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Iceland vs Wales Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
by Steve Ashfield in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Wales are second in this Nations League group and travel to third-placed Iceland on Friday. This is in League B and Wales are only being kept off top spot on goal difference by Turkey who they drew 0-0 at home with in their opening match. Wales missed out on the Euros in the summer after losing the play-off final against Poland. Let's get into the match prediction.
The Dragons have played in League B in all the Nations League tournaments bar the last one. After winning promotion in 2020/21, they were relegated from League A in the 2022/23 tournament, losing all of the three away matches they played.
Iceland are hoping to win promotion back to League A after being relegated in 2020/21 and as you'll read later in this preview, they had an appalling record. 'Our Boys' have a strong home record and will hope to get another win here and move into the top two in the group.
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The Best Betting Odds for Iceland v Wales Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.2 | 3.2 | 2.35 |
|
|
3.2 | 2.37 | 2.75 |
|
|
2.96 | 3.36 | 2.64 |
|
|
2.96 | 3.36 | 2.64 |
|
|
3.15 | 3.1 | 2.45 |
|
|
3.06 | 3.24 | 2.39 |
|
|
3.06 | 3.24 | 2.39 |
|
|
3.05 | 3.2 | 2.39 |
|
|
2.86 | 3.22 | 2.54 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
|
|
3 | 3 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
|
|
3.18 | 3.17 | 2.47 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.05 | 3.15 | 2.45 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Iceland and Wales?
Our prediction for the Iceland vs Wales match is: Under 2.5 goals to be scored.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/10/2024 between Iceland and Wales in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.68% for a win of Iceland against Wales with odds of 3.25 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Iceland vs Wales is 27.2% with odds of 3.36 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.11% chance ⭐ for a win of Wales vs Iceland with odds of 2.75 at Ladbrokes.
Iceland - Wales Prediction and Best Odds:
| Iceland Wales Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Iceland wins | 36.68% | 3.25 at Betsson |
| Under 2.5 | 61.28% | 2.25 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 33.33% | 2 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Iceland | 18.01% | 7 at Betsson |
Iceland vs Wales Form
Iceland and Wales's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
|
3
|
7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 |
Iceland and Wales Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - Euro
21 Mar 2024 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Oct 2023 - Euro
13 Oct 2023 - Euro
11 Sep 2023 - Euro
20 Jun 2023 - Euro
17 Jun 2023 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - Euro
21 Mar 2024 - Euro
17 Jan 2024 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - Euro
21 Mar 2024 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
26 Mar 2024 - Euro
21 Mar 2024 - Euro
21 Nov 2023 - Euro
15 Oct 2023 - Euro
11 Oct 2023 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2023 - Euro
11 Sep 2023 - Euro
19 Jun 2023 - Euro
Iceland - Wales: Form Analysis
Wales are in the promotion play-off position after their first two matches in this Nations League group. They were held to a goalless draw at home by Turkey but then had a 2-1 win in Montenegro. Their two goals in that match came in the first three minutes of the game.
That quickfire start ended a run of four games without a win for Wales in which they had failed to score a goal. After this match, they host Montenegro on October 14 and will be hoping for at least four points from these two group matches.
Iceland have finally won a Nations League match!
Iceland lost every game they played in the first two Nations League tournaments with four goals scored and 30 conceded in their League A matches. They drew all four of their matches in League B in the last tournament.
The Icelandic side opened this group with a 2-0 home win over Montenegro, ending that run of 14 matches without a win. Then they went to Turkey and lost that match 3-1. They are unbeaten in their last four home games.
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Iceland against Wales Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 5 - 3 - 2
Iceland & Wales Squad Analysis
Sverrir Ingi Ingason may make his return to the starting line-up for Iceland. He was absent from their last squad due to injury but the Panathinaikos defender is back fit now and in contention to play as centre-back.
Also in with a chance of starting are Willum Thor Willumsson and Alfons Sampsted who both play in League One for English side Birmingham City. Johann Berg Gudmundsson will again be captain and, if playing, will be earning his 96th cap for Iceland.
Brennan Johnson is in great scoring form.
Wales will be looking for Brennan Johnson to repeat his club form in international football. The Tottenham player has scored six goals in his last six matches for the English Premier League side.
Joe Allen has come out of international retirement and could start this match against Iceland. Rhys Norrington-Davies is also back in the Welsh squad after an absence of two years due to injury.
Also returning to the squad are David Brooks, Wes Burns and Nathan Broadhead. On the down side, they will be without both Ethan Ampadu and Aaron Ramsey for this match and the next at home to Montenegro.
Most goals and assists
Iceland
Wales
O. Oskarsson
(3 Goals)
H. Wilson
(4 Goals)
J. Gudmundsson
(2 Assists)
N. Williams
(2 Assists)
,
L. Cullen
(2 Assists)
Iceland - Wales Key Points
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in four of the last five Iceland home matches.
- Five of the last nine Iceland matches have seen under 2.5 goals scored in them.
- Three of the last five Welsh matches have ended in goalless draws.
- Wales have only scored in one of their last five matches but only conceded more than two goals in one of their last 13.
- Under 2.5 goals have been scored in four of Iceland's last five home matches.
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Our Iceland vs Wales Prediction
Iceland will be all-out to win this home match against Wales. They finally got a Nations League win when beating Montenegro at home but couldn't build on that and were beaten away in Turkey in their next game. Winning this game will take them into the top two.
Wales ended a poor run of form with a win in Montenegro in their most recent Nations League match, ending a run of four games without a goal. At least a draw here will boost their chances of making at least the play-offs. A tight match looks likely and our main Iceland v Wales prediction is under 2.5 goals to be scored.
Iceland vs Wales - Other Interesting Predictions
Draw
Five of the last eight matches played by Wales have ended in a draw. Iceland drew all of their Nations League matches in the last tournament.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Iceland Wales
| Iceland vs Wales | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland wins | 2.9 | 3.2 | +10.3% |
| Draw | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0% |
| Wales wins | 2.45 | 2.35 | -4.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Iceland is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 10.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 34.5% and is now 31.3% (-3.2%)
Use £30 free bets for the Iceland vs. Wales game!
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Try your luck on this year's UEFA Nations League! You need to make your qualifying bet of £10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
Iceland vs Wales match : Frequently asked questions
This Nations League match between Iceland and Wales is being shown live on BBC iPlayer, S4C and S4C online. You can also follow the action in this match on our Nations League livescore with live text commentary and updated statistics.
This is a home match for Iceland and will be played at Laugardalsvollur in Reykjavik.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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