UEFA Nations League Predictions & Betting tips

Find our free Nations League prediction, as well as our expert predictions on the UEFA Nations League football matches (2024-2025). Lots of information for your sports betting!

UEFA Nations League Presentation - Football

The UEFA Nations League is a recent European competition, devised by UEFA in 2018 and involves all 54 national teams on the European continent. Also known as the UEFA Nations League, the competition takes place every two years, during the seasons when no major competition is organised (World Cup or the Euros).

At the end of the 2024-2025 edition of the Nations League, 4 teams in total will qualify for the playoffs for the 2026 World Cup, making the competition far more interesting than the friendlies that are usually played. It's a competition that you'll have to follow for your football predictions!

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Who will win the Nations League 2024-2025?

We now know the final eight teams that will contest the knockout stages of the 2024/25 Nations League. The four group winners: Portugal, France, Germany and Spain, along with the four group runners-up: Croatia, Netherlands, Denmark and Italy.

France's performance in the 2024 Euro was worrying, so was the star player Mbappé's. In our opinion, it's risky to put your bet on Deschamps's men at this point, regardless of the odds. 

Spain, the reigning champions and winners of Euro 2024, and Germany are our two favourites. This year, we saw La Roja pulling off a double, and further cementing their place in the history not only of this competition, but also of European and world football.

The odds on Lamine Yamal and his team-mates winning are clearly tempting at the moment, so don't hesitate to give it a go! Our Nations League winner's prediction: Spain win the 2024-2025 edition!

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Nations League - Outright Odds

• Spain - 4.00
• Germany - 4.50
• France - 5.00
• Portugal - 5.50
• Italy - 8.00
• Netherlands - 13.00
• Croatia - 15.00
• Denmark - 17.00

Odds from Betfair

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2024-25 Nations League quarter-finals prediction

We're now down to the final eight teams in the bid to become the winner of the fourth edition of the UEFA Nations League. Below you'll find the full draw as well as our thoughts on which team will prevail.

*First leg - 20 March 2025 / Return leg: 23 March 2025*

• Netherlands vs Spain
• Croatia vs France
• Denmark vs Portugal
• Italy vs Germany

The Netherlands certainly have the potential to be a tricky opponent, but the reigning Nations League and European champions should be able to deal with them.

While France have perhaps not looked at their best at times in this tournament, their opponents Croatia have really struggled to get consistent wins. We expect the 2018 world champions to move on to the semis. 

Portugal finished unbeaten in their group and are good value to defeat a Danish team that has now failed to win in their last four appearances.

Some bookmakers have Germany as co-favorites with Spain which is rightfully earned. The Germans have been excellent and manager Julian Nagelsmann has transformed them into a feared team and one that plays with a real identity. Italy have been impressive in this tournament but they will struggle to keep up with Germany’s devastating attack.

Our prediction for the 2024-2025 Nations League groups

Divided into a total of four divisions, the 54 European teams have been classified by level into different groups. 

Nations League - League A

Sixteen of Europe's top nations feature in League A.

Divided into four groups of four, they will battle it out to finish in the top two places and reach the quarter-finals before looking ahead to the Final Four in a bid to win the 2024-2025 Nations League title.

The third-placed team in each group will play off for survival, while the last-placed team will be automatically relegated. A competition full of suspense awaits us, with many clashes on the programme! Discover the composition of the groups below.

Group 1 - Croatia, Poland, Portugal, Scotland

The first group of the Nations League features Croatia, finalists in the last edition of the competition but a much weaker team recently, coming off the back of a disappointing Euro. They find themselves in an evenly-matched group with Portugal, winners of the first edition, as well as Poland and Scotland, two teams who took part in the last European Championship in 2024.

As far as first place is concerned, we're putting our money on the Portuguese! They are more than capable to finish ahead of their future opponents. For the second place, we can see the Croatians also reaching the quarter-finals despite of their recent form. The Poles and Scots would then have to battle it out to decide who would go through to the playoffs, and who would be relegated to League B.

Final standings:

1. Portugal - 14 points
2. Croatia - 8 points
3. Scotland - 7 points
4. Poland - 4 point

Our prediction: Portugal wins Group 1

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Group 2 - Belgium, France, Italy, Israel

This second group is another fine one, with Les Bleus joined by two of their neighbours, Belgium and Italy, as well as Israel. While the latter is unlikely to qualify for the rest of the tournament, the battle should be fierce between the other three nations.

We see the French team finishing top of the group against two nations in decline, and Belgium finishing second. Deschamps's men may not be at their best either, but they are still one of the best in the world. Tedesco's Belgium are also slightly ahead of the Italians in our opinion. Gli Azzurri could well go through the playoffs to stay in League A, as we imagine Israel finishing in last place and therefore returning to League B.

Current standings:

1. France - 13 points
2. Italy - 13 points
3. Belgium - 4 points
4. Israel - 4 points

Our prediction: France wins Group 2

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Group 3 - Germany, Bosnia, Hungary, Netherlands

There are two obvious favourites here: Germany and the Netherlands! In our opinion, the latter should occupy the top two places in the ranking in the order announced. Hungary could well finish third and have a chance of salvaging a place in the top flight, as it would be hard to see it doing so with the last quarter-finalist and semi-finalist at Euro 2024.

Bosnia-Herzegovina has suffered in recent years with the departure of influential players like Miralem Pjanić and Edin Džeko were around.

Current standings:

1. Germany - 14 points
2. Netherlands - 9 points
3. Hungary - 6 points
4. Bosnia Herzegovina - 2 points

Our prediction: Germany wins Group 3

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Group 4 - Denmark, Serbia, Spain, Switzerland

A very fine final group with two neighbours, once again Spain and Switzerland, plus Christian Eriksen's Denmark and Serbia and their many talented players (Aleksandar Mitrović, Dusan Vlahovic, Sergej Milinković-Savić, etc.). These are all very attack-oriented teams, and we are sure to be treated to some superb matches in Group 4!

In first place, reigning champions Spain, who have just won Euro 2024 in July, possess a litany of top players should not be shaken, it will be a tight battle for second-place with the other three teams quite close in terms of quality. Denmark have the experience to secure a top-two finish while third-place and a spot in the playoff is sure to be a toss up.

Current standings:

1. Spain - 16 points
2. Denmark - 8 points
3. Serbia - 6 points
4. Switzerland - 2 pointa

Our prediction: Spain wins Group 4

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Nations League - League B

Group 1 of the Nations League Division B features Ukraine, Albania, the Republic of Ireland and Georgia. It's a superb group, with some fine, hard-playing nations. We'd give Ukraine a slight advantage for first place, but it should be a great battle against the Albanians and Georgians in particular.

The second group features one of Europe's biggest nations, England, unfortunate finalists at Euro 2024, followed by Finland, Greece and Ireland. There's no real suspense here, as we see the Three Lions bounce back from their terrible last Nations League and return to the first division!

Group 3 is made up of Austria, Kazakhstan, Norway and Slovenia. Austria, who put in a fine performance at Euro 2024, will start as slight favourites, but watch out for Erling Haaland's Norway and Benjamin Šeško's Slovenia, who are coming off a penalty shoot-out loss to Portugal in the last 16 at Euro 2024, without losing a game in regulation time.

Iceland, Montenegro, Turkey and Wales make up the fourth and final group. Here, we give a slight advantage to Arda Güler's Turks, who are coming off the back of a quarter-final appearance at the last European Championship and have shown some very good form, particularly in their quarter-final defeat of the Netherlands.

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Nations League - League C

Azerbaijan, Estonia, Slovakia and Sweden make up the first group. We should see a great battle between the Slovaks, who are coming off a very good Euro 2024, where they reached the last 16, and Sweden, who have a fine generation of players and hope to achieve great things. In our opinion, the Swedes are slightly ahead.

The second group includes Lithuania, Romania, Kosovo and Cyprus. The advantage here is Romania, who also had a very good European Championship 2024 and were also knocked out in the Round of 16! Watch out for Kosovo, who have some good players, including Edon Zhegrova, the winger who excelled at LOSC.

Group 3 is made up of Bulgaria, Belarus, Luxembourg and Northern Ireland. It's a difficult group to predict, as it's hard to estimate the level of these nations at the moment, even if Belarus have a slight advantage.

Finally, Armenia, Northern Macedonia, Latvia and the Faroe Islands are in the fourth and final group! It should be a great battle between the top two nations, with Armenia a slight advantage in our opinion.

Nations League D

Lastly, in League D, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar and San Marino make up the first group. The second includes Malta, Andorra and Moldova.

It's hard to say, but Gibraltar and Moldova have a slight advantage!

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Beginners to sports betting - how does the Nations League work and what is its format?

The Nations League may seem complicated at first glance, but it's actually quite simple. For the first edition, the 54 participating teams were divided into four divisions according to their UEFA coefficients (based mainly on past performances). These four divisions, known as League A, League B, League C and League D, are themselves divided into several groups of three to four teams.

For example, in League A, the French team was placed in Group 1 in 2022-2023 (along with Croatia, Denmark and Austria). In the same league, Spain were in Group 2, along with Portugal, Switzerland and the Czech Republic. Italy was in Group 3 with Germany and England, while the Netherlands and Belgium were in Group 4. So we were treated to some great clashes, and that will be the case again this year!

And in the lower divisions (B, C and D), things remain much the same, with different groups comprising the various national teams. Division D, comprising the weakest teams, has two pools, one of which is made up of three nations. There is also an up-and-down system, which rewards the smaller teams for playing in the big leagues.

A little novelty in this 2024-2025 edition is the arrival of quarter-finals (whereas previously we went straight to the semi-finals), and playoffs to keep teams in the various leagues.

key points for your Nations League Predictions

• 54 teams take part in the group phase
• Group stage from 5 September to 19 November 2024
• The top two teams (from the 4 League A groups) qualify for the quarter-finals.
• The third-placed team in the League A groups plays off for survival
• The fourth-placed team in the League A groups is relegated to League B.
• An up-and-down system also applies to the other leagues
• Quarter-finals in two-legged matches on 20 and 23 March 2025
• Single match semi-finals on 2 and 5 June 2025
• Final and 3rd place playoff on 8 June 2025

Before you start your predictions and bets on this Nations League, keep this tournament format in mind. This will allow you to avoid falling into certain traps during the final matches of the group phase.

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What is at stake in the UEFA Nations League?

In the previous edition (2022-2023) of the Nations League, two playoff places for Euro 2024 were offered to the top two teams in the group stages. This is an added incentive for the tournament, keeping many players motivated and giving your Nations League predictions a boost. And for 2026, 4 tickets will be offered by the Nations League!

We've come a long way from friendly matches with little at stake. For this fourth edition (2024-2025), the qualifying places to be obtained will be for the 2026 World Cup, which will be played in the United States, Mexico or Canada. This should keep that all the teams motivated!

Indeed, nations that failed to qualify directly via the World Cup qualifiers will have a second chance with the results of the Nation's League. A total of 16 selections (12 runners-up from the groups during the qualifiers and the 4 best teams from the Nations League who did not qualify via the latter) will then take part in the playoffs, with a final chance of reaching the 2026 World Cup.

These playoffs will be knockout matches, with 4 teams joining the 2026 adventure in the United States. As you can see, the Nations League gives a total of 4 countries an extra chance to qualify for the World Cup, even if they don't finish top of the qualifying groups!

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Our tips for making the right predictions for the 2024-2025 Nations League matches

Having given you our various predictions for the competition and discussed the format of the tournament, here are our tips for making the right prediction on each Nations League match.

These will simply enable you to play as well as possible with online operators, in order to get as close as possible to the best possible prediction.

Our main tips:

• Consider the form of the national team
• Analyse the strength of each nation
• Take rivalry and history into account
• Analyse what's at stake in the match
• Take advantage of the best odds

By taking these few tips into account, you should be able to make better predictions throughout the competition. Want more details? You'll find it just below!

Consider the form of the national team

First of all, you need to analyse the form of the teams you are betting on online. What are their most recent results?

Has the team you want to bet on just had a series of good games in all competitions? Or, on the contrary, has it just had a run of poor results?

If one of the big nations has gone seven games without a win and is facing a team that is weaker on paper but has gone ten games without a defeat, you might want to go for the latter.

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Analysing the strength of each nation

Next, it's also very important to know the squads of the two teams in the match you're betting on.

Are the key players fit? Are they injured or suspended? Are there any minor problems that could affect their chances of playing in the match or playing to their full potential? Is a player absent from the list for one reason or another?

As we all know, France won't be as good without Maignan and Mbappé, for example. And this advice applies to all sports and all competitions when you place your sports bets.

And it's even more important for the ‘small nations’, who rely heavily on two or three individuals to perform. Take Georgia, for example, with Mikautadze, Kvaratskhelia and Mamardashvili.

Take rivalry and history into account

It will also be vital for you to pay particular attention to any rivalries between two teams, and to the history of recent head-to-head meetings between two teams.

In the case of France v Portugal or France v Belgium, for example, there have been major rivalries between fans and players since 2016 and 2018, and decisive matches are rare in this type of encounter. We saw this again in the last Euro 2024 matches (1-0 against the Red Devils and 0-0 with a penalty shoot-out victory against the Portuguese).

If you spot a fixture between two historic rivals, beware, it's the same context as a derby in a national championship, or almost!

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Analysing what's at stake

Next, don't forget to analyse what's really at stake in the match! In a competition like the UEFA Nations League, there are a number of things at stake, such as promotion to the next division, staying in the current division, the league title or the probable qualifying places for the next round of matches.

So before you place your bets, you need to take into account each team's ambitions, to find out how motivated they really are to perform. A team that is stronger on paper but has nothing left to play for, for example, could potentially be beaten by a weaker team playing to stay up. Something to bear in mind.

Take advantage of the best odds

Finally, to make a success of your Nations League betting, you mustn't forget to choose the right bookmaker to place your bet. As you know, different sports betting sites may offer different odds for the same match, and therefore different potential winnings. That's why our Nations League odds comparator will be a great help throughout the competition!

To maximise your winnings, you need to choose the operator offering the best odds on the match you are betting on. To find out in just a few moments which operator is best for you, or the one that suits you best, take a look at our page dedicated to the best bookmakers!

By keeping these tips in mind before each bet, you'll put all the chances on your side to make the most of your bets on this Nations League 2024-2025 edition.

Other aspects are obviously important, but in our opinion these are the most important to take into account before betting on the competition!

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What not to do when making your Nations League predictions

Of course, it's very important to follow the advice and best practice we've just given you in the paragraph above. But if you want to get the most out of your predictions on the competition, there are also a few bad habits you should avoid. 

Before placing a bet on the Nations League, here are some of the things you should avoid doing: 

• Consider a team's prestige alone
• Putting your money on your favourite team in the belief that they are bound to win
• Ignoring the stakes of the match and everything surrounding it
• Betting immediately after losing a bet to ‘make up for it’.
• Not taking an interest in the tactics and style of play of other nations
• Place too many live bets (no time for analysis)
• Betting on the favourites without analysing the match

By avoiding these bad habits, your predictions on the 2024-2025 Nations League matches will obviously become more reliable, so don't forget all that.

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Statistics for your 2024-2025 Nations League predictions

To make good predictions on the Nations League, it is useful to know the important statistics. Here, according to our experts, are the figures you need to know before placing your bets with the bookmakers.

Taken from the last edition, these statistics should make your task easier for the 2024-2025 edition. Note that the figures include all divisions: 

• Home wins: 43%
• Draws: 23%
• Away wins: 34%
• Average goals: 2.62 goals per match
• +0.5 goals: 95%
• -0.5 goals: 5%
• +1.5 goals: 76%
• -1.5 goals: 24%
• +2.5 goals: 46%
• -2.5 goals: 54%
• +3.5 goals: 23%
• -3.5 goals: 77%
• +4.5 goals: 14%
• -4.5 goals: 86%
• ‘Both teams score : yes’: 48%
• Average goals per home game: 1.39
• Average goals per away game: 1.23
• Average shots per game: 24.04
• Victory by a margin of 2 goals or more (handicap): 37% of duels
• Exact score 0-0: 4.9% of clashes
• Correct score 1-1: 12.3% of matches
• Most frequent score: 1-0 or 0-1 (19.1% of games)
• Goal timing distribution: 76‘-90’ (24%)

Among other things, you can see that it will be wise to bet on rather closed matches in this Nations League 2024-2025, or even double-chances on the 1X to cover yourself.

The ‘Over 1.5’ or ‘Under 2.5’ will also be worth a try! And, if you're a fan of betting on the correct score, you'll notice that 1-0 (or 0-1) went through in almost 1 match out of 5 during the last edition.

The odds are very good at online bookmakers for these types of bets, particularly exact score bets, so it would be a shame to miss out. 

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In a nutshell: how to correctly predict Nations League matches?

There's no secret to making successful predictions for the 2024-2025 edition of the Nations League: you simply have to follow all the advice we've just given you on this page. Analysing the matches and everything that surrounds them, the statistics for the competition and for each team, adopting the betting tips and, precisely, banishing the things to avoid are indeed the keys to increasing your winnings at online sports betting sites.

Don't place a bet without first studying a match and its players, as vital information could change your mind or, on the contrary, reinforce your choice. If you don't have the time to do all that, don't hesitate to consult our experts' predictions on the competition, as 100% of the matches are waiting for you.

It's also important to manage your spending on sports betting: this activity should above all remain a leisure activity, and should never become a source of income. Once you've got all that in mind, good luck betting on the Nations League!

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Our current UEFA Nations League predictions

There are no previews at the moment for this competition

UEFA Nations League: the best odds to bet

Would you like to be in the mood throughout the tournament and follow the matches live to place your bets? You can follow all the matches live on our Nations League Livescore. You'll find all the information you need in real time, free of charge (line-ups, scores, statistics, commentary, etc.). Make the most of it!

All the images in this article come from the IMAGO website.