South America - Copa Libertadores
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Flamengo vs CA Penarol Montevideo Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa Libertadores
by Joseph King in Copa Libertadores Predictions
Two of the Copa Libertadores’ historically most successful teams face off when Flamengo hosts Peñarol for the quarter-final first leg. Let’s get into the prediction for this match between Mengão and Carboneros.
Flamengo are three-time Copa Libertadores winners with their last triumph coming in the 2022 season. Along with Palmeiras, the two Brazilian clubs have dominated this competition for the previous four years prior to Fluminense claiming last year’s title.
The hosts advanced to this stage of the competition following a 2-1 aggregate victory over Bolivar despite losing the second leg 1-0. Flamengo’s most recent result was a 1-1 away draw with Vasco in the Brasileiro Serie A at the weekend. In their five matches since their second leg defeat to Bolivar, Mengão have posted a solid 3-1-1 record.
After missing out on the Copa Libertadores last year, five-time champions Peñarol have returned in style. 2024 marks their first appearance in the quarter-finals since finishing as runners-up in 2010/11.
The Uruguayan giants were able to overcome Bolivian side The Strongest in the round of 16 after a 4-0 first leg victory at home all but sealed their progression. Peñarol are experiencing a fantastic 2024 where they are unbeaten over 18 matches in the Apertura and Clausura of their domestic league.
Peñarol’s last outing saw them cruise to a 4-0 home win over Rampla in the Uruguayan Primera Division. However, it was only their second win over their last five fixtures across all competitions. Peñarol suffered away defeats to The Strongest (1-0) in the second leg of the Libertadores and Piriapolis (3-0) in the Copa Uruguay.
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The Best Betting Odds for Flamengo v CA Penarol Montevideo Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.4 | 4.1 | 9.5 |
|
|
1.7 | 2.75 | 6 |
|
|
1.43 | 4.6 | 8.05 |
|
|
1.43 | 4.6 | 8.05 |
|
|
1.44 | 3.9 | 8.75 |
|
|
1.44 | 4.1 | 8.6 |
|
|
1.44 | 4.1 | 8.6 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.1 | 8.6 |
|
|
1.41 | 4.54 | 7.9 |
|
|
1.44 | 4.7 | 7.6 |
|
|
1.33 | 4.6 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.52 | 4.1 | 6.1 |
|
|
1.4 | 3.7 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.42 | 4.1 | 9.4 |
|
|
1.4 | 4.2 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.43 | 4.5 | 8 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Flamengo and CA Penarol Montevideo?
Our prediction for the Flamengo vs CA Penarol Montevideo match is: Flamengo to win + under 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 19/09/2024 between Flamengo and CA Penarol Montevideo in Copa Libertadores :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.75% for a win of Flamengo against CA Penarol Montevideo with odds of 1.7 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Flamengo vs CA Penarol Montevideo is 26.11% with odds of 4.7 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.14% chance ⭐ for a win of CA Penarol Montevideo vs Flamengo with odds of 9.5 at Bet365.
Flamengo - CA Penarol Montevideo Prediction and Best Odds:
| Flamengo CA Penarol Montevideo Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Flamengo wins | 44.75% | 1.7 at Ladbrokes |
| Under 2.5 | 70.19% | 1.98 at Vbet |
| Both Team To Score | 39.58% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Flamengo | 24.68% | 4.2 at Unibet |
Flamengo vs CA Penarol Montevideo Form
Flamengo and CA Penarol Montevideo Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Sep 2024 - Copa do Brasil
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
25 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
22 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Sep 2024 - Copa do Brasil
25 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
15 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
11 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
31 Jul 2024 - Copa do Brasil
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
22 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
18 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
7 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
3 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2024 - Primera Division
7 Sep 2024 - Primera Division
21 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
17 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
14 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
4 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2024 - Primera Division
17 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
14 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
27 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
21 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
9 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Sep 2024 - Primera Division
21 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
4 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
14 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
22 Jun 2024 - Primera Division
8 Jun 2024 - Primera Division
Flamengo vs CA Penarol Montevideo Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
50 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 May 2019 - Copa Libertadores
3 Apr 2019 - Copa Libertadores
Flamengo against CA Penarol Montevideo Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Most goals and assists
Flamengo
CA Penarol Montevideo
Pedro
(16 Goals)
L. Fernandez
(19 Goals)
Gerson
(8 Assists)
L. Fernandez
(6 Assists)
Flamengo - CA Penarol Montevideo Key Points
- Flamengo are a perfect 4-0-0 at home in this competition.
- The hosts have scored 11 goals and are yet to concede in those four matches.
- Three of Flamengo’s four home matches in the Copa Libertadores have resulted in a win + under 3.5 goals.
- Penarol have lost three of their four Copa Libertadores away fixtures.
- There have been under 3.5 goals in three of the visitors’ four away Libertadores matches.
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Our Flamengo vs CA Penarol Montevideo Prediction
Both Flamengo and Peñarol have built their successful Copa Libertadores campaigns off of their strong home form. They are each yet to drop points at home, where they both have a perfect four wins from four. Additionally, both teams have struggled on the road where they have only a single win between them in eight attempts so far.
We like hosts Flamengo to secure an aggregate lead to take back to Montevideo, although the visitors will surely be out to limit the damage. Our Flamengo vs Peñarol prediction: Flamengo to win and under 3.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Flamengo CA Penarol Montevideo
| Flamengo vs CA Penarol Montevideo | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo wins | 1.44 | 1.4 | -2.8% |
| Draw | 4.5 | 4.1 | -8.9% |
| CA Penarol Montevideo wins | 7 | 9.5 | +35.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Flamengo is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 69.4% and is now 71.4% (2.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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