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Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
by Ian John | in Premier League Predictions
Monday Night Football sees Chelsea host Newcastle United at Stamford Bridge, with both sides having endured a season well below the expectations that they would have had at the start of the campaign. The Londoners have won just one of their last five games, although four of those games have come on the road. They were held 2-2 at Brentford last weekend a result which leaves them 11th in the Premier League table, just three places below Newcastle, who have played a game more, but who also have four additional points compared to Chelsea. At home, they have won 5, drawn 3 and lost four games at Stamford Bridge, but they have four wins in their last five in the Premier League on home soil. It has been a tough year for Mauricio Pochettino and his team with a number of players stricken by long-term injuries and the very expensively assembled squad not performing as hoped.
Eddie Howe's Newcastle United team were one of the surprise packages of the Premier League season last year, but they found having a Champions League campaign to compete alongside their league program tough. At present, Newcastle lie 8th in the table, and that is ostensibly because of their poor away form which has seen them win just three games all season on the road, losing 8. At St James' Park, they remain very tough to beat with nine wins from their 14 games and it should be noted that they have lost just one of their last five games, albeit that was a 4-1 thrashing by Arsenal at the Emirates. No teams games average more goals per game than Newcastle in the EPL this season, with Newcastle matches averaging 3.78 goals per game.
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The Best Betting Odds for Chelsea v Newcastle Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.8 | 4 | 3.75 |
|
|
1.83 | 4.2 | 3.75 |
|
|
1.8 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
|
|
1.77 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.85 | 4.26 | 4.16 |
|
|
1.85 | 4.26 | 4.16 |
|
|
1.85 | 4.16 | 3.7 |
|
|
1.85 | 4.16 | 3.7 |
|
|
1.83 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.86 | 4.06 | 3.7 |
|
|
1.82 | 4 | 3.7 |
|
|
1.87 | 4.3 | 3.93 |
|
|
1.83 | 4.2 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.88 | 4.25 | 4 |
|
|
1.95 | 4 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.9 | 4.2 | 3.75 |
|
|
1.8 | 3.9 | 4 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Newcastle?
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/03/2024 between Chelsea and Newcastle in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.07% for a win of Chelsea against Newcastle with odds of 1.95 at Betfair.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Newcastle is 27.39% with odds of 4.4 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 40.55% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Chelsea with odds of 4.16 at 1xbet.
Chelsea - Newcastle Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Newcastle Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 40.55% | 4.16 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.88% | 1.5 at William Hill |
| Both Team To Score | 64.17% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Newcastle | 15.6% | 9.5 at Betfred |
Chelsea vs Newcastle Form
Chelsea and Newcastle's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
|
63 | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
|
7
|
60 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 23 |
Chelsea and Newcastle Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Mar 2024 - Premier League
28 Feb 2024 - FA Cup
25 Feb 2024 - Carabao Cup
17 Feb 2024 - Premier League
12 Feb 2024 - Premier League
7 Feb 2024 - FA Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2024 - FA Cup
25 Feb 2024 - Carabao Cup
4 Feb 2024 - Premier League
26 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
23 Jan 2024 - Carabao Cup
13 Jan 2024 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Mar 2024 - Premier League
17 Feb 2024 - Premier League
12 Feb 2024 - Premier League
7 Feb 2024 - FA Cup
31 Jan 2024 - Premier League
9 Jan 2024 - Carabao Cup
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Mar 2024 - Premier League
27 Feb 2024 - FA Cup
24 Feb 2024 - Premier League
17 Feb 2024 - Premier League
10 Feb 2024 - Premier League
3 Feb 2024 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Mar 2024 - Premier League
17 Feb 2024 - Premier League
3 Feb 2024 - Premier League
13 Jan 2024 - Premier League
26 Dec 2023 - Premier League
16 Dec 2023 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2024 - FA Cup
24 Feb 2024 - Premier League
10 Feb 2024 - Premier League
30 Jan 2024 - Premier League
27 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
6 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
Chelsea vs Newcastle Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
19 Dec 2023 - Carabao Cup
25 Nov 2023 - Premier League
28 May 2023 - Premier League
12 Nov 2022 - Premier League
13 Mar 2022 - Premier League
30 Oct 2021 - Premier League
Chelsea - Newcastle: Form Analysis
Chelsea lie 11th in the Premier League table and in truth, it is a place that they have occupied, more or less, since the very early weeks of the season. The Londoners have struggled to get any degree of consistency in their campaign this season and their trio of wins over Crystal Palace, Luton and Fulham from late December into January was their best run of form in the Premier League this season. Four home wins in a row was ended by Wolves in emphatic fashion last time out at Stamford Bridge, with the Black and Gold winning 4-2 and that came just days after a 4-1 defeat at Anfield to Liverpool, who also beat them in the Carabao Cup Final a week or so later. At times, Chelsea have looked very good, especially in the two draws with Manchester City and the 4-1 win over Tottenham, but in far too many games they have looked disjointed and disorganized.
Newcastle's success last season in qualifying for the Champions League was built on a very tight defense that for a long period was the best in the division. However, that is not the case this time around as the Geordies have shipped 45 goals in the league this season, the second most of any team in the top ten, but in contrast to that, they have also scored 57 goals this season which only the teams in the top four can better. At home, the Magpies have been relatively solid but with just 23% of games away from home ending in victories, it is easy to see where the problem lies with that back line conceding 29 goals in just 13 away matches. Eddie Howe's team are great entertainers but they need to tighten up to get back to winning ways once again.
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Chelsea against Newcastle Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
W. Fofana
R. James
MidfielderR. Lavia
S. Tonali
ForwardC. Wilson
Chelsea & Newcastle Squad Analysis
Mauricio Pochettino could be without up to ten players for this game on Monday Night, although there are a number of players who could still be passed fit for the game. Definitely out of action are long-term injury absentees Wesley Fofana, Romeo Lavia, Lesley Ugochukwu and Reece James. Ben Chilwell is another who is ruled out with a knee issue that requires specialist help. Frenchman Christopher Nkunku is back on the sidelines again and could be out for another extended period. However there is more positive news for Chelsea about Conor Gallagher, who should have recovered from illness, while Benoit Badiashile, Levi Colwill and Carney Chukwuemeka could all feature if they prove their fitness over the weekend. Cole Palmer is fit though and the exciting young midfielder has been Chelsea's most impressive attacking player this season.
For Newcastle, the suspended Sandro Tonali won't be available until September 2024 at the earliest, while Joelinton and Callum Wilson both appear to have played their last games this season as both are ruled out at the end of May. Goalkeeper Nick Pope's shoulder injury is improving but he still remains in rehab and is unlikely to return until early April at the earliest. Kieran Trippier has a slight knock that will keep him out until after the upcoming international break. Lewis Hall is ruled out as he cannot face his parent club but Matt Targett is back in training after a lengthy spell out with injury, although he is likely to only start from the bench if selected.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
Newcastle
C. Palmer
(24 Goals)
A. Isak
(23 Goals)
C. Palmer
(12 Assists)
K. Trippier
(11 Assists)
Chelsea - Newcastle Key Points
- Chelsea's last two games have seen 4 and 5 goals scored in them (winning one, drawing one) and six of their last eight games have seen Over 3.5 goals scored and 7 of those 8 have seen both teams score too.
- Newcastle have lost one of their last eight games in all competitions and that came against Arsenal. 8 of their last nine games have seen over 3.5 goals scored and in the other game, three goals were scored.
- Chelsea have the 12th worst home record in the Premier League, taking 18 points from their 12 home games so far.
- Newcastle United's away record isn't particularly good this season. They have won just 11 points on the road this season and have the 14th best away record of all teams in the Premier League. Their 29 goals conceded is the second most in the division along with Luton and Bournemouth.
- Newcastle won 4-1 when the teams met at St. James' Park earlier in the season. However, in the Carabao Cup quarterfinal at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea won the game on penalties thanks to a very late equaliser that saw them draw 1-1 against the Magpies.
- Newcastle games average four goals per game this season. Chelsea matches average 3.5 goals per game.
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Our Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction
Chelsea vs Newcastle - Other Interesting Predictions
Anthony Gordon (Newcastle) to score at any time
Chelsea vs Newcastle match : Frequently asked questions
The last three games between the two teams have seen a win each and a draw, and extend that to the last five and it is two wins a piece with a draw. That tells you that when these two teams play, it is usually a closely fought contest. However since the 1999 season, Chelsea have enjoyed far more success in the fixture than Newcastle over the years, but the Toon Army have landed some notable wins over that time.
Chelsea have won more games than Newcastle when they have met. The Londoners have 79 wins, while Newcastle have managed to land 56 wins while 40 matches between the two have finished as a draw. They have put 175 times in their history, with the first game coming in 1907.
John Brooks will take charge of his 17th Premier League game of the season when he referees Monday Night Football's big clash between Chelsea and Newcastle United.
Mr Brooks has awarded 70 yellow cards at the rate of 4.38 on average per game, while he has also dished out four red cards, the joint-highest of all referees in the Premier League with Michael Oliver and Robert Jones.
He has refereed both Chelsea and Newcastle twice this season and somewhat unusually, his last two International games refereed saw Portugal beat Luxembourg 9-0 and then France defeat Gibraltar 14-0.
Lee Betts and Neil Davies will be his assistant referees, with Craig Pawson as the fourth official. Jarred Gillett will be VAR duty at Stockley Park, with Adrian Holmes assisting him.
Chelsea's Premier League clash with Newcastle United will be shown live on Sky Sports on Monday Night, kicking off at 8pm UK Time.
However, if you cannot tune in to the game for whatever reason, then you can use your mobile and log in to the Chelsea v Newcastle United pages for real-time data updates and all the action via text commentary.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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