Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar in Bundesliga Predictions
A Northern derby between two relegation-threatened sides will play out in Bundesliga matchday 29 as Holstein Kiel welcome St. Pauli on Saturday. This match at Holstein-Stadion between the basement club Die Storche and the 15th-placed Kiezkicker comes with our prediction of over 2.5 goals.
Holstein’s 18 points put them rooted to the bottom of the points tally, eight points adrift of automatic safety. That position is held by St. Pauli, whose 26 points give them a four-point advantage over the relegation zone.
Holstein held Mainz to a 1-1 away draw in the last matchday for their fifth point in five league matches. They remain a dreadful defensive side, as no team has conceded more than their 68 goals.
The challenge is to improve their home form, as they have two draws and losses each in their last four league matches here.
That gives last season’s second division champions St. Pauli a chance to replicate their 3-1 win from the reverse fixture. The visitors are coming off a 1-1 home draw against Monchengladbach last weekend. That result meant they could win just one of their last nine Bundesliga fixtures.
This sequence has also hurt them on the road, as St Pauli were beaten in three of their last four away league matches.
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The Best Betting Odds for Holstein Kiel v St. Pauli Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.3 | 3.4 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.25 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
|
|
3.45 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.29 | 3.6 | 2.31 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli?
Our prediction for the Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli match is: over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/04/2025 between Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 34.53% for a win of Holstein Kiel against St. Pauli with odds of 3.56 at Vbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli is 23.99% with odds of 3.6 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.48% chance ⭐ for a win of St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel with odds of 2.5 at Ladbrokes.
Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli Prediction and Best Odds:
| Holstein Kiel St. Pauli Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 41.48% | 2.5 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.13% | 2.01 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 56.25% | 1.75 at William Hill |
| Half-time / Full-time: St. Pauli/St. Pauli | 19.94% | 3.75 at Betfair |
Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli Form
Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15
|
29 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -10 |
|
18
|
18 | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -30 |
Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
16 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
9 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
16 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
16 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
26 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
9 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
23 Feb 2024 - 2nd Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel against St. Pauli Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Missing players
C. Kleine-Bekel
I. Nekic
MidfielderP. Erras
A. Kelati
L. Holtby
ForwardB. Pichler
K. Mets
MidfielderJ. Sands
ForwardS. Zoller
Most goals and assists
Holstein Kiel
St. Pauli
S. Machino
(8 Goals)
, 
P. Harres
(8 Goals)
F. Porath
(4 Assists)
J. Irvine
(5 Assists)
Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli Key Points
- Holstein Kiel’s matches average 3.82 goals per match this season and only Bayern have averaged higher.
- In six of Holstein’s last seven home league matches, at least three goals were scored.
- St. Pauli conceded at least two goals in three of their last four away league matches.
- The last four league matches over Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga between these sides produced at least six goals.
- That includes a 3-1 win for St. Pauli in the reverse fixture.
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Our Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli Prediction
Both promoted sides Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli need a win here to stay in the race to achieve Bundesliga safety. Last year’s second division champions St. Pauli have scored the fewest goals (23) in this year’s Bundesliga, but they have struggled in recent league trips. Holstein have conceded the most goals (68) in this year’s campaign, and their matches have usually been full of action. Even the reverse fixture was full of goals, and our Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli prediction is over 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Holstein Kiel St. Pauli
| Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel wins | 2.7 | 3.3 | +22.2% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 3.4 | -2.9% |
| St. Pauli wins | 2.4 | 2.15 | -10.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- St. Pauli is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 10.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 41.7% and is now 46.5% (4.8%)
Get up to £30 to bet on the Holstein Kiel vs. St. Pauli game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on Bundesliga!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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