South America - Copa Libertadores
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CA Penarol Montevideo vs Flamengo Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa Libertadores
by Joseph King in Copa Libertadores Predictions
The return leg of the 2024 Copa Libertadores quarter-final sees a battle between two of South America’s most historic clubs as Peñarol hosts Flamengo. Let’s break down the key statistics and offer a prediction for this match between Carboneros and the Rubro-Negro.
Uruguayan giants Peñarol upset the odds in the first leg as they walked out of Rio de Janeiro with a 1-0 away victory. They did a wonderful job of containing this potent Flamengo attack, allowing just one clear cut scoring chance despite conceding 76% of possession. They're now close to a machup in the semi-finals against either Botafogo or São Paulo.
Peñarol will now return to the Estadio Campeón del Siglo with the goal of preserving their slim aggregate lead. The hosts are unbeaten on their home pitch this season, winning 13 and drawing four of their 17 total fixtures across all competitions.
Additionally, Peñarol have won all four of their home fixtures in the Copa Libertadores. Their most notable home victory so far was against Atletico Mineiro where they walked away 2-0 winners in the group stage.
Flamengo couldn’t have asked for a worse time for this Copa Libertadores match with their tournament life on the line. They’re on one of their worst runs of the 2024 season with two losses in a row and only a single win in their last four.
Most recently, Mengão fell to a 3-2 away loss to Gremio in the Brazilian top flight on the weekend. Their struggles on the road have been pronounced as the three-time champions have yet to win an away match in this year’s Libertadores.Limited Offer. Currently at DraftKings
The Best Betting Odds for CA Penarol Montevideo v Flamengo Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.75 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
|
|
2.9 | 3 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.76 | 3.21 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.76 | 3.21 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.7 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.54 | 3.22 | 2.17 |
|
|
3.54 | 3.22 | 2.17 |
|
|
3.9 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.22 | 3.22 | 2.31 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.3 | 2.35 |
|
|
3.93 | 3.08 | 2.12 |
|
|
3.6 | 3.1 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.15 | 3.4 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.8 | 3.1 | 2.05 |
|
|
3.7 | 3.15 | 2.08 |
|
|
3.5 | 3 | 2.1 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between CA Penarol Montevideo and Flamengo?
Our prediction for the CA Penarol Montevideo vs Flamengo match is: Peñarol double chance.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/09/2024 between CA Penarol Montevideo and Flamengo in Copa Libertadores :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 63.99% for a win of CA Penarol Montevideo against Flamengo with odds of 3.93 at Vbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between CA Penarol Montevideo vs Flamengo is 15.86% with odds of 3.4 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 20.15% chance ⭐ for a win of Flamengo vs CA Penarol Montevideo with odds of 2.35 at Tonybet.
CA Penarol Montevideo - Flamengo Prediction and Best Odds:
| CA Penarol Montevideo Flamengo Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| CA Penarol Montevideo wins | 63.99% | 3.93 at Vbet |
| Under 2.5 | 62.22% | 2.15 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 22.92% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: CA Penarol Montevideo | 34.72% | 8 at Betfair |
CA Penarol Montevideo vs Flamengo Form
CA Penarol Montevideo and Flamengo Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sep 2024 - Primera Division
19 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
14 Sep 2024 - Primera Division
7 Sep 2024 - Primera Division
21 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
17 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2024 - Primera Division
17 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
14 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
27 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
21 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
9 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sep 2024 - Primera Division
19 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
7 Sep 2024 - Primera Division
21 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
4 Aug 2024 - Primera Division
14 Jul 2024 - Primera Division
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
19 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Sep 2024 - Copa do Brasil
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Sep 2024 - Copa do Brasil
25 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
15 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
11 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
22 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
18 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
7 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
CA Penarol Montevideo vs Flamengo Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
19 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
8 May 2019 - Copa Libertadores
3 Apr 2019 - Copa Libertadores
CA Penarol Montevideo against Flamengo Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Most goals and assists
CA Penarol Montevideo
Flamengo
L. Fernandez
(19 Goals)
Pedro
(16 Goals)
L. Fernandez
(6 Assists)
Gerson
(8 Assists)
CA Penarol Montevideo - Flamengo Key Points
- Flamengo have drawn or lost in 12 of their 17 league and Copa Libertadores fixtures (70.6%).
- Peñarol are unbeaten at home this season with a 13-4-0 record across all competitions.
- The visitors have managed just one win from their last four outings.
- Peñarol successfully frustrated Flamengo's attack in the first leg, allowing just one clear cut chance.
- Flamengo have conceded in seven of their last nine and gave up five goals in their last two away matches.
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Our CA Penarol Montevideo vs Flamengo Prediction
This is a tough spot for the 2019 and 2022 champions Flamengo. Despite being one of the most talented teams on the continent, they've struggled for consistency all season when playing away from home. They won't get any favors here from a Peñarol side that have turned the Estadio Campeón del Siglo into a fortress.
Peñarol are tantalizingly close to making the semi-finals for the first time since the 2011 season, when they finished as runners-up to Neymar's Santos. With their stellar home form, they should be able to secure at least a draw to put them through. Our Peñarol vs Flamengo prediction: Peñarol double chance.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis CA Penarol Montevideo Flamengo
| CA Penarol Montevideo vs Flamengo | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA Penarol Montevideo wins | 2.88 | 3.75 | +30.2% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.2 | -3.0% |
| Flamengo wins | 2.38 | 2.1 | -11.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- CA Penarol Montevideo is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 30.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 34.7% and is now 26.7% (-8.1%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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