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Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
by Ian John in Premier League Predictions
Chelsea host Newcastle United in a Premier League clash brimming with attacking intent! Will our prediction back the home team Blues for the win, or can the Magpies get full value from their trip south and take the win in this close match?
Enzo Maresca will be pleased with the start he has made at Chelsea. Lying sixth in the table after eight games and having played both Liverpool and Manchester City, that is not too bad a return for the Londoners. A win here would certainly help them push on towards that top four and a chance to get back into the Champions League chase.
Newcastle are ninth in the table with 12 points but manager Eddie Howe will probably feel his team should have at least three more points. A disappointing run of just two points from the last dozen available has hampered Newcastle’s progress and meant they failed to capitalise on a good start of three wins and a draw in their first four matches.
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The Best Betting Odds for Chelsea v Newcastle Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.75 | 4.2 | 4 |
|
|
1.75 | 4 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.77 | 4.38 | 4.28 |
|
|
1.77 | 4.38 | 4.28 |
|
|
1.74 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.8 | 4.16 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.8 | 4.16 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.75 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.73 | 4.26 | 4.16 |
|
|
1.75 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.88 | 4 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.79 | 4.25 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.8 | 4 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.82 | 4.2 | 4.15 |
|
|
1.73 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Newcastle?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Newcastle match is: A Draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 27/10/2024 between Chelsea and Newcastle in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48% for a win of Chelsea against Newcastle with odds of 1.88 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Newcastle is 35.14% with odds of 4.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 16.86% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Chelsea with odds of 4.4 at Vbet.
Chelsea - Newcastle Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Newcastle Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 48% | 1.88 at Betway |
| Under 2.5 | 50.55% | 5.2 at Vbet |
| Both Team To Score | 66.25% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Chelsea/Chelsea | 26.49% | 2.88 at Bet365 |
Chelsea vs Newcastle Form
Chelsea and Newcastle's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
35 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
|
8
|
26 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Chelsea and Newcastle Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Oct 2024 - Conference League
20 Oct 2024 - Premier League
6 Oct 2024 - Premier League
3 Oct 2024 - Conference League
28 Sep 2024 - Premier League
24 Sep 2024 - Carabao Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Oct 2024 - Premier League
3 Oct 2024 - Conference League
28 Sep 2024 - Premier League
24 Sep 2024 - Carabao Cup
1 Sep 2024 - Premier League
22 Aug 2024 - Conference League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Oct 2024 - Conference League
20 Oct 2024 - Premier League
21 Sep 2024 - Premier League
14 Sep 2024 - Premier League
29 Aug 2024 - Conference League
25 Aug 2024 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Oct 2024 - Premier League
5 Oct 2024 - Premier League
1 Oct 2024 - Carabao Cup
28 Sep 2024 - Premier League
21 Sep 2024 - Premier League
15 Sep 2024 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Oct 2024 - Premier League
1 Oct 2024 - Carabao Cup
28 Sep 2024 - Premier League
1 Sep 2024 - Premier League
17 Aug 2024 - Premier League
10 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2024 - Premier League
21 Sep 2024 - Premier League
15 Sep 2024 - Premier League
28 Aug 2024 - Carabao Cup
25 Aug 2024 - Premier League
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
Chelsea vs Newcastle Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
11 Mar 2024 - Premier League
19 Dec 2023 - Carabao Cup
25 Nov 2023 - Premier League
28 May 2023 - Premier League
12 Nov 2022 - Premier League
13 Mar 2022 - Premier League
Chelsea - Newcastle: Form Analysis
Strangely, Chelsea’s home form hasn’t been particularly impressive this season. They have lost just once, but also won once, drawing twice. Last weekend, they suffered a second defeat of the season going down 2-1 at Anfield to leaders Liverpool. A result which left them sixth in the table with 14 points.
A much-changed Chelsea team was in action in midweek in the Europa Conference League, where they landed their second successive win in the competition with a 4-1 victory over Greek side Panathinaikos. A result which sets them up nicely for the visit of Newcastle.
It should certainly be a closely fought contest. Five of the last six games between the two have either finished as a draw or seen one of the teams win by one goal, or via a penalty shootout.
The home team has also won five of the last eight.
Newcastle will be keen to try and end that sequence, but with just one win in four away games this season, it could be a big ask to do that at Stamford Bridge. Eddie Howe’s team are without a win in their last four Premier League games, so could do with breaking that run here.
Their last game was last weekend at home to Brighton where despite having plenty of chances, they ended up on the wrong end of a 1-0 defeat.
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Players list
R. Sanchez
DefenderR. James
W. Fofana
L. Colwill
M. Cucurella
MidfielderM. Caicedo
E. Fernandez
C. Palmer
ForwardM. Mudryk
P. Neto
C. Nkunku
N. Pope
DefenderT. Livramento
F. Schar
D. Burn
L. Kelly
MidfielderS. Longstaff
B. Guimaraes
J. Murphy
ForwardW. Osula
A. Isak
J. Willock
Substitutes
F. Jorgensen
DefenderR. Veiga
T. Adarabioyo
M. Cucurella
E. Fernandez
M. Mudryk
C. Nkunku
J. Sancho
J. Felix
J. Ruddy
O. Vlachodimos
DefenderE. Krafth
L. Kelly
L. Miley
J. Murphy
J. Willock
S. Longstaff
W. Osula
Missing players
B. Badiashile
ForwardO. Kellyman
J. Lascelles
S. Botman
ForwardC. Wilson
Chelsea & Newcastle Squad Analysis
There is much better news on the injury front for Chelsea than there has been for a long time. Only long-term injured absentee Omari Kellyman is unavailable for this game.
That means the likes of Reece James, Ben Chilwell, Carney Chukwuemeka, Malo Gusto and Benoit Badiashile, who have all had injuries recently, are in contention to play.
Manager Enzo Maresca made 11 changes for the game with Panathinaikos. That may well give Newcastle United an idea of who will play against them this weekend with the Italian electing to rest all of the players who played in the loss to Liverpool last weekend.
Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson are certainly two to watch.
Between them, the pair have contributed eleven goals for Chelsea in the Premier League this season.
Newcastle United boss Eddie Howe will be without a number of players for this trip south. Goalkeeper Martin Dubravka should be back from a knee injury, but will only start on the bench if selected.
However Kieran Trippier and Callum Wilson are both out until at least November at the earliest, while central defensive duo Sven Botman and Jamaal Lascelles won’t be fit until the New Year.
Striker Alexander Isak, however, should be fit to start.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
Newcastle
C. Palmer
(11 Goals)
A. Isak
(11 Goals)
E. Fernandez
(7 Assists)
J. Murphy
(5 Assists)
, 
B. Guimaraes
(5 Assists)
Chelsea - Newcastle Key Points
- Chelsea have won one, drawn two and lost one at home in the EPL this season.
- Newcastle's away record is the same (W1, D2, L1) as Chelsea's home form.
- Chelsea average 1.5 goals a game at home. Newcastle one goal a game away from home.
- The last two games between the teams at Stamford Bridge have finished 1-1 at the end of 90 minutes.
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Our Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction
Our prediction for Chelsea vs. Newcastle United in the Premier League on Sunday is: A Draw.
The data for this game made it a somewhat tricky one to predict. Both teams recent form has been erratic, but their form matches up well when you look at Chelsea's home and Newcastle's away performances. Recent history suggests this game will be very close and with both teams needing to avoid a defeat in order to stay in contention in the top half of the table, a draw is arguably the sensitive pick here.
Chelsea vs Newcastle - Other Interesting Predictions
Cole Palmer (Chelsea) to score at any time.
Chelsea's sensational midfield starlet Cole Palmer shone in a recent home game against Brighton, scoring four goals. He has netted six this season already, one more than Nicolas Jackson, and he tends to be the focal points of all of Chelsea's best attacking moves.
The England star is fast proving himself to be one of the best players in Europe and if Chelsea are to find the net in this game, backing him to score at any time is a very good secondary betting option.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Chelsea Newcastle
| Chelsea vs Newcastle | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 1.91 | 1.75 | -8.4% |
| Draw | 4 | 4.2 | +5.0% |
| Newcastle wins | 3.5 | 4 | +14.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 8.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.4% and is now 57.1% (4.8%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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