Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield in Champions League Predictions
Lille attempt to reach the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time. They host Borussia Dortmund in the second leg of their last 16 tie after the first leg ended 1-1. Can Les Dogues get a home win? Here's our match prediction.
The winners of this tie will be up against either Barcelona or Benfica in the last eight. Barcelona host Benfica in the second leg of that tie on Tuesday after winning the away leg 1-0. Lille finished seventh in the league phase, a point and three places above their opponents. The away leg ended level with the Northmen needing to come from behind to get the draw after conceding in the first half.
Borussia Dortmund continue to struggle in the German Bundesliga but are going much better in the Champions League. After a tenth place finish in the league phase, they beat Sporting in the knockout play-off round to reach the last 16.
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The Best Betting Odds for Lille v Borussia Dortmund Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.7 | 3.3 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.75 | 3.3 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.9 | 2.37 | 2.8 |
|
|
2.69 | 3.38 | 2.76 |
|
|
2.69 | 3.38 | 2.76 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Lille and Borussia Dortmund?
Our prediction for the Lille vs Borussia Dortmund match is: over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/03/2025 between Lille and Borussia Dortmund in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.33% for a win of Lille against Borussia Dortmund with odds of 2.9 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lille vs Borussia Dortmund is 24.08% with odds of 3.38 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.58% chance ⭐ for a win of Borussia Dortmund vs Lille with odds of 2.8 at Ladbrokes.
Lille - Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Best Odds:
| Lille Borussia Dortmund Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lille wins | 45.33% | 2.9 at Ladbrokes |
| Under 2.5 | 52.06% | 1.86 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 62.5% | |
| Half-time: Borussia Dortmund / Full-time: Lille | 18.23% | 31 at Betfair |
Lille vs Borussia Dortmund Form
Lille and Borussia Dortmund Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
1 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2025 - French Cup
1 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
1 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Jan 2025 - Ligue 1
21 Jan 2025 - Champions League
14 Jan 2025 - French Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
1 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
15 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
22 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2025 - Champions League
1 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Jan 2025 - Champions League
17 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
Lille vs Borussia Dortmund Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
Lille - Borussia Dortmund: Form Analysis
Lille won five of their eight games in the league phase with two defeats. They are fifth in Ligue 1, only outside the top four on goal difference. Their most recent match saw them beat Montpellier 1-0 at home.
Les Dogues have only lost one of their last five league and cup games and that was to PSG. Home form has been strong with only two losses in their last 19 matches. Five of their last six home fixtures in the Champions League have been won, the other a 1-1 draw with Juventus.
12 of their last 14 home matches have seen over 2.5 goals scored. Their last two home Champions League fixtures have produced 12 goals.
Dortmund continue to go well in the Champions League.
Borussia Dortmund may have to win this competition to be in next season's Champions League. They lost 1-0 at Augsburg at the weekend and are now seven points behind the Champions League qualifying positions.
The Prussians were losing finalists in last season's Champions League. This season, they ended the league phase in tenth place with five wins and three defeats. The knockout play-off round saw them beat Sporting 3-0 on aggregate, all the goals coming in the away first leg.
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Players list
L. Chevalier
DefenderT. Meunier
B. Diakite
A. Ribeiro
G. Gudmundsson
MidfielderA. Gomes
B. Andre
M. Fernandez
O. Sahraoui
C. Akpom
ForwardJ. David
G. Kobel
DefenderR. Bensebaini
N. Schlotterbeck
J. Ryerson
MidfielderS. Ozcan
M. Sabitzer
E. Can
J. Gittens
C. Chukwuemeka
ForwardG. Reyna
S. Guirassy
Substitutes
M. Caillard
V. Mannone
DefenderA. Mandi
G. Gudmundsson
I. Cossier
M. Bakker
MidfielderO. Sahraoui
A. Gomes
E. Mbappe
A. Gomes
C. Akpom
M. Fernandez
R. Lisewski
A. Meyer
DefenderN. Sule
A. Kabar
Y. Couto
R. Bensebaini
S. Ozcan
C. Chukwuemeka
K. Watjen
G. Reyna
J. Duranville
J. Gittens
Missing players
S. Umtiti
T. Santos
ForwardE. Zhegrova
D. Svensson
MidfielderF. Nmecha
Lille & Borussia Dortmund Squad Analysis
Lille will have been happy to come away from the first leg with a 1-1 draw. That was especially so because they trailed 1-0 in the first half of that game. The Ligue 1 club have never got past this stage of the Champions League but have some injury problems ahead of this second leg.
Tiago Santos will miss this game due to a knee injury. Also out for the home team are Edon Zhegrova as a groin injury will see him unavailable to play.
Don't write Dortmund off.
Borussia Dortmund have been a real puzzle this season. They are struggling to qualify for Europe via their position in the Bundesliga but last season's finalists are again going well in the Champions League.
They have only won three away Bundesliga fixtures this season in 12 matches but have won the same number in just five games on the road in this competition. They won 3-0 at Sporting in the last round so won't be scared of this trip to Lille.
Felix Nmecha is unavailable due to a knee injury. Also out for the Germans is Daniel Svensson but Carney Chukwuemeka may be able to feature at some point.
Most goals and assists
Lille
Borussia Dortmund
J. David
(21 Goals)
J. David
(5 Assists)
P. Gross
(11 Assists)
Lille - Borussia Dortmund Key Points
- Five of Dortmund's last eight away games have had over 2.5 goals scored in them.
- Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 12 of the last 14 Lille home matches.
- The last two Lille home games in the Champions League have seen 12 goals scored.
- Over 2.5 goals have been scored in each of the last five Borussia Dortmund away Champions League matches.
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Our Lille vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
This Champions League tie could go both ways. It promises to be one of the most fascinating matches in the last 16 as they battle to see who will face Barcelona or Benfica in the quarter-finals.
The first leg in Germany ended 1-1 but Borussia Dortmund can't be ruled out after winning three of their five away Champions League games this season and having scored 12 goals in those matches. Our main Lille v Borussia Dortmund prediction is over 2.5.
Lille vs Borussia Dortmund - Other Interesting Predictions
Serhou Guirassy to score
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Lille Borussia Dortmund
| Lille vs Borussia Dortmund | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille wins | 2.6 | 2.7 | +3.8% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 3.3 | -8.3% |
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 2.5 | 2.63 | +5.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Lille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 38.5% and is now 37.0% (-1.4%)
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Lille vs Borussia Dortmund match : Frequently asked questions
This is the home leg for Lille in this Champions League last 16 tie. That means the match will take place at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Lille.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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