Copa Libertadores 2024 Predictions & Betting tips
Copa Libertadores Presentation and Prediction
The Copa Libertadores is the main international club competition in South America. It’s undoubtedly the most prestigious and holds a similar standing to the UEFA Champions League on the continent. With such an entertaining and intense tournament, it has naturally become a very popular competition to bet on, even for punters who don’t regularly follow Latin American football. Fluminense are the defending champions after winning their first ever Copa Libertadores title with a 2-1 extra time victory over Boca Juniors.
The competition runs from February 7 (date of the start of the preliminary phase) to November 30, the date on which we will know who will be crowned of South America.
Ready to dive into the fiery world of the Copa Libertadores? Our experts have got you covered! On SportyTrader you’ll find predictions and analysis on all of the big matches in this competition. Continue reading below to see our pick on which team will win the cup as well as a number of useful statistics that you can apply when making your own predictions!
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Copa Libertadores Final Prediction: Which Team Will Lift La Copa in 2024?
It’s been an unbelievable season for Botafogo who have the chance to do a league and continental cup double. Fogo is not only into the final of the Copa Libertadores for the first time in the club’s 120-year history, but they are also leading the Brasileiro Serie A with only a few games remaining.
Botafogo haven’t won the league title since 1995 although the majority of fans would likely choose the Copa Libertadores crown if they had to choose one. They cruised to a 6-3 aggregate victory over Peñarol in the semi-final, owing to a historic 5-0 home victory in the first leg.
Botafogo might have the psychological advantage as they ran out 3-0 winners over Atletico Mineiro back in July in the only meeting between the two clubs so far this season. There will be an interesting dynamic at play however, as these two teams are set to face off in matchday 34 of the Brazilian top flight.
Ultimately, we believe Botafogo will emerge as the winners and lift the Copa Libertadores trophy. They’ve been the better, more consistent team throughout this entire season and there is an unbelievable amount of momentum in the squad right now. Our Copa Libertadores final prediction: Botafogo to win!
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2024 Copa Libertadores Final - Odds to win the title
- Botafogo - 1.65
- Atletico Mineiro - 2.10
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Copa Libertadores Top Scorer Prediction: Who Will Score the Most Goals?
Fluminense striker German Cano claimed the golden boot last season with 13 goals en route to lifting the Copa Libertadores crown. He'll be back at it this time around and, despite being 35 years of age, is playing some of the best football of his career. One of the most exciting players in the competition and a front-runner for the award every year is Flamengo's star striker Gabriel Barbosa. However, there is a huge cloud of uncertainty hanging over the 27-year-old as he faces a potential two-year suspension following charges of obstructing anti-doping tests.
Botafogo's Junior Santos has been the main man throughout this competition so far and is in the driving seat when it comes to the golden boot award. The 29-year-old has notched 9 goals so far, giving him a two-goal lead over Paulinho in second. Our 2024 Copa Libertadores top goalscorer prediction: Junior Santos!
2024 Copa Libertadores - Top goalscorer odds
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Copa Libertadores Semi-Final Results
Below you'll find the results for what was an unforgettable semi-final in South America's premier club competition. It was the case of a pair of dominant first leg performances on home soil that would ultimately seal the deal for the two Brazilian clubs. Botafogo scored a historic 5-0 first leg win while Atletico Mineiro were fantastic in front of goal in a 3-0 first leg win.
- Atletico Mineiro (Bra) vs River Plate (Arg): Atletico Mineiro advances 3-0 on aggregate
- Botafogo (Bra) vs Peñarol (Uru): Botafogo advances 6-3 on aggregate
Quarter-Final Results
Below you'll find the results of the Copa Libertadores quarter-final. There were a number of tight battles with plenty of intensity, something that has become synonymous with this competition over the years. All four matchups were decided by single goal or less, with one of those heading to penalties.
The biggest name to fall in this round was undoubtedly Flamengo, who lifted the cup in 2019 and 2022.
- Colo-Colo vs River Plate: River Plate advances 2-1 on aggregate
- Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro:Atletico Mineiro advances 2-1 on aggregate
- Flamengo vs Peñarol: Peñarol advances 1-0 on aggregate
- Botafogo vs São Paulo: Botafogo 5-4 on penalties (1-1 aggregate)
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Beginner’s Guide to How the Copa Libertadores Works
The 2024 Copa Libertadores sees 47 teams from 10 South American countries participating including the initial qualification stages. Once the qualifying dust has settled, 32 teams begin the group stages. Allocation for spots in the Copa Libertadores differs from country to country, with the stronger domestic leagues receiving more spots.
- At the start of the group stage there are: five teams from both Brazil and Argentina, two from Chile, Colombia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela.
- The previous years’ winner is automatically granted entry as well as the winner of the previous season’s Copa Sudamericana.
- Four teams from qualifying enter into the group stage.
- The first qualifying round begins on February 6th for the 2024 edition
- The group stage kicks off on April 2nd and runs until May 30th
- The round of 16 begins on August 13th and runs through to the semi-final which concludes on October 31st.
- Knockout stage games are played across two legs, home and away, with the higher aggregate scoreline advancing. The final is a single elimination game.
- The final takes place on November 30th, 2024.
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How to Make Good Predictions on Copa Libertadores Matches?
We’ve compiled a list of useful betting strategies that can assist you when making your next Copa Libertadores predictions:
- Match motivation and the fixture congestion
- Use detailed statistics to analyze team performance
- Account for player injuries and suspensions
- Consider the form of the teams
- Compare odds across bookmakers
Below you’ll learn about the betting techniques used by our experts and exactly how to implement them for use in South America's top cup competition.
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1. Match motivation and fixture congestion
Match motivation applies more for the group stage. Situations arise where a team has no possibility of advancing from their group heading into the final match or two. However, be aware that the third-place group finishers earn entry into the Copa Sudamericana knockout stages. This means that even teams that might be eliminated from a top two group finish can still potentially have something to play for.
A team’s fixture list also must be factored into the equation when you are analyzing matches. Is the team on short rest? Are they coming off a heated rivalry domestic fixture on the weekend? Did the manager opt to rotate his first choice players so they would be fit for the Copa Libertadores? These are all questions you should ask yourself when analyzing a matchup in the Copa Libertadores. Due to the prestige and importance of the tournament on the continent, clubs will often prioritize the Copa Libertadores above their domestic leagues.
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2. Use detailed statistics to analyze team performance
There are a number of useful stats that will help you to gauge which way a match might go. The Copa Libertadores is a tournament which sees home sides enjoy a distinct advantage, one that is much more pronounced than other leagues. This is down to a few reasons including long travel times, drastic differences in altitude / weather and intimidating home crowds.
Take note of a team’s average shots total, goal conversion rate, opponent penalty box touches, clear cut scoring chances and clean sheet percentage. Note how these statistics differ when the team is home vs away. Some sites will also provide expected goals (xG) statistics which can be an excellent way to determine how a team performed. Many hold the viewpoint that a team’s expected goals (and expected goals against) total is one of the most accurate ways to accurately predict current and future results. Use this information in your bets and you’re bound to see an improvement to your bottom line!
3. Account for player injuries and suspensions
The best football punters in the world constantly stay up-to-date with the latest injuries, suspensions and changes to squads in the leagues and competition they bet on. It can be a potential disaster if you bet on a team expecting their star player to suit up only to find out that they are suspended for a match due to accumulating yellow cards. The Copa Libertadores, like many highly-competitive leagues and tournaments, can see a match decided through the brilliance of an individual player.
One way to deal with this potential problem is to wait until the lineups are announced for a given match. This usually occurs anywhere from one hour to 30 minutes before kickoff. However, the trade off here is that you may be sacrificing the ability to beat the line movement by locking a bet early. The benefit is that you are 100% sure how both teams will line up.
Additionally, a great way to stay on top of team news is by following the social media platforms of different teams. It’s common to find starting lineups, match reviews and player / injury news on the official accounts of platforms such as X / Twitter.
4. Consider the form of the teams
Form always plays a big part when making a prediction on a football match. Like many other sports, football often sees players and teams go through hot and cold streaks. A team playing well and in a good rhythm will, naturally, take that confidence into each match. Logically, you’d expect that team to be able to come up with more consistent performances on the pitch.
Conversely, teams can also go through cold streaks where nothing seems to go right. They may get a few unlucky bounces of the ball and thus suffer a few losses in a row. Losing can often have a negative impact on a player or team’s confidence which in turn could lead to a below-average quality of performance. Be sure to pay attention to how teams are performing at different points throughout the season.
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5. Compare odds across bookmakers
One of the most important strategies that a bettor can implement is to compare odds across different bookmakers. Betting odds can often differ between some sites, at times even up to 10%. If you can consistently get the best possible line available on the market, you’ll see the benefits in your bottom line come the end of the season!
For example, let’s say you want to back River Plate to get the win over Flamengo. You find the Argentinian club to win at odds of 1.95 on one site but 2.05 on another. While it may not seem like much at first glance, the difference between these two bets would come out to €100 if placing a stake of €10 over the course of 100 bets.Extrapolate that same type of thinking across every bet that you make for an entire season and you can begin to see why shopping for the best price is such a profitable strategy.
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What Not to Do for Your Copa Libertadores Predictions
Just as there are useful betting strategies and techniques, there are also a handful of harmful betting habits you should avoid:
- Chasing losses (ex. Betting triple your normal amount to ‘make up for’ two previous losses).
- Blindly betting on your favorite team
- Regularly betting on heavily favored teams (odds of 1.25 or lower)
- Not practicing proper bankroll management (betting random or more than a fixed amount on each bet)
- Betting strictly on a team’s name and reputation and not accounting for recent performance and form
- Disregarding the betting odds and not understanding the implied probability behind them
- Not comparing bookmakers to find the best possible odds on the market for your bet
- Not taking into account underlying statistics
- Underestimating home field advantage in Copa Libertadores matches
Eliminating these bad habits from your betting process will have you on your way to becoming a more profitable bettor!
Copa Libertadores Prediction: Statistics You Need to Know
In this section we’ll take a look at some of the key statistics that we’ve compiled that you can apply to your future Copa Libertadores predictions. All of these statistics are from the previous campaign (2023):
- Home win percentage: 54%
- Draw percentage: 25%
- Away win percentage: 21%
- Average goals per game: 2.49
- Matches with over 1.5 goals: 70%
- Matches with over 2.5 goals: 50%
- Matches with over 3.5 goals: 26%
- Both teams to score: 50% of matches
- Average home goals: 1.55 per match
- Average away goals: 0.94 per match
- Goals scored in first half: 41%
- Goal scored in second half: 59%
- Most common scoreline: 1-0 home team (12.3%)
- Second most common: 2-1 home team (12.3%)
- Third and fourth: 0-0, 1-1 (10.3% and 9.7%)
- Half-time most common score: 0-0 (34.2%)
- Half-time second most common: 1-0 home team (22.6%)
As you can see from the statistics above, home teams in the Copa Libertadores have a significant home field advantage. This is often larger than leagues such as the Premier League and Bundesliga, which see home teams winning 48% and 47% of their matches, respectively. Bettors should factor this into their equation when making their predictions: it’s often very difficult to get a result as the away team in this competition.
Another point that stands out is the discrepancy between first half goals and second half goals. Punters would be wise to look for bets such a “most goals: second half” or potentially live bet the over at half time.
In Short: How to Make the Right Copa Libertadores Predictions?
When making your predictions for Copa Libertadores matches, be sure to consult the statistics provided in this article to point you in the right direction. You can also refer back to the key betting strategies that we laid out as well as the ones to avoid! These should all help to give you the edge over the bookmakers.
If you are looking for a different perspective or simply don’t have the time to delve into in-depth analysis on a particular match, head over to our football match predictions page to see what our betting experts have to say. You can also use our Copa Libertadores odds comparator and Copa Libertadores livescores tool to keep you informed. Remember, all of the betting tips provided at SportyTrader are completely free of charge!
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