Fluminense vs Atletico MG Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa Libertadores
by Joseph King in Copa Libertadores Predictions
A Brazilian matchup in the Copa Libertadores quarter-final sees defending champions Fluminense facing off against Atletico Mineiro for this first leg fixture. Let’s break down the key statistics for this match between the Tricolor and Galo.
Fluminense are attempting to become only the second team in the past 20 years to defend their Libertadores crown (Palmeiras in 2020, 2021). The holders prevailed on penalties against Gremio in the round of 16 following a 3-3 aggregate scoreline.
It’s been a tough year for the Tricolor in the domestic league, where they currently sit just one spot above the relegation zone with a third of the season remaining. However, all will be forgiven if they can lift the Copa Libertadores crown for the second time in their club’s history.
Last time taking to the pitch saw Fluminense blow a one-goal lead late in the game. They conceded twice in the final 10 minutes of play to fall to a 2-1 away defeat to Juventude in the Brazilian Serie A, snapping a three-game winning streak.
Their opponents have had similar domestic struggles as Atletico Mineiro sit 10th in the Brazilian Serie A. The visitors are one-time champions in this competition (2013) and have now made it to at least the quarter-final in four of the last six seasons.
Atletico Mineiro posted a stellar five wins from six in the group stage which saw them matched up with San Lorenzo in the round of 16. A 1-0 home victory in the second leg saw Galo edge their Argentine opponents 2-1 on aggregate.
Atletico MG come into this matchup off the back of a heavy 3-0 away defeat to Bahia on the weekend.
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The Best Betting Odds for Fluminense v Atletico MG Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.45 | 2.75 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.3 | 2.87 | 3 |
|
|
2.44 | 3.08 | 3.26 |
|
|
2.44 | 3.08 | 3.26 |
|
|
2.35 | 2.85 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.46 | 2.93 | 3.28 |
|
|
2.5 | 2.85 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.42 | 3.05 | 3.22 |
|
|
2.45 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Fluminense and Atletico MG?
Our prediction for the Fluminense vs Atletico MG match is: Under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/09/2024 between Fluminense and Atletico MG in Copa Libertadores :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 43.24% for a win of Fluminense against Atletico MG with odds of 2.5 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Fluminense vs Atletico MG is 32.12% with odds of 3.1 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 24.64% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico MG vs Fluminense with odds of 3.6 at Stake.
Fluminense - Atletico MG Prediction and Best Odds:
| Fluminense Atletico MG Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense wins | 43.24% | 2.5 at Stake |
| Under 2.5 | 61.94% | 1.93 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 40.42% | 2.38 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Fluminense | 21.21% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Fluminense vs Atletico MG Form
Fluminense and Atletico MG Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
24 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
20 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
17 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
13 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Sep 2024 - Copa do Brasil
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
24 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
20 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
Fluminense against Atletico MG : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
24 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
4 May 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Oct 2023 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Jun 2023 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Oct 2022 - Brasileirão Serie A
8 Jun 2022 - Brasileirão Serie A
Fluminense against Atletico MG Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Fluminense - Atletico MG Key Points
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in seven of Atletico Mineiro’s last nine games.
- Fluminense have seen under 2.5 goals scored in two of their last three.
- The hosts see an average of only 1.96 goals scored in the Brazilian league this season.
- Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have stayed under 2.5 goals.
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Our Fluminense vs Atletico MG Prediction
This should be a tight game beween two opponents who knew each other well. With this being the first leg, we don't expect either side to be too gung-ho; Fluminense certainly won't want to have to overturn a deficit in Belo Horizonte, while Atletico Mineiro would be content in escaping Rio with a draw.
Therefore, we believe this has all the makings of a low-scoring match. Fluminense have been stingy when playing at the Maracaná and the majority of the recent head-to-head results between these two have only seen a goal or two. Our Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro prediction: under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Fluminense Atletico MG
| Fluminense vs Atletico MG | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense wins | 2.5 | 2.45 | -2.0% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 2.75 | -11.3% |
| Atletico MG wins | 3 | 3.5 | +16.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Fluminense is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 40.8% (0.8%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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