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Estonia vs Sweden Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
by Ian John in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Estonia will be seeking a historic first in their Nations League game with Sweden. An inaugural win against Sweden at the 21st attempt is on offer for the Baltic side. The Blueshirts earned a rare win over Azerbaijan but face a Swedish team unbeaten in this group, including a win and a draw away from home. Will our prediction favour a surprise home win or will the Blue and Yellow land an expected victory in the match?
Aside from wins in the Baltic Cup, Estonia’s form is dismal. Their 3-1 win over Azerbaijan on Matchday Three was their first since 2023 outside of the minor Baltic Cup tournament. It left Jurgen Henn’s team in third place in the group on three points, four points behind Slovakia and their opponents today.
Prior to that Estonia had lost 1-0 at ome to Slovakia and then 3-0 away to Sweden on Matchdays One and Two. Estonia has scored just one goal in the last seven games against Sweden, losing six.
As such, Jon Dahl Tomasson’s Swedish team are the bookmakers' choice to land a relatively easy win in Tallinn. Having missed out on Euro 2024 in the summer, the Swedes began their Nations League campaign strongly earning a 3-1 win in Azerbaijan and following that up with a 3-0 home win over Estonia.
They faced their toughest test on Matchday Three and led 2-0 away to Slovakia, before the home side pulled two goals back to claim a 2-2 draw. The result left Sweden top of the group on goal difference ahead of Slovakia, who are both four points clear of Estonia.
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The Best Betting Odds for Estonia v Sweden Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
12 | 6.5 | 1.22 |
|
|
8.5 | 3.4 | 1.44 |
|
|
15.7 | 6.78 | 1.22 |
|
|
15.7 | 6.78 | 1.22 |
|
|
14.5 | 6.25 | 1.2 |
|
|
14 | 6.7 | 1.2 |
|
|
14 | 6.7 | 1.2 |
|
|
12 | 6.2 | 1.2 |
|
|
14 | 7 | 1.19 |
|
|
13 | 6.2 | 1.22 |
|
|
17 | 7.2 | 1.2 |
|
|
12 | 6.5 | 1.2 |
|
|
13 | 6.1 | 1.23 |
|
|
13 | 6 | 1.14 |
|
|
13 | 6.5 | 1.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Estonia and Sweden?
Our prediction for the Estonia vs Sweden match is: Sweden to win to nil.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/10/2024 between Estonia and Sweden in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 28.15% for a win of Estonia against Sweden with odds of 17 at Vbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Estonia vs Sweden is 14.73% with odds of 7.2 at Vbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 57.12% chance ⭐ for a win of Sweden vs Estonia with odds of 1.44 at Ladbrokes.
Estonia - Sweden Prediction and Best Odds:
| Estonia Sweden Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden wins | 57.12% | 1.44 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.51% | 1.81 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 48.96% | 2.3 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time / Full-time: Sweden/Sweden | 25.21% | 1.75 at Unibet |
Estonia vs Sweden Form
Estonia and Sweden's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
16 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
|
3
|
4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 |
Estonia and Sweden Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jun 2024 - Baltic Cup
8 Jun 2024 - Baltic Cup
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Jun 2024 - Baltic Cup
16 Nov 2023 - Euro
17 Oct 2023 - International Friendlies
13 Oct 2023 - Euro
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Jun 2024 - Baltic Cup
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
21 Mar 2024 - Euro
12 Jan 2024 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
5 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
12 Jan 2024 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2023 - Euro
12 Oct 2023 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
21 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2023 - Euro
9 Sep 2023 - Euro
Estonia vs Sweden Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Sep 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Jan 2024 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2023 - Euro
9 Sep 2023 - Euro
Estonia against Sweden Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Most goals and assists
Estonia
Sweden
V. Sinyavskiy
(1 Goals)
,
I. Yakovlev
(1 Goals)
,
R. Shein
(1 Goals)
V. Gyokeres
(9 Goals)
R. Shein
(1 Assists)
V. Gyokeres
(5 Assists)
Estonia - Sweden Key Points
- Outside of the Baltic Cup, Estonia have won one of their last 17 games.
- Sweden are unbeaten in three Nations League matches so far, two of which have been away from home.
- Estonia has never beaten Sweden.
- Sweden has won six of the last seven matches against Estonia without conceding a goal.
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Our Estonia vs Sweden Prediction
Our prediction for the Estonia vs. Sweden Nations League Group C1 match is: Sweden to win to nil.
To say Estonia's record against Sweden is dismal is an understatement. A 3-0 defeat when the teams last met is one of the better results the team has achieved against Sweden over the years. Sweden's good form, including an unbeaten away record in this group, means that the data strongly points to them winning this fixture without conceding a goal. That's despite a rare Estonian win in their previous game.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Estonia Sweden
| Estonia vs Sweden | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia wins | 11 | 12 | +9.1% |
| Draw | 6 | 6.5 | +8.3% |
| Sweden wins | 1.25 | 1.22 | -2.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Sweden is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 80.0% and is now 82.0% (2.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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