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Burnley vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
by Steve Ashfield | in Championship Predictions
Leeds United can go four points clear at the top of the Championship with an away win at Burnley. They are a point clear of Sheffield United with this game in hand. Burnley are third in the table and will move into second if they get a home win. If that victory was to be by three clear goals, they'd be top of the Championship on goal difference. It's a vital game therefore for both the Whites and Clarets. Read our match prediction below.
Burnley are unbeaten in their last 15 league games but their opponents haven't lost in their last ten matches in the Championship. One of the strengths of Burnley is their defensive record and as you'll read in the form section of this preview, scoring against them is not an easy task at all. Between them, these two sides have only conceded 28 league goals in 56 matches. All of which makes this a fascinating top-of-the-table clash.
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The Best Betting Odds for Burnley v Leeds Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.4 | 3 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.1 | 2.38 |
|
|
3.5 | 2.15 | 2.7 |
|
|
3.43 | 3.04 | 2.33 |
|
|
3.43 | 3.04 | 2.33 |
|
|
3.35 | 3 | 2.4 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.06 | 2.31 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.06 | 2.31 |
|
|
3.35 | 3 | 2.34 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.06 | 2.31 |
|
|
3.45 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
|
|
3.15 | 3.1 | 2.35 |
|
|
3.4 | 3 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.44 | 2.95 | 2.36 |
|
|
3.3 | 2.9 | 2.35 |
|
|
3.45 | 2.93 | 2.28 |
|
|
3.2 | 3 | 2.3 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Burnley and Leeds?
Our prediction for the Burnley vs Leeds match is: under 2.5 goals to be scored.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 27/01/2025 between Burnley and Leeds in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.65% for a win of Burnley against Leeds with odds of 3.5 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Burnley vs Leeds is 38.67% with odds of 3.1 at Betfred.
- Our prediction model gives a 33.68% chance ⭐ for a win of Leeds vs Burnley with odds of 2.7 at Ladbrokes.
Burnley vs Leeds Form
Burnley and Leeds's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
59 | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 34 |
|
3
|
56 | 28 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 27 |
Burnley and Leeds Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Jan 2025 - Championship
21 Jan 2025 - Professional Development League
17 Jan 2025 - Championship
11 Jan 2025 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2025 - Professional Development League
4 Jan 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Jan 2025 - Professional Development League
17 Jan 2025 - Championship
7 Jan 2025 - Professional Development League
1 Jan 2025 - Championship
21 Dec 2024 - Championship
17 Dec 2024 - Professional Development League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Jan 2025 - Championship
11 Jan 2025 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2025 - Championship
29 Dec 2024 - Championship
26 Dec 2024 - Championship
15 Dec 2024 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Jan 2025 - Championship
19 Jan 2025 - Championship
11 Jan 2025 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2025 - Championship
1 Jan 2025 - Championship
29 Dec 2024 - Championship
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Jan 2025 - Championship
19 Jan 2025 - Championship
11 Jan 2025 - FA Cup
1 Jan 2025 - Championship
21 Dec 2024 - Championship
10 Dec 2024 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2025 - Championship
29 Dec 2024 - Championship
26 Dec 2024 - Championship
14 Dec 2024 - Championship
30 Nov 2024 - Championship
24 Nov 2024 - Championship
Burnley vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
20 %
20 %
60 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Sep 2024 - Championship
2 Jan 2022 - Premier League
29 Aug 2021 - Premier League
15 May 2021 - Premier League
27 Dec 2020 - Premier League
Burnley - Leeds: Form Analysis
Burnley are two points behind second-placed Sheffield United and three adrift of Leeds. They'd be top but for drawing 11 league matches this season and only West Brom and Preston have had more stalemates.
The Clarets won their last league game 5-0 at bottom-of-the-table Plymouth Argyle. That was the first time since August that they have scored more than twice in a league fixture. Burnley had only scored once in their previous four Championship matches, three of which ended goalless.
Burnley have the best defensive record in the Championship.
Only nine league goals have been conceded by Burnley this season in 28 games, the best defensive record in the league.
Just four of those were scored against them at Turf Moor but they've only scored 15 themselves. 10 of their 13 home league fixtures have had under 2.5 goals scored in them.
Leeds United will go six points clear of third place if winning this match. They have won their last three league and cup games without conceding. Their most recent league game saw them beat Norwich 2-0 at home.
United are unbeaten in their last ten league matches. Six of their last eight away league games have had under 2.5 goals scored in them.
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Burnley vs Leeds last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Burnley & Leeds Squad Analysis
Welsh international Aaron Ramsey will be missing for Burnley due to a cruciate ligament problem. Also out for the home side are Jordan Beyer and Enock Agyei. Manuel Benson and Nathan Redmond have resumed training but remain doubtful for this game against Leeds.
The chances are that Burnley will play the same starting line-up that played in the 5-0 win at Plymouth Argyle. They will hope for more goals from Zian Flemming who scored twice against Argyle.
United will be without Bamford and Struijk.
Leeds United will be without Patrick Bamford and Pascal Struijk, both of who have hamstring problems. Ethan Ampadu will continue to play in a defensive role for United, who haven't conceded in their last three matches.
Daniel James and Manor Solomon were both on the scoresheet in the recent 2-0 win over Norwich City. They are fully expected to retain their positions so Largie Ramazani is likely to remain a substitute.
Most goals and assists
Burnley
Leeds
J. Brownhill
(9 Goals)
J. Piroe
(10 Goals)
C. Roberts
(3 Assists)
,
J. Anthony
(3 Assists)
,
J. Brownhill
(3 Assists)
J. Piroe
(5 Assists)
, 
M. Solomon
(5 Assists)
, 
G. Wilfried
(5 Assists)
Burnley and Leeds Stats in Championship
Burnley - Leeds Key Points
- Ten of Burnley's 13 home league games this season have had under 2.5 goals scored in them.
- Burnley have only conceded four home league goals this season.
- Only 19 goals have been scored in Burnley's 13 home league fixtures.
- Leeds have played 13 away league games this season with ten having under 2.5 goals scored in them.
- The reverse fixture saw Burnley win 1-0 at Elland Road.
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Our Burnley vs Leeds Prediction
A tight match looks likely in this Championship match between Burnley and Leeds United. Both sides have strong defensive records, particularly the home side. Burnley scored five in their last game against Plymouth but that was a rare goal-spree by them. Three of their last four games have ended 0-0.
Leeds United are also proving difficult to score against in recent weeks with three straight clean sheets. Our main Burnley v Leeds United prediction is under 2.5 goals to be scored.
Burnley vs Leeds - Other Interesting Predictions
Draw and under 2.5 goals scored
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Burnley vs Leeds match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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