Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Devesh Jaganath in UEFA Nations League Predictions
A dynamite duel in Dortmund is set to wrap up this weekend’s UEFA Nations League quarter-final second-leg action, with Germany hosting Italy at Signal Iduna Park on Sunday evening. The winner of this tie between Die Mannschaft and Gli Azzurri will move on to face either Denmark or Portugal in the last four. Check out our match prediction below!
Germany are a goal to the good in this tie, having won the first leg in Milan 2-1 on Thursday night. It was a heated affair with a total of 34 fouls awarded, but Germany came out on top to record their 11th win in 38 matches against this opponent. Gli Azzurri are still the more successful side in the contest though with 15 wins, while 12 games have ended in a draw.
A look at the latest betting odds shows that bookmakers are firmly in the corner of the hosts to get the job done in this match - let’s take a look at the key stats.
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The Best Betting Odds for Germany v Italy Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.73 | 3.9 | 4.33 |
|
|
1.8 | 3.75 | 4.5 |
|
|
2.05 | 2.6 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.79 | 4.03 | 4.79 |
|
|
1.79 | 4.03 | 4.79 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Germany and Italy?
Our prediction for the Germany vs Italy match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/03/2025 between Germany and Italy in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 61.93% for a win of Germany against Italy with odds of 2.05 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Germany vs Italy is 16.93% with odds of 4.03 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.14% chance ⭐ for a win of Italy vs Germany with odds of 4.79 at 1xbet.
Germany vs Italy Form
Germany and Italy Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
7 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
19 Jun 2024 - Euro
14 Jun 2024 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
23 Jun 2024 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
Germany vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
4 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2016 - International Friendlies
Germany - Italy: Form Analysis
After an underwhelming start to the first leg and conceding inside the opening 10 minutes of the match, Germany were by far the better team in the second half as they turned the tide to come out 2-1 winners.
That result meant that Die Mannschaft are still unbeaten in this competition with five wins and two draws in seven games, while it took their goal tally to 20 - more than any other side in League A.
The hosts will now return to their home patch where they have been flawless in this competition, having won each of their three games to date while scoring a whopping 13 goals in that period.
Germany have yet to concede on home soil in the Nations League this season!
Meanwhile, Italy will be disappointed not to have come away with anything from the first leg, as they were the more attacking side but ran into an inspired Oliver Baumann in the German goal.
Gli Azzurri have now lost back-to-back games, having also gone down to France in their final group-stage match. They have a record of four wins, one draw and two defeats in the competition to date.
However, the visitors cannot be written off just yet, as they won all three of their away games during the group stage, scoring six goals while conceding just two.
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Germany vs Italy last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Germany & Italy Squad Analysis
As mentioned, Oliver Baumann was in sensational form in the first leg and made five crucial saves, while his parries of the line were unquestionably highlight-reel worthy.
Julian Nagelsmann made a bold call at halftime to replace Jonathan Burkardt with Tim Kleindienst. However, he was rewarded for his bravery with the Monchengladbach striker scoring the equaliser just four minutes after coming on.
As a result, Kleindienst has now scored three goals in his last three appearances for Die Mannschaft and he is likely to get the nod to start in attack this weekend.
Joshua Kimmich provided the assists for both Germany’s goals in the first leg!
In our preview of the first leg, we picked out Sandro Tonali as a key figure for Italy, and the Newcastle United midfielder was undoubtedly the best player on the pitch in blue.
Giacomo Raspadori had a fairly quiet outing, managing only a single shot on target, while losing possession eight times. Luciano Spalletti may therefore be tempted to hand Daniel Maldini a start in this one.
Arsenal defender Riccardo Calafiori limped off with a knock in stoppage time in the first leg and is a doubt for this weekend.
Most goals and assists
Germany
Italy
F. Wirtz
(3 Goals)
,
D. Undav
(3 Goals)
,
T. Kleindienst
(3 Goals)
D. Frattesi
(3 Goals)
J. Musiala
(3 Assists)
,
F. Wirtz
(3 Assists)
,
J. Kimmich
(3 Assists)
F. Dimarco
(4 Assists)
Germany and Italy Stats in UEFA Nations League
Germany - Italy Key Points
- Four of Germany's last six Nations League games have ended with both teams scoring
- Germany have scored 13 goals in their three home games in this competition.
- Six of Italy’s seven Nations League games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Italy have scored in all three away games in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in five of the last six matches between these teams.
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Our Germany vs Italy Prediction
While Italy ultimately came out on the wrong side of the 2-1 scoreline last week, they carried plenty of attacking threat and would likely have netted a few more had it not been for the heroics of Oliver Baumann.
As a result, Gli Azzurri will feel that they are certainly in with a shot of levelling matters in this one, but they have to be wary of the German attack, which has been devastating on their home patch in this competition. Our Germany vs Italy prediction is both teams to score.
Germany vs Italy - Other Interesting Predictions
Germany wins the match
Germany are unbeaten in their seven Nations League games and won all three at home while scoring 13 goals. Die Mannschaft have also avoided defeat in their last seven matches against this opponent and won the last two encounters.
Get up to £30 to bet on the Germany vs. Italy game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Germany and Italy when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on UEFA Nations League!
Germany vs Italy match : Frequently asked questions
The UEFA Nations League match between Germany and Italy will be played on March 23 at 19:45 GMT.
The UEFA Nations League match between Germany and Italy will take place at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund.
The UEFA Nations League match between Germany and Italy will be broadcast on Prime Video in the UK. German viewers can tune in to DAZN for live coverage, while RAI Play will televise the match for viewers in Italy.
Alternatively, you can stay up to date with every minute of the action using our UEFA Nations League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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