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Italy vs France Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
by Devesh Jaganath in UEFA Nations League Predictions
The final curtain of League A Group 2 at the UEFA Nations League will come from the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan where Italy will take on France on Sunday evening. Gli Azzurri lead the group standings with 13 points, while France are second with 10 points. Check out our match prediction below!
While it is always a headline-worthy match whenever these European powerhouses collide, this match is dead-rubber in terms of the qualification scenario. With Italy and France being nine and six points clear of third-placed Belgium, respectively, these two sides will progress to the quarter-final of this competition, regardless of the outcome of the other match from this group.
Interestingly, despite winning the reverse fixture 3-1 back in September, bookmakers have priced Italy as the underdogs on their home patch. This shows how tricky these dead-rubber matches can be to call, but let’s get into the key stats and find the best markets.
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The Best Betting Odds for Italy v France Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.3 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.62 | 2.2 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.76 | 3.52 | 2.72 |
|
|
2.76 | 3.52 | 2.72 |
|
|
2.35 | 3.1 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.75 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.66 | 3.38 | 2.62 |
|
|
2.75 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.3 | 2.88 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.44 | 3.1 | 3.15 |
|
|
2.43 | 3.18 | 3.37 |
|
|
2.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.33 | 3.05 | 3.45 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and France?
Our prediction for the Italy vs France match is: Both teams to score!
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/11/2024 between Italy and France in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.21% for a win of Italy against France with odds of 2.76 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs France is 27.51% with odds of 3.52 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.28% chance ⭐ for a win of France vs Italy with odds of 3.45 at Unibet.
Italy - France Prediction and Best Odds:
| Italy France Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 42.21% | 2.76 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.58% | 2.35 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 56.25% | 2 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time : Italy/Italy | 16.32% | 4.4 at Unibet |
Italy vs France Form
Italy and France's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
|
2
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Italy and France Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Jul 2024 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1 Jul 2024 - Euro
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Jul 2024 - Euro
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
21 Jun 2024 - Euro
17 Jun 2024 - Euro
Italy vs France Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1 Jun 2018 - International Friendlies
1 Sep 2016 - International Friendlies
Italy - France: Form Analysis
After a fairly underwhelming European Championship campaign, Italy are returning to prominence and have proven to be the best team in this tricky group at the Nations League.
Gli Azzurri put in a disciplined away performance on Thursday night, holding off Belgium for a 1-0 victory to maintain their unbeaten record in this competition and bring an end to the Red Devils’ campaign.
The hosts have drawn one and won one of their two home games in the group, and are unbeaten in their last eight on home soil across all competitions, five of which ended in victory.
Italy are the highest-scoring team in League A of the Nations League with 12 goals!
Meanwhile, France were held to a frustrating goalless home draw by Israel in midweek, in a match where they saw 71% possession and had 24 attempts on goal with eight shots on target.
However, despite dropping points, Les Bleus booked their spot in the knockout round thanks to Italy beating Belgium in the other match in the group.
The French also beat the Belgians home and away either side of a 4-1 victory over Israel in the three preceding matches, while their only defeat was against Gli Azzurri back in the opening round.
France have won both their away games in this group and are unbeaten in their last four on the road in all competitions.
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Italy against France Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 1 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Italy & France Squad Analysis
With qualification now secure, Luciano Spalletti may consider making several changes in personnel here, which could see Moise Kean brought into the starting lineup.
Italy’s injury list coming into this month’s qualifiers included Arsenal’s Riccardo Calafiori and Samuele Ricci of Torino, while Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini are long-term absentees.
Sandro Tonali scored his first international goal for Italy against Belgium last week!
France failed to find the net against Israel and seemed to lack their usual killer instinct without talisman Kylian Mbappe, who was excluded from the squad for reasons that are still unclear.
Didier Deschamps called up Kingsley Coman to replace the injured Ousmane Dembele and he will be competing with Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola for a spot in the starting 11 this week.
The players who did not travel with the squad for this month’s qualifiers due to injury include Wesley Fofana, Loic Bade, Aurelien Tchouameni and Dembele.
Most goals and assists
Italy
France
D. Frattesi
(3 Goals)
R. Kolo Muani
(3 Goals)
F. Dimarco
(4 Assists)
L. Digne
(3 Assists)
Italy - France Key Points
- Four of Italy’s five matches in this competition have ended with both teams scoring.
- Italy have scored two or more goals in four of their five Nations League qualifiers.
- Four of France’s last six games have ended with both teams scoring.
- France have scored two or more goals in both their away matches in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in each of the last four matches between these sides.
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Our Italy vs France Prediction
With both these sides’ places already booked in the quarter-final of the Nations League, we are expecting a fair amount of squad rotation to allow some of the fringe players to stake a claim for regular starting roles in the knockouts.
That could make this match a fairly open one with players vying to impress, and we feel that will translate into plenty of chances at both and a few goals as well. Therefore, our Italy vs France prediction: Both teams to score!
Italy vs France - Other Interesting Predictions
Over 2.5
Over 2.5 goals were scored in four of Italy’s five matches in this competition, while France scored six goals in their two away games in the group. Additionally, three or more goals were scored in each of the last four matches between these sides.
Use £30 free bets for the Italy vs. France game!
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Try your luck on this year's UEFA Nations League! You need to make your qualifying bet of £10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
Italy vs France match : Frequently asked questions
The UEFA Nations League match between Italy and France will be played on November 17 at 19:45 GMT.
The UEFA Nations League match between Italy and France will take place at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.
The UEFA Nations League match between Italy and France will be broadcast on ITV in the UK.
Alternatively, you can stay up to the minute with all the UEFA Nations League Livescores right here on SportyTrader!
Slavko Vincic will take charge of this match, with the assistance of Tomaz Klancnik, Andraz Kovacic and Rade Obrenovic as the fourth official.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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