World - World Cup
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
Ecuador vs Paraguay Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
by Joseph King in World Cup Predictions
Matchday nine of the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign sees fourth-place Ecuador playing host to seventh-placed Paraguay in Quito on Thursday. An important three points are on the line, so let’s get into the match prediction as La Tri take on La Albirroja.
Ecuador have performed well even in the face of a three-point deduction due to falsifying a player's birth documents. They've won four, drawn two and lost two of their first eight qualifying matches. Their total of 11 points sees them trailing third-place Uruguay by four points and leading both fifth-placed Brazil and sixth-place Venezuela by one point. With the top six places earning automatic qualification, the full three points here could be key.
Last time out, La Tri secured themselves a 1-0 home victory over Peru with record scorer Enner Valencia netting the winner. It was a much-needed response after being winless in their previous three.
After a slow start saw them gain just a single point from their first three 2026 World Cup qualifying matches, Paraguay have turned things around. They’ve now lost just once in their last five qualifying matches, picking up two wins and two draws to raise their points total to nine.
This sees them occupying the intercontinental playoff spot in seventh, giving them a goal differential lead over eighth-place Bolivia and seeing them trail sixth-place by just a single point.
In their last appearance, Paraguay pulled off an upset victory at home as they beat Brazil 1-0. It was their first win in four matches after a disappointing Copa America saw them lose all three group stage games.
Limited Offer. Currently at DraftKings
The Best Betting Odds for Ecuador v Paraguay Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.5 | 3.6 | 9 |
|
|
1.6 | 3.6 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.53 | 3.56 | 8.6 |
|
|
1.53 | 3.56 | 8.6 |
|
|
1.54 | 3.5 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.62 | 3.52 | 6.6 |
|
|
1.62 | 3.52 | 6.6 |
|
|
1.52 | 3.65 | 7.8 |
|
|
1.6 | 3.56 | 6.85 |
|
|
1.58 | 3.6 | 6.6 |
|
|
1.55 | 3.74 | 8.2 |
|
|
1.53 | 3.6 | 7 |
|
|
1.56 | 3.65 | 8 |
|
|
1.44 | 3.5 | 8 |
|
|
1.55 | 3.6 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.65 | 3.25 | 6 |
|
Limited Offer. Currently at DraftKings
What is the prediction for the football match between Ecuador and Paraguay?
Our prediction for the Ecuador vs Paraguay match is: Ecuador to win.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/10/2024 between Ecuador and Paraguay in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 60.41% for a win of Ecuador against Paraguay with odds of 1.65 at William Hill.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Ecuador vs Paraguay is 18.57% with odds of 3.74 at Vbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.02% chance ⭐ for a win of Paraguay vs Ecuador with odds of 9 at Bet365.
Ecuador - Paraguay Prediction and Best Odds:
| Ecuador Paraguay Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ecuador wins | 60.41% | 1.65 at William Hill |
| Under 2.5 | 50.39% | 1.88 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 47.92% | 2.85 at Betsson |
| Half-time / Full-time : Ecuador/Ecuador | 27.98% | 2.45 at Ladbrokes |
Ecuador vs Paraguay Form
Ecuador and Paraguay's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
19 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
|
6
|
17 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Ecuador and Paraguay Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Sep 2024 - World Cup
6 Sep 2024 - World Cup
4 Jul 2024 - Copa America
30 Jun 2024 - Copa America
26 Jun 2024 - Copa America
22 Jun 2024 - Copa America
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Sep 2024 - World Cup
26 Jun 2024 - Copa America
22 Jun 2024 - Copa America
16 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
12 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
21 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sep 2024 - World Cup
4 Jul 2024 - Copa America
30 Jun 2024 - Copa America
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2023 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Sep 2024 - World Cup
6 Sep 2024 - World Cup
2 Jul 2024 - Copa America
28 Jun 2024 - Copa America
24 Jun 2024 - Copa America
16 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Sep 2024 - World Cup
28 Jun 2024 - Copa America
21 Nov 2023 - World Cup
17 Oct 2023 - World Cup
7 Sep 2023 - World Cup
18 Jun 2023 - International Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sep 2024 - World Cup
2 Jul 2024 - Copa America
24 Jun 2024 - Copa America
16 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
11 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
Ecuador vs Paraguay Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
24 Mar 2022 - World Cup
2 Sep 2021 - World Cup
Players list
H. Galindez
DefenderW. Pacho
C. Ramirez
J. Sarmiento
F. Torres
P. Hincapie
MidfielderL. Campana
A. Minda
M. Caicedo
A. Franco
ForwardJ. Yeboah
Gatito Fernandez
DefenderJ. Caceres
S. Arzamendia
G. Gomez
F. Balbuena
O. Alderete
MidfielderA. Romero
M. Villasanti
A. Cubas
ForwardR. Sosa
I. Pitta
Substitutes
M. Ramirez
G. Valle
DefenderJ. Chavez
C. Ramirez
J. Ordonez
MidfielderO. Zambrano
J. Yeboah
P. Vite
ForwardJ. Sarmiento
L. Campana
A. Minda
K. Rodriguez
J. Espinola
C. Coronel
DefenderS. Arzamendia
S. Salcedo
G. Velazquez
MidfielderM. Villasanti
M. Galarza
ForwardA. Oviedo
R. Sosa
A. Sanabria
I. Pitta
A. Romero
Most goals and assists
Ecuador
Paraguay
E. Valencia
(3 Goals)
A. Sanabria
(4 Goals)
Ecuador - Paraguay Key Points
- Paraguay are winless in their four away matches in this competition, losing two and drawing two.
- Ecuador are unbeaten on home soil in this competition, winning three and drawing once.
- Ecuador ran out 2-0 winners over Paraguay the last time they met in Quito.
- Paraguay have lost three of their last five matches across all competitions.
Limited Offer. Currently at DraftKings
Our Ecuador vs Paraguay Prediction
Both teams come into this matchup off the back of important wins, which should make this an entertaining game. Ecuador certainly have the edge, however, as they have been excellent on home soil so far with wins over Uruguay, Chile, Peru and drawing with Colombia.
The Paraguayans will be feeling good after their victory over Brazil, but they will now have to reconcile with the fact that they are yet to win outside of Paraguay. We should see the hosts walk away with the three points when it’s all said and done. Our Ecuador vs Paraguay prediction: Ecuador to win.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Ecuador Paraguay
| Ecuador vs Paraguay | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador wins | 1.55 | 1.5 | -3.2% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0% |
| Paraguay wins | 6.5 | 9 | +38.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Ecuador is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 3.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 64.5% and is now 66.7% (2.2%)
10% Daily cashback up to €100
As a verified customer of Vbet, you can gain 10% of your daily losses back as a free bet of up to €100. This is valid on all single and multiple bets. Every day when you make an overall loss of at least €5 on events on the sportsbook, you can win the cashback as a free bet. The free bet that you receive has a five-day expiry on it and can be used on any sports bet. It will be credited the following day once Vbet has calculated all accounts from the day prior. Losses that come from using free bets or bonus money will not be counted towards any potential cashback that you receive.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
Limited Offer. Currently at DraftKings
