Croatia vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips - Euro
by Ian John in Euro Predictions
If you love the drama of international knockout football, then Croatia v Italy on Monday night should be a cracker! Italy needs a win, or a draw and Albania not to win, to be assured of second in the group.
For Croatia, they must win and hope Albania fail to do so, in order to finish second.
A draw would eliminate Croatia in all likelihood as their two points would not be enough to qualify as one of the best third-place teams in this tournament.
History is on the side of the Croatians, who have not lost any of their last eight to Italy, but they have only had three wins in that run with the other five matches all drawn.
With two high-quality teams set to battle it out to stay in the tournament, Monday Night's Italy v Croatia game could be one of the best games of Euro 2024!
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The Best Betting Odds for Croatia v Italy Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.08 | 8 | 151 |
|
|
3 | 3 | 2.5 |
|
|
1.07 | 9 | 151 |
|
|
1.07 | 9 | 151 |
|
|
3.26 | 2.88 | 2.5 |
|
|
1.06 | 9.25 | 100 |
|
|
3.26 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.35 | 2.3 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Croatia and Italy?
Our prediction for the Croatia vs Italy match is: Croatia and Italy to draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 6/24/24 between Croatia and Italy in Euro :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.89% for a win of Croatia against Italy with odds of 3.26 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Croatia vs Italy is 29.57% with odds of 9.25 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 37.54% chance ⭐ for a win of Italy vs Croatia with odds of 151 at Bet365.
Croatia - Italy Prediction and Best Odds:
| Croatia Italy Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 37.54% | 151 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.06% | 2.34 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 42.86% | 1.95 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Italy | 17.69% | 6 at Bet365 |
Croatia vs Italy Form
Croatia and Italy's standings in the Euro
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
|
3
|
2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
Croatia and Italy Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
8 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
3 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jun 2024 - Euro
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
21 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
Croatia - Italy: Form Analysis
Italy's defeat to Spain was their first in eight games, but the lack of attacking threat against the Spanish will likely give manager Luciano Spalletti pause for thought. Especially considering this is a game that they cannot afford to lose.
At the back of his mind will be the Italian's poor record against Croatia. They have not won any of the last eight games between the two teams, drawing five, but losing three. While Croatia have not been at their best in this tournament, it is also obvious that after a 2-1 win over Albania and a 1-0 defeat to Spain, that Italy are not firing on all cylinders either.
Croatia's exasperation at the end of the 2-2 draw with Albania was clearly evident.
A win would have taken the pressure off them somewhat in this game. Now, with just one point and bottom of the group, Croatia knows nothing less than a win over Italy will suffice.
They certainly have the players to do it in terms of quality. But at this tournament, their quality players in midfield have not been as dominant and have struggled defensively. Meanwhile their key attacking players have failed to show ruthlessness in front of goal.
Croatia certainly can count on a good record against Italy. They have not lost to Italy since 1942. Since Croatia gained independence in 1990, they have not lost to the Italians, winning three and drawing five games.
However, a win here would certainly be their biggest-ever victory over Italy in their relatively short history.
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Croatia against Italy Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
N. Vlasic
R. Calafiori
Croatia & Italy Squad Analysis
Several players were criticized in the Italian press after Italy's defeat to Spain. Gianluca Scamacca could be set for the axis with Mateo Retegui expected to come in for the Atalanta striker. Bryan Cristante may also come in for Jorginho in midfield, Matteo Darmian could be given a chance at full-back after Federico Dimarco and Andrea Cambaso struggled against Spain.
Only Nicolo Barella, Gianluigi Donnarumma and Alessandro Bastoni are likely to be certain to be in the first XI in a game where Spalletti could elect to ring the changes. Especially against a team who have proven to be something of a bogey team for Italy over the years.
Ante Budimir's impressive contributions from the bench against Albania could see him earn a starting spot in place of Bruno Petkovic for this game. Another change could be at full back where Borna Sosa could come in for Ivan Perisic, who was largely anonymous against Albania.
Zlatko Dalic is unlikely to break up his trusted midfield triumvirate for the game with Spain, so Modric, Brozovic and Kovacic should all start. However, don't be surprised if Atalanta's Mario Pasalic is introduced into the game should Croatia need a goal.
Croatia - Italy Key Points
- A draw would be sufficient for Italy to secure second place and qualify for the knockout phase.
- In their last four games, Croatia have scored seven goals, but also conceded six.
- Italy scored two goals and conceded two goals in Euro 2024.
- The teams have met five times in European Championship qualifying and finals, drawing four of those games.
- All of the last three meetings between Italy and Croatia have finished as a 1-1 draw.
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Our Croatia vs Italy Prediction
Our prediction for Croatia v Italy in Group B of Euro 2024 is for Croatia and Italy to draw.
Italy require just a point to ensure they finish second in the Group behind Spain and the history of this fixture suggests that this is on the cards given that five of the nine games played between the two teams have finished as draws.
Croatia must win the game and so you would expect them to be more attack-minded in the match. That may play into Italy's hands, though, who can hit their opponents on the counterattack.
The data shows both teams have been scoring and conceding goals in equal measure in recent times too. As such, we think the draw is the best option to back here.
Croatia vs Italy - Other Interesting Predictions
Federico Chiesa (Italy) to score at any time
Arguably Italy's most dynamic attacking player, Federico Chiesa has been relatively quiet in Euro 2024 so far. However, his pace and dribbling ability will come to the fore in this game, where he could be Italy's main outlet on the counterattack.
With Italy's central strikers not having found the net in the tournament as yet, Chiesa looks most likely to be the man to ignite the attack and earn Italy the result they need to move into the knockout phase.
Therefore, our secondary prediction here is for Chiesa to score at any time in this game.
Draw and Both Teams to Score
Our primary prediction was for this game to finish as a draw and given the abundance of attacking talent available to both managers, the odds look good that both will also find the net in this game.
Croatia have scored plenty of goals in recent games, but have also conceded a fair few notably against Spain in their Euro 2024 opener. Italy have been a little more shot-shy, but have also generally conceded fewer goals too.
The history of these two nations also suggests a scoring draw as four of the five matches they have played in the European Championships, both in qualifying and in the Finals tournament, have finished as a draw. That includes the last three games which all finished 1-1.
As such, our final secondary prediction for this game is for both teams to score and the match to finish as a draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Croatia Italy
| Croatia vs Italy | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia wins | 3.3 | 1.08 | -67.3% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 8 | +142.4% |
| Italy wins | 2.25 | 151 | +6,611.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Italy is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6,611.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 44.4% and is now 0.7% (-43.8%)
Euro 2024 Welcome Offer
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The first £10 free bet will be given within 24 hours of your qualifying bet being settled and the second within 24 hours of your first free bet being settled. The free bets are also to be used on multiples of three or more legs, the same as the qualifying bet. Free bets are valid for five days and the stake is not returned with any winnings. Cash out invalidates your qualifying bet and is not available on your free bets. This offer is only available to new accounts from the UK only.
Croatia vs Italy match : Frequently asked questions
BBC One will be showing the Croatia vs Italy Group B game live. The game will also be available on the BBC Sport website and also on BBC iPlayer.
For all the latest stats from the game, updated second-by-second, check out the Euro 2024 Livescore page at Sportytrader - an ideal companion to every Euro 2024 fixture for betting and football fans!
Italy and Croatia have met nine times in their history. Croatia have won just three of those nine games, Italy winning just once, while five games have been drawn.
That includes four of the five times they have put in European Championship action (four qualifying games and one finals game).
All of the last three matches between the two teams have finished 1-1.
Italy's sole win over Croatia came back in 1942. They have not won any of the eight games since.
The Red Bull Arena in Leipzig will play host to the decisive Euro 2024 Group B clash between Croatia and Italy on Monday evening.
It is the ground where Bundesliga I side Red Bull Leipzig play their home games.
Italy will finish second in Group B behind Spain if they win or draw with Croatia, thus qualifying them for the Round of 16.
However, if Italy lose, they would require Albania to draw or lose against Spain in order to finish third in the group. They may then be able to qualify for the Round of 16 as one of the four best third-place teams in the group stage.
Croatia must win to stand any chance of reaching the Round of 16, a draw would not be enough.
Croatia must beat Italy and hope Albania lose or draw with Spain in order to finish second in the group. However if both Croatia and Albania win, then Croatia would need to overturn a -2 goal difference on Albania to finish above them in second place. In this situation though, whoever finishes third in the group would have four points and likely enough to qualify for the Round of 16 as one of the best third-place teams.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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