Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Milan’s Stadio Giuseppe Meazza will witness a clash of the titans on Thursday night when Italy play host to Germany in the first leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final tie. The winner of this tie between Gli Azzurri and Die Mannschaft will move on to face either Denmark or Portugal in the semis. Check out our match prediction below!
This match marks the 38th meeting between these European giants across all competitions. Italy have been the more successful side with 15 wins, while Germany have won 10, and 12 games ended level. In competitive matches - Gli Azzurri have won four times, Die Mannschaft have won twice and four games ended even - across the last 11 encounters.
Germany beat this opponent 5-2 in their last meeting, which came in this competition in 2022 - a result that marked their first victory over Gli Azzurri in regulation time in a competitive match. Let’s take a look at some more key stats at play in this one.
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The Best Betting Odds for Italy v Germany Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.7 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.75 | 3.2 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.7 | 3.25 | 2.6 |
|
|
2.78 | 3.37 | 2.79 |
|
|
2.78 | 3.37 | 2.79 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and Germany?
Our prediction for the Italy vs Germany match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 20/03/2025 between Italy and Germany in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.04% for a win of Italy against Germany with odds of 2.8 at Unibet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs Germany is 37.51% with odds of 3.37 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.45% chance ⭐ for a win of Germany vs Italy with odds of 2.79 at 1xbet.
Italy vs Germany Form
Italy and Germany Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
7 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
7 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
19 Jun 2024 - Euro
14 Jun 2024 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
23 Jun 2024 - Euro
23 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
Italy vs Germany Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
67 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
4 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2016 - International Friendlies
Italy - Germany: Form Analysis
Italy had an impressive group stage, finishing on 13 points, level with group winners France, but were forced to settle for second place owing to a worse goal difference of one.
Gli Azzurri scored 13 goals and conceded eight in their six matches. Their only defeat in the competition (W4 D1 L1) came against Les Bleus 3-1 on the final matchday in the group stage.
The hosts won all three of their away games in this competition but only managed a single victory on home soil which was against Israel. They drew 2-2 with Belgium on matchday three before the defeat to France.
Germany are unbeaten in their last six matches against Italy (W2 D4 L0)!
Meanwhile, Germany booked their spot in the quarter-final by finishing top of Group A3. They went unbeaten throughout the group stage, securing four wins and two draws in their six matches.
Die Mannschaft scored a total of 18 goals during the group stage - the most of any team across Leagues A and B - while they also maintained clean sheets in half of their matches.
The visitors' three away games in the competition brought two draws and a victory, but notably, all four goals they let in during the group stage were conceded on the road.
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Italy vs Germany last Lineups
Formation : 3 - 5 - 1 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
D. Maldini
Italy & Germany Squad Analysis
Italy will have to make do without the services of Inter Milan defender Federico Dimarco for the next two rounds due to a hamstring injury. Tottenham Hotspur’s Destiny Udogie is expected to step into the wing-back role as a result.
In midfield, Sandro Tonali will be a key figure for Gli Azzurri. The Newcastle United man is averaging 2.03 tackles, 1.2 interceptions and 4.0 possession wins in the middle third in the Premier League this season.
Deniz Undav has scored all three of his goals in this competition in away games!
The Stuttgart forward is back in the squad this week after missing the final two games of the group stage through injury. His presence could be crucial given that Leverkusen star Florian Wirtz is sidelined.
Kai Havertz and Borussia Dortmund’s Felix Nmecha are also absent from the squad through injury, which should see Jamal Musiala start on the left wing alongside Tim Kleindienst in attack.
Oliver Baumann will likely continue between the sticks in the absence of Marc-Andre ter Stegen for the visitors.
Most goals and assists
Italy
Germany
D. Frattesi
(3 Goals)
F. Wirtz
(3 Goals)
,
D. Undav
(3 Goals)
F. Dimarco
(4 Assists)
J. Musiala
(3 Assists)
,
F. Wirtz
(3 Assists)
Italy and Germany Stats in UEFA Nations League
Italy - Germany Key Points
- Five of Italy’s six matches in this competition ended with both teams scoring.
- Italy failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their three home games in the group stage.
- Germany failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their three away games in the group stage.
- Germany were the top-scorers with 18 goals in League A of this competition.
- Both teams scored in four of the last five matches between these sides in all competitions.
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Our Italy vs Germany Prediction
While Italy are well-known for their sturdy defensive play, that has not been the case in this competition, as six of the eight goals they have let in came on their home patch, including three in their last game.
Germany have failed to keep a clean sheet on the road so far in this season’s Nations League, but they have compensated with their star-studded attack that has already found the net 18 times at an average of three goals per 90. Our Italy vs Germany prediction is both teams to score.
Italy vs Germany - Other Interesting Predictions
Over 2.5
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Italy vs Germany match : Frequently asked questions
The UEFA Nations League match between Italy and Germany will be played on March 20 at 19:45 GMT.
The UEFA Nations League match between Italy and Germany will take place at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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