MLS Predictions & Betting tips
Find our free MLS prediction on the overall standings, as well as our expert predictions on all Major League Soccer matches (2024). Lots of information for your sports betting!
MLS presentation - Soccer
Major League Soccer is the football championship of the United States. Each season, the best American franchises compete for the MLS Cup, the trophy awarded to the team that successfully navigates the MLS Cup Playoffs at the end of the season. The MLS is a championship that has been evolving more and more in recent years. Football, or 'soccer' as it is known over there, was clearly not one of the first sports to be played and watched in the United States just a few years ago. However, that’s no longer the case as the quality of play in the MLS has rapidly improved in the last handful of seasons.
Thanks to the recruitment of a number of talented youngsters (particularly from South America), as well as the ability to draw some of the world’s most recognizable names, Major League Soccer is fast becoming must-see TV for football enthusiasts around the world. Naturally, this has also led to an explosion in betting popularity on the league which doesn’t look like slowing down any time soon.
Many of football’s royalty have opted to end their careers in the States over the years including: David Beckham, David Villa, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Steven Gerrard, Kaka, Pirlo, Thierry Henry and Gareth Bale. More recently, however, the MLS has benefitted from smart recruitment of young talent, as we mentioned earlier. Players such as Thiago Almada, Facundo Torres, Cucho Hernandez, Pedro de la Vega and Talles Magno are all players that opted for a move to the MLS and have as such seen their transfer value significantly increase.
Along with the young talent, there are also a number of football’s most famous names, none bigger than Inter Miami’s Lionel Messi. Messi’s arrival is a huge boon to the league and will attract more attention than ever. He’s joined by Luis Suarez, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets as the ex-Barcelona players look to win Inter Miami (the club founded by David Beckham) its first ever MLS Cup.
Want to bet on the US league? Here are our MLS predictions for the long term. For the matches, go to the top of the page.
Check out the MLS odds at Bet365
Our free predictions for the 2024 season
With a few surprise upsets in the round of 16, we now enter the MLS Cup quarter-finals with the trophy up for grabs.
For our money, we’re opting to go with the LA Galaxy at this stage. There’s still good value to be had at the current odds and the Galaxy have a few underlying statistics backing up their claim as the team that could lift the cup.
They possess a deadly attacking quartet of Paintsil, Gabriel Pec, Joveljic and Riqui Puig, who were responsible for the Galaxy finishing the regular season with the highest expected goals total in the entire MLS (63.8 xG). They also finished third in goals scored at 69 and are coming off an emphatic 9-1 aggregate win over Colorado in the round of 16.
They’re favorites to get the win over Minnesota, while LAFC could be in a very tricky matchup against the league’s best defense in the Seattle Sounders in their quarter-final matchup.
Therefore the LA Galaxy is our selection to win the 2024 MLS Cup! Do you agree? Do you have another prediction in mind? Place your bets!
MLS Cup prediction - Odds on the favourites for the title
Sports betting sites are offering you some very interesting odds on the future winner of the 2024 MLS Cup, the football championship in the United States. If you've already made your choice, don't hesitate to lock in your bet! Below are the most recent odds for some of the top contenders to lift the cup:
- LA Galaxy - 2.37
- Orlando City - 2.75
- Seattle Sounders - 5.50
- New York Red Bulls - 6.00
Odds taken from Bet365
You can check out all of the latest MLS odds by heading over to our MLS Betting Odds page.
MLS Top Scorer: Who won the golden boot?
Former Aston Villa and Liverpool striker Christian Benteke was a different class in the 2024 MLS regular season. After notching 14 goals in his first full season in Major League Soccer, the powerful Belgian number nine followed that up by scoring 23 goals in 29 league games so far for DC United. With the next highest amount coming in at 19 (Juan Hernandez and Denis Bouanga), Benteke has all but guaranteed himself the golden boot barring some last day insanity.
Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez both impressed this season as well, lifting Inter Miami to the Supporters' Shield. Unfortunately for both of them, missing out on a number of games throughout the season made it tough to keep up with Benteke's scoring consistency. Messi scored 20 goals in 19 league fixtures while also adding in 16 assists, making him the frontrunner for the MVP award. Suarez also bagged himself 20 goals in 27 league fixtures, while last season's top scorer Denis Bouanga scored 20 goals for a second straight year.
MLS regular season top scorers:
- Christian Benteke (DC United) - 23 goals
- Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) - 20 goals
- Luis Suarez (Inter Miami) - 20 goals
- Denis Bouanga (LAFC) - 20 goals
- Cucho Hernandez (Columbus) - 19 goals
- Daniel Gazdag (Philadelphia) - 17 goals
- Cristian Arango (Real Salt Lake) - 17 goals
MLS: discover the best odds at VBET!
MLS Regular Season: Which team's finished top?
With 34 matches in the books, the MLS regular season has come to a close and the MLS Cup Playoffs are set to begin! Wondering how each team fared and which teams will be participating in the postseason? We've got the answers for you below.
Inter Miami, the preseason betting favorites, had a fantastic year. Behind the star power of Messi, Suarez, Busquets and Alba, the Herons would go on to claim the 2024 Supporters' Shield, the trophy awarded to the team with the most points in the regular season. Below we've laid out the eight playoff qualifying teams from the Eastern Conference along with their points total:
Eastern Conference standings
- Inter Miami: 74 points (MLS regular season record)
- Columbus Crew: 66 points
- FC Cincinnati: 59 points
- Orlando City: 52 points
- Charlotte FC: 51 points
- NYCFC: 50 points
- New York Red Bulls: 47 points
- Atlanta United: 40 points (beat Montreal in Wild Card match)
In the Western Conference, 2024 saw the resurgence of one of the Major League Soccer's most successful teams as the LA Galaxy battled until the final day for the top seed. However, their in-city rivals and 2022 MLS Cup winners LAFC eventually caught up to the Galaxy and overtook them on the final day thanks to a superior goal differential. Below are the eight Western Conference playoff qualifying teams:
Western Conference standings
- LAFC: 64 points (+20 goal differential)
- LA Galaxy: 64 points (+19 goal differential)
- Real Salt Lake: 59 points
- Seattle Sounders: 57 points
- Houston Dynamo: 54 points
- Minnesota United: 52 points
- Colorado Rapids: 50 points
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 47 points (beat Portland in Wild Card match)
MLS Cup Playoffs: Semi-Final Predictions
Below you'll find the schedule for the final four teams remaining in the MLS Cup Playoffs (all times GMT timezone):
Eastern Conference
- Orlando City vs New York Red Bulls: 1 December, 12:30 AM
Western Conference
- LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders: 1 December, 3:00 AM
Orlando City benefited from Inter Miami's shock elimination and had one of the easier paths to the MLS Cup Final. They came through against Atlanta United and we expect them to do the same against the Red Bulls. In the Western Conference, the Galaxy are looking irresistible at the moment. They were one of the top scoring teams in the regular season and they've carried that over into the playoffs. Los Angeles put six past Minnesota in the quarters to go along with their nine goals scored in two legs against Colorado in the first round. Seattle have one of the best defenses in the MLS but could struggle to slow down the red-hot Galaxy.
MLS Cup Playoffs: Quarter-Final Recap
A highly-entertaining quarter-final in the MLS Cup is in the books! Below you'll find the results from the four games and which teams advance to the final four:
Eastern Conference
- Orlando City vs Atlanta United - Orlando City wins 1-0
- NYCFC vs New York Red Bulls - New York Red Bulls win 2-0
Western Conference
- LAFC vs Seattle Sounders - Seattle wins 2-1 after extra time
- LA Galaxy Minnesota United - LA Galaxy win 6-2
Orlando were expected to get the win over Atlanta United and were able to hold on after a Ramiro Enrique first half goal. They'll match up with NYRB in the semis after the Red Bulls pulled off the underdog victory over their local rivals at Citi Field.
In the West, Seattle pulled off a sensational 2-1 extra time victory over the former title favorites LAFC. The Sounders will now enter the semi-finals as one of the hottest teams in the league after turning things around following a dismal start to the season.
The Galaxy might be the most in-form team remaining in the MLS Cup Playoffs after putting up six goals against Minnesota United in the quarter-finals. They've now scored 15 goals in their three postseason games.
MLS Cup Playoffs: Round 1 Preview
The regular season is complete and we're into the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs! 16 teams will compete for the opportunity to become the 29th champion of the USA's top flight football league. Among them: Inter Miami's star-studded squad, defending champions Columbus Crew and the two Los Angeles clubs.
Below you'll see the matchups for the first round of the MLS postseason. Remember, the first round plays out in a best-of-three series, meaning the first team to win two games advances to the Conference semi-finals. After the first round is complete, the structure returns to a standard single match structure.
Eastern Conference
- Inter Miami vs Atlanta United - Game 1: Inter Miami wins 2-1 / Game 2: November 2
- Orlando City vs Charlotte - Game 1: Orlando City wins 2-0 / Game 2: November 1
- FC Cincinnati vs NYCFC - Game 1: Cincinnati wins 1-0 / Game 2: November 2
- Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls - Game 1: October 29 / Game 2: November 3
Western Conference
- LAFC vs Vancouver - Game 1: LAFC wins 2-1 / Game 2: November 3
- Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo - Game 1: Seattle Sounders wins 0-0 (5-4 penalties) / Game 2: November 3
- Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United - Game 1: October 29 / Game 2: November 2
- LA Galaxy vs Colorado Rapids - Game 1: LA Galaxy wins 5-0 / Game 2: November 1
Starting in the Eastern Conference, Supporters' Shield winners Inter Miami have been the most consistent and impressive team in the regular season and should have too much firepower for Atlanta to contend with. After a rough start, Orlando City ended the season very strongly and should get the better of fifth-seed Charlotte.
Cincinnati, while not quite reaching the heights of last year's Supporters' Shield winning campaign, put together a solid season and are good value to beat a struggling NYCFC team that managed only three wins from their final 13 regular season matches. Defending champions Columbus Crew should be able to get by seventh-seed NYRB as they seek to become the first back-to-back winners since the 2012 LA Galaxy.
In the West, LAFC should take the momentum gained from earning the top seed on the final matchday into a first round victory over Vancouver. Seattle finished the regular season as one of the league's best teams after a horrendous start and are a team to watch out for. Real Salt Lake were one of the surprise teams this year and are the better side in this matchup against Minnesota. Finally, LA Galaxy's return to prominence in the West should continue into the postseason as they should cruise by Colorado.
Beginner sports bettors - how does MLS work?
As with most American competitions, and in particular the highly reputed NBA, Major League Soccer is played first in the form of a regular season (two conferences), before a play-off at the end of the tournament. The distribution of teams is slightly different between the two conferences, with 15 teams in the Eastern Conference and 14 teams in the Western Conference. This will only be for one more season though, as the newest MLS franchise San Diego FC officially enters the Western Conference in 2025.
The Major League Soccer finals are played out as follows: the top 7 teams in each conference qualify for the 1st round of the Playoffs. The 8th and 9th-placed teams play a play-off match to reach this stage.
In the 1st round, the teams play each other over two legs. In the event of a draw, there is no extra time, but a penalty shoot-out is held to decide between the teams. From the conference semi-finals onwards, the duels are played over a single match, with the team with the higher ranking receiving the match. In the event of a tie at the end of regulation time, extra time is played, followed by a penalty shoot-out if the teams have still not managed to settle the tie at the end of extra time. At the end of the competition, the final between the champions of the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference is held, to crown the champion team of the United States.
At the end of the regular phase, here are the places that matter:
- The top 7 in each conference qualify for the 1st round of the finals
- The 8th and 9th teams in each conference play off for a place in the 1st round of the play-offs.
- No relegation system, so no relegation to a lower league (closed league)
To bet on the highly-exciting MLS in 2024, visit Bet365, one of the best sites for Major League Soccer betting. Sign up via this link and enjoy a nice bonus!
Check out the MLS markets at William Hill
Expert advice for your MLS predictions
To help you bet on this exciting league, we’ve compiled a few tips to help you out. Our competition specialists have selected the most important criteria to take into account before validating your betting slips. They will undoubtedly help you place more reliable bets:
- Observe the form of key players
- Beware of low-stakes matches in the United States
- Analyse the latest Major League Soccer matches
- Take the time to compare MLS odds between bookmakers
The figures and statistics that will be revealed to you below are of great importance, but obviously do not do everything to make the right MLS bets. You also need to be aware of all the parameters you need to take into account. Here are the most important ones in our opinion.
Observe the form of key MLS players
Firstly, and probably most importantly, it is necessary to analyse the form of the key players who are preparing to play in the match that you wish to bet on. In the United States more than elsewhere, in addition to almost all sports, we speak of a “franchise player”, i.e. the most important player on a team. There can sometimes be several of them, and it is then necessary to identify them.
Their latest performances and their current form will be decisive for your predictions. For example, last year, Denis Bouanga finished as the top scorer in MLS, and helped LAFC finish in third-place in the Western Conference!
Beware of low-stakes matches in the USA
It is very important to be aware of what is really at stake in the match you are about to bet on. For example, if a club has already qualified for the playoffs at the end of the season, but is no longer in contention for top spot, it could afford to rest some of its key players in order to be fresh for the second half of the season. The same goes for a club that can no longer qualify for the play-offs and has nothing left to play for at the end of the season, and could probably play the last few games without being 100% focused.
Before betting on the US football championship, you need to take a good look at the official standings and see what is really at stake for a team this season. For example, there is no relegation, so there is no real pressure on the teams at the bottom of the table.
Check out the MLS markets at Bet365
Analyze the latest Major League Soccer matches
When betting on MLS, it's essential to understand how key players have performed in recent matches, particularly in matches similar to the one you want to bet on. Players who are in good form will be more likely to maintain their high level of play in upcoming matches, which is why the absence of several of these key players could drastically alter their team's performance.
So always analyse the teams' recent matches and check that the team's in-form players are not absent for the match you are considering betting on.
Take the time to compare MLS odds between bookmakers
inally, and this will have a direct impact on your net winnings, we strongly advise you to compare the MLS odds offered by the different bookmakers before placing a bet. It often happens that there is a big difference between two bookmakers for the same type of bet. For example, a big match like Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders might see Unibet offering the home side a win at 1.80, while Vbet will only offer it at 1.70.
At first glance, this may not seem to have much of an impact, but these differences start to add up over the long term. We therefore advise you to sign up with as many bookmakers as possible to guarantee yourself the best odds on the market. What's more, you'll be able to take advantage of the fantastic welcome bonuses offered by the various sports betting sites!
Check out the MLS odds at Bet365
What Not to Do For Your MLS Predictions
In addition to the advice you have been given on how to make the most of your MLS betting, here are some things you should avoid doing as a bettor. Eliminating them from your betting process will help to optimise your results in this competition. Here's what you shouldn't do before placing a bet on an MLS match:
- Ignore the specifics of the American league
- Ignore the statistics and other important MLS figures
- Bet amounts you're not prepared to lose
- Betting on an MLS team that has nothing to play for at the end of the season
- Overvaluing a team because it has a star in its squad
- Not taking into account the home advantage in Major League Soccer
Now you know what mistakes you shouldn't make when betting on MLS. There may be one that you often make without realizing it, so try not to make it again - it's bound to benefit you.
2024 MLS Prediction: Statistics You Need to Know
In order to increase your chances of success in your Major League Soccer bets, you may find some data on the league useful. Below we’ve compiled some of the most useful statistics, note that these figures are from the current 2024 edition:
- Home win percentage: 44%
- Draw percentage: 25%
- Away win percentage: 31%
- Average goals: 3.13 goals per game
- Average home goals: 1.73 goals per game
- Average away goals: 1.41 goals per game
- Quarter-hour with most goals: 76-90 (23%)
- Most frequent exact score: 2-1 (9.6%)
- Exact score 0-0: 6.3% of matches
- Most frequent exact half-time score: 0-0 (25.3%)
- Over 1.5 goals: 82%
- Over 2.5 goals: 62%
- Over 3.5 goals: 39%
- "Both teams score: yes": 63%
The MLS is a pretty spectacular league, which improves year on year and generally puts on a great show. In any case, it's a way of life in the United States. It's clearly the land of excess and show, and soccer is now part of that too. We've seen an increase in the average goals scored per match this year, going from 2.74 in 2023 to 3.13 in 2024. This has also resulted in a significant increase in the Over 2.5 goals betting market, with nearly two-thirds of matches seeing at least three goals scored!
Away teams also proved to put up more of a challenge this year, raising the winning percentage for the road team from 23% last season to 31% this season. The average away goals scored has also seen a notable uptick, going from 1.07 to 1.41 goals per game this year!
In short: how do you bet on the MLS and make successful predictions?
If you want to make reliable football predictions this year in MLS, remember to take into account the advice given on this page by our tipsters. An in-depth analysis of each match is necessary, and the key figures on the competition are there to help you.
It is also useful to familiarise yourself with the general workings of the league and to bear in mind its special features, which make it unique in the world. Happy betting on American Major League Soccer!
MLS: discover the best odds at VBET!
Our current MLS previews
There are no previews at the moment for this competition
MLS: best odds
1.92
3.93
4.1
The images featuring this article are licensed from the IMAGO website.
MLS : Frequently Asked Questions
Apple TV has the exclusive rights to the MLS, regardless of which country you are located. If you are not a subscriber, you can follow the matches live on our dedicated MLS Livescore page. That way, you won't miss a thing of this magnificent competition.
