EFL League One Predictions & Betting tips
Check out our free prediction on the 2025-26 EFL League One winner, including the latest odds relating to the race for promotion, the Golden Boot winner and potential relegation candidates. All the information for your sports betting can be found below.
EFL League One 2025-26 Presentation and Predictions
The English Football League One, also referred to as the Sky Bet League One, or simply League One within the UK, is the second level of the English Football League (EFL) pyramid and the third tier in terms of the overall structure of England’s football league system. England’s football pyramid is among the most expansive globally, encompassing even the further reaches of the country.
The EFL system, founded by the father of modern-day football William McGregor, drives the professional tiers, with the Premier League standing separately at the very top. With the financial resources, and therefore calibre of players available to clubs in League One being much more even than in the Premier League, upset results and favourable betting odds on ‘underdogs’ are much more common, making it a potentially profitable betting option with a little bit of guidance if you’re not an avid lower-league follower.
Below you will find some of our experts’ insights and tips.
Winners Prediction: Who will win the 2025-26 League One Title?
Birmingham City dominated the EFL League One like we have never seen before, finishing with the division’s record high points total at 108 en route to being crowned champions.
With the powerhouse Blues now competing in the Championship, the stage is set for a new team to take the mantle as frontrunners. The obvious top candidates are one of the three relegated teams from England’s second division: Cardiff City, Plymouth Argyle and Luton Town.
For our money, Luton Town are looking like strong contenders to top the League One table as we approach the start of the new season. Their current squad value (€62.03 million) is double that of the next highest team in the division (Cardiff - €31.5 million). They also possess a talented manager in Matt Bloomfield, who posted strong results at Wycombe and was a big reason for the Chairboys’ promotion challenge in the 2024-25 season. And while his appointment in February ultimately wasn’t enough to save Luton from relegation in the previous campaign, there have been encouraging early signs for the Hatters under the 41-year-old.
The goal for Luton will be immediate promotion back to the Championship, and many will be expecting them to go up as League One champions. Our 2025-26 EFL League One prediction: Luton Town champions!
2025-26 League One prediction - odds on the favourites
- Luton Town - 4.00
- Huddersfield - 5.00
- Stockport - 6.00
- Cardiff City - 9.50
- Bolton - 9.50
- Barnsley - 21.00
- Stevenage - 21.00
- Blackpool - 26.00
- Wycombe - 26.00
- Wigan - 26.00
- Bradford - 26.00
- Leyton Orient - 34.00
Odds taken from Bet365
Top goalscorer prediction in the 2025-26 EFL League One
Leyton Orient’s Charlie Kelmen claimed golden boot honours in the 2024-25 season, finishing the campaign with 21 goals. Kelmen’s performance earned him a move to Championship side QPR, meaning there will be a new top goalscorer crowned this year.
Our sights are set on Alfie May, who made the move to Huddersfield in the summer after scoring 16 league goals for Birmingham City in the previous season.
The 32-year-old is a proven lethal goalscorer at this level, scoring 20+ in three of the last four League One seasons. That run included winning the top goalscorer award in 2023-24 after netting 23 times for Charlton. May has scored 89 goals at this level in his career and looks a good bet for another solid season in the 2025-26 campaign with the Terriers. Our 2025-26 League One top goalscorer prediction: Alfie May!
2025-26 League One prediction - top goalscorer odds
- Alfie May (Huddersfield) - 5.00
- Yousef Salech (Cardiff) - 9.50
- Nathan Lowe (Stockport) - 13.00
- Davis Keillor-Dunn (Barnsley) - 15.00
- Kyle Wootton (Stockport) - 19.00
- Sam Nombe (Rotherham) - 19.00
- Niall Ennis (Blackpool) - 21.00
- James Collins (Lincoln City) - 21.00
- Jamie Reid (Stevenage) - 23.00
- Jerry Yates (Luton) - 23.00
- Malik Mothersille (Stockport) - 29.00
- Nahki Wells (Luton Town) - 29.00
Odds taken from Bet365
Who will be promoted from League One?
Just like in the Championship, three teams from League One will be promoted at the end of the season. The teams that finish first and second in the league standings will receive automatic promotion to the second tier, while the four teams that end third to sixth place will battle in the League One play-offs to earn the final coveted promotion berth.
Stockport County made a valiant run at automatic promotion last season, coming up just short in third place. After winning League Two in 2023-24, the Hatters almost pulled off the elusive back-to-back promotions. Still, it was a season of great success and progress for Stockport, who posted their best league finish in over 20 years. While they don’t have the budget of the three Championship relegated teams, Stockport have made winning a habit over recent years, and this could be their year to secure a spot back in the Championship.
Joining Luton Town and Stockport could be Cardiff City, who have the type of quality in their squad to challenge for a promotion spot. There is also a lot of excitement around 23-year-old striker Yousef Salech, who has the potential to bag a heap of goals at this level.
Our prediction to be promoted in the 2024/25 League One season: Luton Town, Stockport County and Cardiff City!
2025-26 League One prediction - odds on the favourites for promotion
- Luton Town - 1.72
- Huddersfield - 2.00
- Stockport County - 2.37
- Cardiff City - 3.20
- Bolton - 3.40
- Blackpool - 7.50
- Wycombe - 7.50
- Stevenage - 7.50
- Barnsley - 8.00
- Leyton Orient - 8.50
- Wigan - 8.50
- Bradford - 9.00
- Lincoln City - 13.00
- Doncaster - 13.00
- Reading - 19.00
Odds taken from Bet365
Who will be relegated to League Two?
After winning the League Two promotion playoff following a fifth-place finish in England’s fourth tier, AFC Wimbledon have made the jump up to League One. However, it could be a difficult year for the Dons. Wimbledon has the smallest squad transfer value in the division at just €3.13 million and there are real questions as to whether or not they have the required quality to avoid the drop.
In a similar boat is Northampton, who finished 19th last year. There are serious question marks over whether or not the Cobblers have the firepower to score enough goals to keep them up this term.
Mansfield Town narrowly avoided the drop last season and it’s looking likely that they will struggle once again in the 2025-26 season. Lastly, Rotherham United will need to quickly reinforce their squad if they are to repeat their 13th-place finish from last year. At the moment, this team doesn’t look to have the depth nor quality to stay in the division over the course of the full season.
Our 2025-26 League One relegation prediction: AFC Wimbledon, Northampton, Mansfield and Rotherham United.
2025-26 League One prediction - odds on the favourites for relegation
- Northampton - 1.80
- Burton Albion - 1.80
- AFC Wimbledon - 2.50
- Peterborough - 2.50
- Exeter - 2.62
- Rotherham - 3.00
- Plymouth - 3.00
- Port Vale - 4.33
- Mansfield - 4.50
- Reading - 5.00
- Doncaster - 6.00
- Lincoln City - 7.50
Odds taken from Bet365
Beginners Guide to how the EFL League One works
Starting with the basics - A total of 24 teams compete in the EFL League One, the same number of teams that contest the Championship but four more than in the Premier League. Each team will play 23 home games and 23 away games over the course of the season, accumulating the normal three points for a win, one point for a draw and no points for a loss.
At the end of the campaign, the teams that finish first and second in the final league standings receive automatic promotion to the Championship, while the teams placed third through sixth enter the playoffs with the winner securing the final promotion berth.
In terms of relegation, while three teams suffer the drop in the Premier League and Championship, in League One, the bottom four teams drop to the lower division.
How to make good predictions on League One matches
Given the fairly evenly matched nature of the teams in League One, predicting outcomes can become a little tricky, especially if you’re making decisions blindly. Here are a few factors to consider in your League One betting decisions:
- Utilize team form analysis
- Consider the fixture schedule
- Pay attention to team absences
- Factor in the match importance
- Analyze the latest League One statistics
While not foolproof, these tips will help you make better wager decisions if used correctly. Let’s break them down a little further.
Utilize team form analysis
Arguably the most obvious of strategies, analysing a team’s form will unpack a wealth of information that will be invaluable in your betting decisions. Pay attention to things like the team’s home vs away form and players who are performing well to identify potential market opportunities.
Consider the fixture schedule
With 24 teams competing in League One, along with FA Cup and EFL Cup commitments, matches can often come thick and fast, which can sometimes lead to a team playing two or even three games in a week. This is another crucial factor as a team playing too frequently may not be at the top of their powers, especially against a well-rested, fresher side.
Pay attention to team absences
Indeed, big players have a major impact on teams’ performances in League One, and the absence of a star player could spell bad news for a side in a specific match, as well as your wager if you fancy that team to win. Be sure to keep up to date with player injuries and suspensions wherever possible.
Factor in the match importance
While every match carries the same number of points on offer, some games are just more important than others, particularly late on in the season when teams are jostling for league positions, be it for a playoff spot or to avoid relegation. The importance of the match can easily influence the performance of a team in the contest.
Analyze the Latest League One statistics
Finally, with the plethora of information available, it would be a foolish decision not to make use of it, as statistics are a sure-fire way to give your betting decisions some sort of foundation. Stats can be used in a variety of ways to find solid betting opportunities, but be sure to use only reliable sources, such as those found right here on SportyTrader.
What not to do for your EFL League One predictions
When making predictions on the EFL League One, it is as important to follow certain practices as it is to avoid others. Below, we will provide you with the most common mistakes punters fall victim to, which often lead to losing bets.
- Failing to analyze team form
- Allowing team bias to sway betting decisions
- Betting blindly without any information
- Chasing huge odds on underdogs
- Trying to recover losses from previous bets
- Neglecting team news and player absences
- Failing to compare odds from different bookies
While these may seem obvious at first glance, it’s truly astonishing how many bettors ignore one or more of these factors to their detriment. Avoid them at all costs!
EFL League One predictions: statistics you need to know
As mentioned, using statistics is an excellent way to help improve the win percentage on your bets, and we’ve put together the most relevant figures from the recently completed 2024-25 campaign to help get you started.
- Home wins: 43%
- Draws: 24%
- Away wins: 33%
- Average goals: 2.58 goals per game
- +0.5 goals: 92%
- -0.5 goals: 8%
- +1.5 goals: 73%
- -1.5 goals: 27%
- +2.5 goals: 50%
- -2.5 goals: 50%
- +3.5 goals: 24%
- -3.5 goals: 76%
- +4.5 goals: 12%
- -4.5 goals: 88%
- Goal timing distribution: 76-90 minutes (22%)
- First half goals: 45%
- Second half goals: 55%
- Average home team goals: 1.40
- Average away team goals: 1.18
- “Both teams to score: yes”: 52% of matches
- Average shots per match: 19.45 shots
- Wins by 2 goals or more (handicap): 32.5% of matches
- Correct score 0-0: 8.4% of matches
- Correct score 1-1: 10.8% of matches
- Most frequent score: 2-1 or 1-2 (19.6% of games)
Away teams had a good deal of success in the most recent League One season. It could, therefore, be worth considering the double chance market for the away team, which would have come through at a 57% clip last year. And while League One doesn't see as many goals as, say, the Premier League, it still held a respectable 2.58 average goals total in 2024-25. That just means you will have to be more selective as to which matches you decide to play the 'Both teams to score: Yes' and Over 2.5 goals markets going forward.
If you're looking for even higher odds, both the 0-0 and 1-1 exact score markets will certainly be bets that you will want to keep a close eye on. If you spot a matchup between two evenly matches teams, especially if one or both of them are strong defensively, this could be a nice avenue to score some nice payouts! Of course, nothing is guaranteed with these types of bets!
In short: how to make good EFL League One predictions?
While there is no exact science behind making good betting decisions, there are a few guidelines that can be followed which are sure to improve your success rate and increase your winnings. Chief among those guidelines are to stay in tune with the latest news relating to the league and conduct thorough research before placing wagers.
Avoid the common pitfalls laid out above, and wherever possible, leverage insights from verified experts, such as those here at SportyTrader, who will be covering the entire 2025-26 EFL League One season, and providing their valuable football predictions for you to take advantage of free of charge.
League One (England - Football): Predictions of the moment
There are no previews at the moment for this competition
League One (England - Football): Best odds
2.32
3.65
3
1.76
3.78
4.8
3.55
3.3
2.1
1.96
3.68
4.04
1.76
3.65
4.8
1.58
4.24
5.5
1.98
3.7
3.7
2.15
3.38
3.7
2.7
3.4
2.6
3.45
3.5
2.15
1.83
3.5
4.62
1.79
3.51
4.8
