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Italy vs Belgium Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
by Devesh Jaganath in UEFA Nations League Predictions
The floodlights will be beaming down on Stadio Olimpico on Thursday night when Italy play host to Belgium on matchday three of the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League. Gli Azzurri are currently leading League A Group 2 with six points, while De Rode Duivels are third with three points. Check out our match prediction below!
It is always a high-quality affair when these two European powerhouses collide, though Italy have been the more successful in recent times. In the last six encounters, Gli Azzurri have secured five victories, with the most recent being a 2-1 win in this competition back in 2021. The only win Belgium have managed against Italy in this century came in a friendly match back in November 2015.
As things stand, the hosts are the clear favourites according to the bookmakers, but with a squad bursting with talent, Belgium can never be entirely ruled out of contention, regardless of who their opponent may be. Let’s get into the key stats in this blockbuster matchup.
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The Best Betting Odds for Italy v Belgium Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.91 | 3.3 | 4.33 |
|
|
2.3 | 2.5 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.96 | 3.58 | 4.42 |
|
|
1.96 | 3.58 | 4.42 |
|
|
2 | 3.35 | 4 |
|
|
1.89 | 3.3 | 4.52 |
|
|
1.89 | 3.3 | 4.52 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.9 | 3.42 | 4.22 |
|
|
1.94 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.92 | 3.55 | 4.6 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.4 | 4 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.25 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.9 | 3.3 | 4.33 |
|
|
2 | 3.4 | 4 |
|
|
1.88 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and Belgium?
Our prediction for the Italy vs Belgium match is: Over 2.5 goals!
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/10/2024 between Italy and Belgium in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 59.26% for a win of Italy against Belgium with odds of 2.3 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs Belgium is 25.92% with odds of 3.6 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 14.82% chance ⭐ for a win of Belgium vs Italy with odds of 4.6 at Vbet.
Italy - Belgium Prediction and Best Odds:
| Italy Belgium Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 59.26% | 2.3 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.78% | 2.15 at Betobet |
| Both Team To Score | 43.75% | 2 at Betsson |
| Half-time / Full-time : Italy/Italy | 26.87% | 3.3 at Betsson |
Italy vs Belgium Form
Italy and Belgium's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
|
3
|
4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 |
Italy and Belgium Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
17 Nov 2023 - Euro
14 Oct 2023 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
21 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1 Jul 2024 - Euro
26 Jun 2024 - Euro
22 Jun 2024 - Euro
17 Jun 2024 - Euro
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
22 Jun 2024 - Euro
17 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
5 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2023 - Euro
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1 Jul 2024 - Euro
26 Jun 2024 - Euro
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
13 Oct 2023 - Euro
Italy vs Belgium Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
10 Oct 2021 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jul 2021 - Euro
Italy - Belgium: Form Analysis
Following a relatively underwhelming showing at the European Championships in the summer, Italy seem to have found something like their best form again in this competition. They have shot out to lead the group with a perfect two wins in two.
The first of those victories was arguably the most impressive, as Gli Azzurri recovered from an early goal concession to run out 3-1 winners against France. That was followed by another solid performance three days later as they clinched a 2-1 win over Israel.
Notably, both the Italian’s games in this competition were away fixtures and they now return to their home patch where they hold a very impressive record in recent times.
Italy are unbeaten in their last six home games and have won seven of their last nine (W7 D1 L1)!
Meanwhile, Belgium also got their Nations League campaign off to a solid start, beating Israel 3-1 at home. However, unlike their upcoming opponent, they were unable to overcome Les Bleus on the road, losing their second match 2-0.
With those results, Les Diables Rouges have won just two of their last six matches in all competitions and failed to score in four games during that period.
On the road, the visitors' recent record is far from ideal, with two draws and a loss in their last three. However, those results followed a five-match winning streak, a period during which they had scored 13 goals and conceded four.
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Italy against Belgium Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 1 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Italy & Belgium Squad Analysis
Luciano Spalletti has shaken things up for his side’s two matches this month by calling up six uncapped players to the national team. This includes Michele Di Gregorio, Caleb Okoli, Matteo Gabbia, Niccolo Pisilli, Daniel Maldini, and Lorenzo Lucca.
Monza's Daniel Maldini, son of Italian legend Paolo and grandson of Cesare Maldini, also makes the cut, replacing Lazio's Matteo Zaccagni on the team sheet.
There is no space in Spalletti’s squad for Federico Chiesa, who is still struggling to find full fitness.
Belgium, on the other hand, will have to make do without two stalwarts in captain Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City and newly signed Napoli striker Romelu Lukaku due to injury.
Lukaku’s teammate Cyril Ngonge has received a call-up instead and he could make his international debut if Domenico Tedesco opts to use him in the next week.
In De Bruyne’s absence, the Red Devils will look to Aston Villa midfielder Youri Tielemans to provide the creative spark from midfield, while Arsenal’s Leandro Trossard will be tasked with keeping the Italian defence on their toes.
Most goals and assists
Italy
Belgium
D. Frattesi
(3 Goals)
K. De Bruyne
(2 Goals)
F. Dimarco
(4 Assists)
L. Openda
(1 Assists)
,
J. Doku
(1 Assists)
,
L. Trossard
(1 Assists)
,
W. Faes
(1 Assists)
,
T. Castagne
(1 Assists)
Italy - Belgium Key Points
- Four of the last five matches between these sides have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Italy have scored two or more goals in each of their last three games against this opponent.
- Italy have scored two or more goals in four of their last six home matches.
- Belgium have scored two or more goals in five of their last eight away games.
- Belgium have only failed to score in one of their last five matches against this opponent.
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Our Italy vs Belgium Prediction
After a very disappointing European Championship earlier this year, Italy seem determined to do better in this competition, and so far, they have been doing an excellent job, notching up five goals over the first two matches - the second most of any team in League A.
However, Belgium are a formidable opponent themselves, and even with the likes of De Bruyne and Lukaku sidelined, they still carry more than enough attacking threat to trouble Gli Azzurri and find the net. Our Italy vs Belgium prediction: Over 2.5 goals!
Italy vs Belgium - Other Interesting Predictions
Italy wins
While Italy’s form of late has been patchy, they have been very tough to overcome at home. The hosts are unbeaten in their last six matches on home soil and have won seven of their last nine. Additionally, Gli Azzurri have won five of the last six matches between these sides.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Italy Belgium
| Italy vs Belgium | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 2.25 | 1.91 | -15.1% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.3 | +1.5% |
| Belgium wins | 3.2 | 4.33 | +35.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Italy is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 15.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 44.4% and is now 52.4% (7.9%)
2 Goals Ahead Early Payout
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Italy vs Belgium match : Frequently asked questions
The Nations League match between UEFA Italy and Belgium will be played on October 10 at 19:45 GMT.
The UEFA Nations League match between Italy and Belgium will take place at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.
The UEFA Nations League match between Italy and Belgium will be broadcast live on ITV in the UK.
Alternatively, you can stay up to the minute with all the UEFA Nations League Livescores right here on SportyTrader!
Espen Eskas will take charge of this match, with the assistance of Jan Engen, Isaak Bashevkin and Mohammad Aslam as the fourth official.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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