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France vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
by Ian John | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
France host Italy in Nations League Group A2 on Friday evening. Les Bleus came into this tournament after winning it in 2021 and finishing as World Cup runners-up in 2022 and semi-finalists in Euro 2024 in the summer. Their opponents, The Azzuri, were disappointing in the summer, losing in the Round of 16 2-0 to Switzerland. Will our prediction tip Italy to get back on track against France in this match?
Didier Deschamps will feel his French side didn't perform to their usual high standards at the Euros. France's most successful manager will see this tournament as a key bridge to the upcoming World Cup Qualifiers, but he will certainly expect his team to top their group. A win against Italy, therefore, is important with fixtures against Belgium and Israel, and the away leg in Italy still to come.
Luciano Spalletti will be feeling the pressure as Italy's head coach. The team's poor performance at the Euros was different from what fans expected. It is fair to say the current Italian national squad isn't a match for previous golden generations, but they are always well-organized, disciplined, and tough to beat. Will that be enough against a supremely talented France, though?
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The Best Betting Odds for France v Italy Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.6 | 3.9 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.91 | 2.6 | 5 |
|
|
1.62 | 3.99 | 6.1 |
|
|
1.62 | 3.99 | 6.1 |
|
|
1.64 | 3.8 | 5.25 |
|
|
1.58 | 3.8 | 6.2 |
|
|
1.58 | 3.8 | 6.2 |
|
|
1.58 | 4.1 | 6.2 |
|
|
1.63 | 3.88 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.67 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
|
|
1.6 | 3.75 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.61 | 4.2 | 5.2 |
|
|
1.53 | 3.75 | 6 |
|
|
1.62 | 4 | 6 |
|
|
1.63 | 3.6 | 5.25 |
|
|
1.63 | 4.1 | 6.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between France and Italy?
Our prediction for the France vs Italy match is: France to win and both teams to score - No.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/09/2024 between France and Italy in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.39% for a win of France against Italy with odds of 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between France vs Italy is 30.18% with odds of 4.2 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.43% chance ⭐ for a win of Italy vs France with odds of 6.2 at Betwinner.
France - Italy Prediction and Best Odds:
| France Italy Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| France wins | 51.39% | 1.91 at Ladbrokes |
| Under 2.5 | 56.52% | 1.98 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 47.92% | 2.1 at Betway |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: France | 27.41% | 4.6 at Vbet |
France vs Italy Form
France and Italy's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
|
2
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
France and Italy Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jul 2024 - Euro
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
1 Jul 2024 - Euro
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
21 Jun 2024 - Euro
17 Jun 2024 - Euro
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jul 2024 - Euro
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
5 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jul 2024 - Euro
5 Jul 2024 - Euro
21 Jun 2024 - Euro
17 Jun 2024 - Euro
21 Nov 2023 - Euro
13 Oct 2023 - Euro
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
17 Nov 2023 - Euro
14 Oct 2023 - Euro
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Jun 2024 - Euro
24 Jun 2024 - Euro
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
21 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
20 Nov 2023 - Euro
17 Oct 2023 - Euro
France vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Jun 2018 - International Friendlies
1 Sep 2016 - International Friendlies
France - Italy: Form Analysis
France had been on an eight-game unbeaten run before losing their last fixture 2-1 to Spain in the Euro 2024 semi-finals. That sounds impressive, but the French really struggled for goals over that time. They scored just nine goals in those nine fixtures, six of those coming in the first two games of that run.
More positive is their recent record against Italy:
France has won all the last three between the two teams.
In truth, Italy was very much second-best in all three matches, losing two 3-1 and another 2-1. Two of those defeats came on Italian soil. Extend that run back to 1982, and Italy has beaten France just once without the aid of penalties and just twice, including penalty shoot-out victories.
The head-to-head record between the two countries is intriguing. While Italy had a long period of dominance, the early 1980s saw a shift in favor of France, and they have maintained their superiority since.
Italy still hold the upper hand in the fixture with 18 wins compared to 11 for France with eight games drawn.
Italy's recent performances have not been without their challenges. A hard-fought 2-1 win over Albania was followed by a 1-0 loss to Spain and a fortunate 1-1 draw with Croatia. The latter game saw Italy reach the knockout phase due to a very late equalizer, but they were then knocked out of Euro 2024 by Switzerland, who won 2-0.
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France against Italy Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 1 - 1
Missing players
B. Pavard
W. Fofana
ForwardK. Coman
N. Barella
France & Italy Squad Analysis
France come into this fixture with Didier Deschamps having made some notable alterations to the squad that competed in the Euros this summer. Striker Olivier Giroud has retired from international football, Aurelien Tchouameni is injured, Adrian Rabiot is yet to find a club after being released as a free agent, while Eduardo Camavinga has not been selected for this game.
Defenders Ferland Mendy and Wes Fofana are both injured too.
New Bayern Munich signing Michael Olise and midfielder Manu Kone of Roma have been called up to the squad and could earn their first caps for France. So could Sevilla defender Loic Bade, who starred for Thierry Henry's French Olympic team in the summer.
Kylian Mbappe continues in his role as captain and will hope to add to his 48 international goals in this game, achieved in just 84 caps for his country.
Without a win in their previous three games, Italian head coach Luciani Spalletti has named a very young squad for this fixture. Only Napoli defender Giovanni Di Lorenzo (31) is aged over 30 in the entire squad.
Only six players in the Italy squad have 20 or more caps.
Newcastle midfielder Sandro Tonali has been recalled to the squad following the end of his suspension, while Leicester defender Caleb Okoli and Atalanta midfielder Marco Brescianini could earn their first full caps.
Defenders Francesco Acerbi and Giorgio Scalvini miss the game through injury. Others overlooked include new Liverpool signing Federico Chiesa, midfielder Nicolo Barella and Atalanta striker Gianluca Scamacca.
Most goals and assists
France
Italy
R. Kolo Muani
(3 Goals)
D. Frattesi
(3 Goals)
L. Digne
(3 Assists)
F. Dimarco
(4 Assists)
France - Italy Key Points
- Outside of their home nation, Italy have scored just three goals in their last five away games.
- France have conceded just three goals in the last eight matches.
- France have kept six clean sheets in their past eight matches.
- Italy have scored just four goals in their last six games, half of those coming against Albania.
- France have won all the last three and nine of the last 13 games against Italy.
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Our France vs Italy Prediction
Our main prediction for France vs. Italy in Group A2 of the Nations League is: France to win and both teams to score - No.
Didier Deschamps' France team has struggled for goals since hitting Gibraltar for 14 back in November 2023 (12 goals in 11 games). However, defensively, they have been superb. Against an Italian team that has lost all the last three against France, is also struggling for goals, and whose own form is poor, a France win to nil is strongly supported in the data. Especially with the French team playing on home soil.
France vs Italy - Other Interesting Predictions
Kylian Mbappe (France) to score at anytime.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis France Italy
| France vs Italy | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| France wins | 1.65 | 1.6 | -3.0% |
| Draw | 4 | 3.9 | -2.5% |
| Italy wins | 5 | 5.75 | +15.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- France is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 3.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 60.6% and is now 62.5% (1.9%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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