 2024 - Conference League
Lille - Sturm Graz: Form Analysis
Sturm Graz will only be the second Austrian opponent Lille gets to face though it won’t be the first time the two meet. The other opponent from Austria that Lille met was Salzburg, and the French side won the home leg 1-0.
Coming into this game, Lille thumped Brest 3-1 in their domestic league. They will be gunning for a 15th undefeated outing in this game. In the previous 14, they managed eight wins.
The French side is also on a four-game unbeaten run in the Champions League. Those four matches yielded three wins.
Lille have eight wins in 10 home matches in Europe.
After four straight losses in the Champions League, Sturm Graz broke the bad run in the last round. They claimed a 1-0 win. At home to Girona, in one of their good recent performances.
A 3-0 win at WSG Tirol marked a fifth unbeaten outing for the visitors and they hope to step up here and add to the four wins in their last five matches. Three times in those five matches, they kept clean sheets.
Four of the five losses in Sturm Graz’s last 17 matches were in the Champions League. One of them happened in France – against Brest – and Sturm Graz will hope for a successful return.
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Lille against Sturm Graz Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 5 - 4 - 1
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2
Missing players
S. Umtiti
T. Santos
MidfielderN. Bentaleb
E. Mbappe
A. Gomes
Lille & Sturm Graz Squad Analysis
The one name that’s likely to reverberate across the stadium in this game will be that of Jonathan David. The Canadian international is once again having a good season, delivering well for Les Dogues. Over the weekend, he scored his 100th goal for Lille and has momentum to take into this game.
Ngal’ayel Mukau scored a brace in the last round and like David, he will also be confident coming into this game. He seeks to become the youngest Lille player to score in back-to-back matches in the Champions League.
Meanwhile, Lille are set to be without Samuel Umtiti, Angel Gomes, Tiago Santos, Ethan Mbappe and Nabil Bentaleb.
Jonathan David has scored a century of goals for Lille and will be a highlight here.
At Sturm Graz there’s mixed injury news. Alexander Borkovic is back from injury, but Erencan Yardimci limped off their weekend game and will likely miss this one.
Goalkeeper Kjell Scherpen had a knee surgery and remains sidelined so Daniil Khudyakov will be expected to start in goal once again.
Mika Biereth is a sure starter in attack, with the former Arsenal man netting four times in the last four matches.
Most goals and assists
Lille
Sturm Graz
J. David
(15 Goals)
M. Biereth
(13 Goals)
O. Sahraoui
(3 Assists)
, 
M. Fernandez
(3 Assists)
J. Gorenc-Stankovic
(3 Assists)
,
W. Boving Vick
(3 Assists)
,
M. Biereth
(3 Assists)
Lille - Sturm Graz Key Points
- In 13 Champions League matches, Sturm Graz won once.
- Sturm Graz lost four of their last five matches in the Champions League.
- Sturm Graz lost each of their last five away Champions League matches.
- Lille are unbeaten in four Champions League matches, winning three.
- At home in Europe, Lille have eight wins in 10 matches.
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Our Lille vs Sturm Graz Prediction
Lille will come here as the favorites and playing at home builds on to that profile. They already have an undefeated run against Sturm Graz as well as a good stretch against Austrian sides they’ve met so far.
Lille are unbeaten in the last four Champions League matches and they face a side on four defeats in five in the competition. Also, Sturm Graz aren’t the most solid of away teams. Our prediction for Lille v Sturm Graz is for Lille to win.
Lille vs Sturm Graz - Other Interesting Predictions
Jonathan David to score.
Jonathan David may have failed to score in recent Champions League matches, but overlooking him would be a bad idea. He scored two of the three goals in Lille’s 3-0 win over Sturm Graz last season.
Coming into this game, he just netted his 100th Lille goal and will be confident of adding to it on Wednesday. Our second prediction is for Jonathan David to score.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Lille Sturm Graz
| Lille vs Sturm Graz | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille wins | 1.45 | 1.48 | +2.1% |
| Draw | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0% |
| Sturm Graz wins | 6.25 | 6.5 | +4.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Lille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 69.0% and is now 67.6% (-1.4%)
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Lille vs Sturm Graz match : Frequently asked questions
The Lille v Sturm Graz match will be played on Wednesday 10 December.
The Lille v Sturm Graz match will be played at Stade Pierre Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq.
In France and Austria, this match will be aired live. Followers in France can watch the game on Canal+ while in Austria, the match will be carried by Sky Austria, Canal+ and ServusTV. Also, Sportytrader will have the match updates through the UEFA Champions League livescores handle.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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